tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81992761812660044352024-03-15T18:10:06.195-07:00Charlie's Weather ForecastsWeather, Science, and the Digressions of My MindCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.comBlogger471125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-22739638942533959222016-06-01T14:58:00.000-07:002017-09-07T00:08:31.324-07:00I have moved!Hello everybody!<br />
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Although I have not been posting on here, I have been extremely busy developing a whole new<i> </i>weather website! I'm proud to say that it is finally complete. :)<br />
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As such, I'll be abandoning posting things to this blog (sad face), but believe me, the new website is so much better. It is a <i>multisite network </i>of different weather blogs from across the country and has other features like weather tutorials, weather links, webcams from across the country, and even weather models, just to name a few! I'm really excited about the whole thing and I hope you are too.<br />
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The website is <a href="http://weathertogether.net/">weathertogether.net</a>, and you can check out my personal blog at <a href="http://charlie.weathertogether.net/">charlie.weathertogether.net</a>. </h2>
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Thank you for your continued support over the years!</div>
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Charlie</div>
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Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-69299683318027267062016-05-07T13:44:00.000-07:002016-05-07T13:44:12.342-07:00A New Climate Change MovementThere has been a lot of talk about climate change, and how we need to do everything we can to mitigate it. At the same time, there has been a lot of talk about how the climate is "always changing," and that there's nothing we should or even can do about decreasing our carbon emissions. In the words of Marco Rubio, "I can't pass a law that will change the weather." As this Bernie supporter eloquently states, that approach didn't work out too well for him, <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhCUbE-KUvGqkTtohBk-4ERrmnxSxusCxP_EPQLTidX7dVyWEtupvkUCmeQt-WdIE1RTDSBX5Es7we33Vy_4lYob7_YK3Qdha85LmRkuDnugvGtfbbMVW-tcZeyfoHA0IhKZxgsxPfUd2O/s1600/rubiosign630.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhCUbE-KUvGqkTtohBk-4ERrmnxSxusCxP_EPQLTidX7dVyWEtupvkUCmeQt-WdIE1RTDSBX5Es7we33Vy_4lYob7_YK3Qdha85LmRkuDnugvGtfbbMVW-tcZeyfoHA0IhKZxgsxPfUd2O/s640/rubiosign630.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: Tim Murphy for <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/03/marco-rubio-had-some-really-dumb-things-say-about-climate-change-last-nigh" target="_blank">Mother Jones Magazine</a></td></tr>
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If the threat we were facing from climate change had a different name - say, ISIS, or illegal immigration, or democratic socialism, you can bet your bonnet that these crazy Republicans would be doing all they could to mitigate the problem.<br />
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Why do I bring this up?<br />
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I was having a discussion with some people the other day on climate change and whether it is occurring. Some of the people were skeptics or deniers, but in my opinion, it became clear that their skepticism did not stem from the science itself, but disdain for the media and politicians who supported the scientific consensus on climate change or disseminated alarmist claims. There seemed to be a general hostility towards those who claimed that we were in grave danger from climate change, and a general apathy towards a theorized warmer world in the future. In other words, the debate over a scientific theory was centered around emotion and politics, not science.<br />
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Global warming is an interesting subject because it is truly interdisciplinary in scope. Of course, it has the elements associated with the physical sciences, but it also includes elements of psychology on the largest and smallest scales. It is the epitome of the "tragedy of the commons," where one person's actions do not affect the outcome, but the actions of the population as a whole have a tremendous effect. It involves ecology, sociology, engineering, philosophy, and a plethora of other disciplines. And unfortunately, it invokes irrational emotions in lieu of rational, scientific reasoning.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxrWNXjX9W4w_9OlGjTz0UITON3kRg0LOg0EDfagKTVdH9sWNkurJwm8-zZBLfZsEhyVcuVaXafTbVCZ4VrGf37xc3Kq1Ub_yT4eyiagEDZx0zJIAJIorWvK-iau4LuppZ3d8NT9-VXnwZ/s1600/Cartoon18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxrWNXjX9W4w_9OlGjTz0UITON3kRg0LOg0EDfagKTVdH9sWNkurJwm8-zZBLfZsEhyVcuVaXafTbVCZ4VrGf37xc3Kq1Ub_yT4eyiagEDZx0zJIAJIorWvK-iau4LuppZ3d8NT9-VXnwZ/s640/Cartoon18.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Retrieved from the <a href="http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/07/30/united-states-leads-world-climate-realism" target="_blank">Heartland Institute</a>, a conservative think tank dedicated to questioning the health risks of tobacco and rejecting the scientific consensus on global warming</td></tr>
