October 25, 2009
Hello fellow weather enthusiasts. Today I am going to talk about the inconsistencies in the weather models regarding the Thursday storm (the same one that I talked about last week, showing a diagram of it way out in the Pacific, possibly leading to flooding over the Pacific Northwest). As you can see with the picture below (again this is exempt to people reading the facebook blog), models used to show an extremely powerful and vigourous low pressure system (around 950 millibars).
That's equivelent to an extremely strong category 3 hurricane. The models showed it stalling and weakening off our coast, but bring it 300 miles closer or so and we could of been talking about a major windstorm in our area.
Now, the models show it heading up into the Alaskan panhandle, a ~1200 mile difference in track. They also show it much weaker, around 985 millibars. (see pic above)
Bottom line: at this point we don't really know what is going to happen, although a weaker storm to the north seems most likely. Stay tuned!