Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Inconsistency in the Models

October 21, 2009

4:08 P.M.

Yesterday, it looked like the models were behaving fairly consistently. They all showed a (very) strong jet stream over the area and got the systems for the most part, although they were a little wobbly on some of the details. Now, looking at the models, lots of things have changed. The storm on Sunday, which first looked perhaps major but probably minor, was practically a no-show yesterday and even this morning. But the afternoon 18 UTC GFS shows it as a wet and strong low pressure system that may carry a little wind (but not too bad).

Friday we will see a low pressure front that will stall to some degree over the northern Cascades and southern Vancouver Island.

This picture (sorry facebook users, check the blogspot!) shows the total precipitation in the past 24 hours ending at 5 P.M. Friday. As you can see, the heaviest amounts are centered north of us. Still, we should get a decent shot of rain with this system. Sunday, we may be rain shadowed, but everywhere else will see rain nontheless. After that, we will be under the influence of a cool northwesterly flow, and all the passes (including Snoqualmie) should see snow. I'm not going to attempt to forecast what's going on after that. The models are all over the place.

Thank you!


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