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Not all sides are guilty of such offenses. Scientists are often antagonized by those who have been brainwashed by the conservative media to believe that they are falsifying their data for their own financial gain, but they are some of the most unbiased people out there when it comes to climate change. They let their results drive their conclusions. Of course, there are a couple notorious bad apples, but I won't mention them here.<br />
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The point of all of this is that the United States has been spectacularly inept in combating climate change. Not only have we not taken swift action in reducing our carbon emissions, we have an entire political party and a large section of the media dedicated to denying climate change altogether. On the other side, many media outlets, politicians, and environmental organizations overstate the dangers of climate change and attribute climate change to every bad thing happening in the world. Both parties pick and choose facts to support their agenda instead of letting the facts speak for themselves, although the GOP is worse. They let their policy pick and choose the data, instead of letting the data inform their policy.<br />
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So, I'm proposing a new, revolutionary climate movement! I call this movement "Climate Realism." I'm open to suggestions if anybody has any different ideas. And just to clarify, there are some organizations (such as the Heartland Institute) which state that "climate realism" is being skeptical or denying global warming is caused by humans. This is not what I am talking about, as those claims are completely wrong.<br />
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Climate Realism involves something that too many climate change organizations (on both sides of the issue) overlook: the scientific method.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs8mSowK66ZMmULEhyrh9fXxQMHdlSxiECz_18phAQzwfQ51bLQUv8znkTn0SVUfT2H_Aof_iyeykjl9kI2niNFTMz6un165_z4sZ_L4E0LvQGJFHkKwKFwX8Wa81My-x4_JYefU71YYPO/s1600/The_Scientific_Method_as_an_Ongoing_Process.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs8mSowK66ZMmULEhyrh9fXxQMHdlSxiECz_18phAQzwfQ51bLQUv8znkTn0SVUfT2H_Aof_iyeykjl9kI2niNFTMz6un165_z4sZ_L4E0LvQGJFHkKwKFwX8Wa81My-x4_JYefU71YYPO/s640/The_Scientific_Method_as_an_Ongoing_Process.svg.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: Wikipedia User <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#/media/File:The_Scientific_Method_as_an_Ongoing_Process.svg" target="_blank">ArchonMagnus</a></td></tr>
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Most of you are probably familiar with the scientific method. You observe what's going on with the world, think of interesting questions, make hypotheses, test and refine your hypotheses, and make conclusions, either as part of an ongoing cycle or just once. If you are using the scientific method to test if dry balsa wood floats on water for a 3rd grade science project, you probably don't need to run through the method several hundred times. It floats. However, with a phenomenon like global warming, we will keep running through the scientific method to learn more and more about global warming. We are constantly observing the world around us, and we are constantly forming new hypotheses and conclusions about how global warming.<br />
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The principal goal of climate realism is to think critically about the environment and our effects on it. This is something that the mainstream media is not very good at, either by ignorance or (more likely) ignoring the science for their own financial gain. For example, a lot of news outlets reported that Hurricane Sandy was a direct result of global warming, and I even saw an article that said that Chris Christie mainly accepted global warming but he was still somewhat of a denier based on the fact that he disagreed with the notion that Sandy was caused by global warming. Without getting into the details, Sandy was caused by a myriad of unlikely factors coming together at the perfect time; the "perfect storm" if you will. Besides, no weather event is directly attributable to global warming - the climate system is far more complex than that.<br />
