October 29, 2009
People have been begging me to do a forecast for Halloween, so write a forecast I shall .The good news is that Halloween should be fairly dry! But there could be a couple showers roaming throughout the area.
Let's talk about the first event. Tomorrow is a very, very big day for my saxophone teacher, Steve Treseler. He is getting married! And, at this point, it looks like he will be under dry skies. After about 8 o'clock though, when the drunk toasts are over and everyone stumbles back into their vehicles oblivious to what they just said, the rain will start to fall. This rain is the same rain from the remains of tropical Neki, it will just be the cold front.
This system is pretty big area-wise. Last night and today, we got warm frontal precipitation and are now in the "warm sector" of the storm. That means freezing levels are at 10,000 feet or so. Once the cold front comes swinging through though (should be about 2 A.M. Saturday morning), temperatures will drop and the steady rain will cease. Here is a diagram of your typical mid-latitude storm system, and the warm sector is the dry area between the warm and cold fronts.
It's rare to have a completely dry Halloween in Seattle, and I don't think it will be any different this year. However, most of you should be dry. We will have a few showers around, especially in the mountains and north by Everett in a convergence zone, but these showers could pop up anywhere and put a damper (literally :P) on your Halloween night. All and all though, it looks like a pretty dry forecast.
The extended is just rediculously complicated as the models are about as inconsistent as I've ever seen them, but we could see a little bit of a dry period after Halloween.
Of course, you'll know what I'll be wishing for.