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However, in this way of thinking, people would be encouraged to think about how much global warming contributed to Sandy's strength, and whether Sandy is a good example of weather events with a high percentage of global warming influence or a low percentage of global warming influence. If we started seeing more Aprils like the one we just had, that would likely be more attributable to global warming than North America having a cold winter. Why do you think they call it global warming?<br />
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But wait - some studies show that Antarctica has been cooling, so surely that must be evidence that global warming is hogwash? Well, a climate realist would not simply jump to conclusions, and if they did enough research, they'd find that the cooling was due to another man-made atmospheric perturbation - the creation of the ozone hole. The ozone hole has been shrinking since CFCs were banned, and as it does so, Antarctica will warm dramatically just like the rest of the world. Besides, some studies have shown that Antarctica is not cooling, and recent studies show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is unstable and could contribute far more to sea-level-rise than we previously imagined.<br />
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Climate realism also seeks to avoid sensationalist claims or fear-mongering. Many environmental organizations such as 350.org have overstated the dangers of climate change in an attempt to encourage people to do the right thing. Unfortunately, these attempts often backfire, as conservative news outlets and politicians often point to their inaccurate claims and predictions to show that climate change is in fact a hoax.<br />
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To sum it up, with this new climate change movement, science leads the way for policy and discussion. Politics don't determine the science behind climate change, but the state of our climate determines what we should do about it. It seems like common sense, but most politicians and the mainstream media don't care much for common sense.<br />
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I'm sorry for being so tardy on this blog; it is because I am working on developing a new, personal weather website with Wordpress software. I am awfully slow at it but I am learning a lot along the way, and as I learn more I'll be able to further customize and spruce up the site. I hope to have a rough version up in the next week or so.<br />
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Thanks for reading!<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-83053174959228971282016-04-26T13:16:00.000-07:002016-04-26T13:16:28.054-07:00Our Corrupt Political System<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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It's not often that I touch on non-science topics in this blog. But I have some thoughts about what's been happening this political season, and I thought I'd share them here. I'm not a political scientist, and I admittedly don't know as much about our government as I should. What I do know, however, is that the system seems more "rigged" than ever before. With caucuses, superdelegates, lobbyists, and the possibility of a contested Republican Convention, this election season has opened my eyes to just how undemocratic the United States voting system is.</div>
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I always knew our voting system wasn't perfect, but it really hit me when Lyin' Ted and 1 for 38 Kasich announced they were "teaming up" and splitting their time and resources to prevent Donald Trump from clinching the nomination. I always despised Lyin' Ted, but I found Kasich somewhat reasonable, so much so that I called him "Good Guy Kasich." But when they announced that they were doing this, I lost even more respect for Lyin' Ted (which I didn't think was possible) and I no longer hold Kasich in as high esteem. I despise Donald Trump, but I actually felt sorry for him, and angry that these politicians were trying to get to a contested convention, where the Republican nominee would be decided by several thousand delegates instead of several million citizens. It's one thing to feel sorry for Bernie with the superdelegate disaster, but when you feel sorry for <i>Donald Trump</i>, you know that something is wrong with either you or the political system. At this point, I'm hoping it's the latter.</div>
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One of my personal heroes, Albert Einstein, once said that "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." I apply this quote to many things in my life, and I think it applies to my political views as well. I would say I am a moderate democrat - more liberal than most, but not as liberal as many of my millennial compadres in uber-liberal Seattle. Like many people my age, I like Bernie Sanders because I think he puts his priorities in the right places. And I also think he's been treated terribly by the party elite.</div>
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As you can see, Clinton holds a substantial lead over Bernie in total delegates. While she leads him substantially in pledged delegates, she <i>really </i>gets a boost from the superdelegates, who are free to back any democratic candidate they so choose. In Washington, Sanders got nearly 3/4ths of the state's vote, but 10 of 17 superdelegates have pledged to support Clinton, including Jay Inslee, our governor. Bernie won 25 delegates in Washington, while Hillary won 9. If Hillary were to hypothetically get all the superdelegates (which wouldn't be that much of a stretch), she would have 26 delegates to Bernie's 25. Doesn't seem fair to me, and it doesn't seem fair to the Republican frontrunner as well.</div>
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If there is a saving grace for Bernie supporters, it's that he has done well in caucuses. I would have liked to go to Washington's democratic caucus, but my plans were already all filled up for the day. If you don't have the free time or resources to go to a caucus, your voice isn't heard. This results in different populations having higher caucus turnout rates, and since many of Bernie's supporters are young, white, middle-class millennials who have the time and resources to go to caucuses, he has done very well in caucus states. On the other hand, Trump, who is very popular with those who have little or no higher education, has not done as well in the caucuses as he has done in the primaries. Keeping in line with the aforementioned Albert Einstein quote, caucuses and superdelegates are unnecessarily complex and unfair, and I would get rid of them if I could.</div>
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However, I think that something even worse is happening in the Republican Party (with regard to party corruption... the nativism, ignorance, and fear-mongering by both Trump and Cruz is downright scary). And that is that the person with the most delegates - by a wide margin - could end up not being the nominee. If Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich or even Jeb! were to get the nomination at a contested convention, that would be an indictment of our voting process as undemocratic. But it's a very real possibility.</div>
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When I first learned about the Citizen's United decision, it seemed like a reasonable decision to me. Why should there be limits on how much money a corporation can donate to a politician? Anybody should be able to support the candidate of their choice, and they should be free to donate as much money as they please. But as time went on, I realized the repercussions of having this type of corporate influence in politics. A 27 dollar donation from Joe Schmoe isn't going to influence a politician's policy decisions, but a million dollar check from Exxon Mobil absolutely will. And then there's the mainstream media, but that is another can of worms.</div>
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Hopefully you found this post insightful, even if I didn't articulate it very well. But it sure felt good to write! Showers and sunbreaks with highs in the low 60s for the remainder of this week before we once again surge into the upper 70s for next week.</div>
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Thanks for reading!</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-26354084772043628032016-04-23T17:10:00.000-07:002016-04-23T17:10:00.852-07:00A Transition To More Seasonable WeatherWe've been so hot recently, many of us (including myself) have forgotten that it is only April. Although mountain snow at Snoqualmie Pass becomes increasingly hard to come by after mid-April, it is still relatively common, and we can even have snow there into May. Of course, when you get to 89 degrees in Seattle like we did on Monday, it's hard to imagine how this month could feature snow at the top of Mt. Rainier, let alone the major passes. We usually see around 27 inches of snow in the month of April at Snoqualmie, but this month, we've only seen one inch. Sometimes we see much more; the winter of 2010-2011 saw 84 inches of snow in the month of April there, more than both January and February. You can find snowfall totals back to 1950 for Snoqualmie Pass <a href="http://www.wsdot.com/winter/files/HistoricalSnowfallData2015-16Season.pdf?v=40" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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My skiing friend and teaching buddy Tessa Harvey headed up to Alpental today and took this video. Amazingly, there is still quite a bit of snow up there, though it is quite patchy. Remember, it takes energy for snow to melt, meaning it cools the air around it as it melts. This acts to slow melting and let us hold on to our precious snowpack for a little bit longer. Still, our snowpack, which was normal just a couple weeks ago, has taken a beating so far this April.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0foslbQxnJ5_41SJQnhjQkaTpCgG9fDJIqTbt3H1S0RBMdYYAXsaoOZzr4zR3R9qht4TibPPtRtZ3ZKFHNNBl9aEKEfUs0VEgcJNqGzvSlI76xw39MW_D4VtAtl2Io2M7ooRhm6ZiB2uj/s1600/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0foslbQxnJ5_41SJQnhjQkaTpCgG9fDJIqTbt3H1S0RBMdYYAXsaoOZzr4zR3R9qht4TibPPtRtZ3ZKFHNNBl9aEKEfUs0VEgcJNqGzvSlI76xw39MW_D4VtAtl2Io2M7ooRhm6ZiB2uj/s640/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001.jpg" width="494" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf" target="_blank">National Water and Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Looking ahead, we should cool down for the foreseeable future as we return to a more traditional onshore flow. We should still be slightly warmer than normal, but the days in the 80s look like they are past us... for now.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitb8p40sgRxzf5jED2ydQEh9AKFlLQiYt_4vjftkw0pBYYlqPBzT9e1mC7-iSBLVmvLyeJGxsQfdLV7-zAQqnhCdEFRQwOxtcpBiUEY1Bzh0fsxro7JrQ3mZQtzdqBCtsbqltS5ePe-Ai0/s1600/610prcp.new.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitb8p40sgRxzf5jED2ydQEh9AKFlLQiYt_4vjftkw0pBYYlqPBzT9e1mC7-iSBLVmvLyeJGxsQfdLV7-zAQqnhCdEFRQwOxtcpBiUEY1Bzh0fsxro7JrQ3mZQtzdqBCtsbqltS5ePe-Ai0/s640/610prcp.new.gif" width="606" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggQo62b4zd0itcKHhZmeBYPGGc5moqzTAB-Q0x4ZOT5ExvAmwKbeDbzF9XkGaHzGr2c70XaNGJ3R-Sd7pgHvb191JVzJjoTgMm9TqAVCNZQScCoorBIOrhp68ISp_Dn8p1bWb_AmMKT-Fe/s1600/610temp.new.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggQo62b4zd0itcKHhZmeBYPGGc5moqzTAB-Q0x4ZOT5ExvAmwKbeDbzF9XkGaHzGr2c70XaNGJ3R-Sd7pgHvb191JVzJjoTgMm9TqAVCNZQScCoorBIOrhp68ISp_Dn8p1bWb_AmMKT-Fe/s640/610temp.new.gif" width="604" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Climate Prediction Center</a></td></tr>
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It sure was nice while we had it though! And we won't be cold by any means... we'll be up near 70 with mostly sunny skies by the end of next week. It sure took us a while to get to drier and warmer weather, but we're here now, and we aren't looking back.<br />
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Thanks for reading,<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-63766081501980865852016-04-17T17:42:00.000-07:002016-04-17T17:54:49.257-07:00Viva La Niña!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzo3tZwcD7Q3dMR0ldPKg03wOdQzAtvsdG4QKvOHjRfEwm5iOKKL9aRgdbRsTsGQk_P11m2xipXE0CGzR2NpVOg3X_mL_UY2vyLzSfxsuxVh74GMwLwpHzU-6HrwDbRQjheNIfxLzNi_yE/s1600/ScreenHunter_38+Apr.+15+17.19.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="574" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzo3tZwcD7Q3dMR0ldPKg03wOdQzAtvsdG4QKvOHjRfEwm5iOKKL9aRgdbRsTsGQk_P11m2xipXE0CGzR2NpVOg3X_mL_UY2vyLzSfxsuxVh74GMwLwpHzU-6HrwDbRQjheNIfxLzNi_yE/s640/ScreenHunter_38+Apr.+15+17.19.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf" target="_blank">NOAA</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Earlier this week, my good friends at NOAA (well, hopefully we'll be best buds someday) issued a La Niña watch for the Tropical Pacific. Some of the models were showing a transition to a La Niña for next winter in the months before, but there was enough spread and uncertainty in the models that the climatologists at NOAA did not put out an official watch. However, as spring rolled on, more and more models hopped on board with the idea of a La Niña for the 2016-2017 winter. Of course, there is still a lot of spread in the models, and some well regarded ones (such as NOAA's own CFSv2 model) actually show yet another El Niño developing next autumn and hanging around for the winter.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmp1OttyzUyedpnoqAz67lw59A9Z1Eyzc5vAamm5PhfwED4TaBx4Tj3pA2rg0YL3tqd5ecsb528OmAE-dkK5LkOl2GmmqDsfctvStrwLt5bDNMQrPCLlusxLz724tp9WTkDfdio3739RGL/s1600/ScreenHunter_37+Apr.+15+17.18.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmp1OttyzUyedpnoqAz67lw59A9Z1Eyzc5vAamm5PhfwED4TaBx4Tj3pA2rg0YL3tqd5ecsb528OmAE-dkK5LkOl2GmmqDsfctvStrwLt5bDNMQrPCLlusxLz724tp9WTkDfdio3739RGL/s640/ScreenHunter_37+Apr.+15+17.18.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf" target="_blank">NOAA</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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At this point though, we look to be headed towards a La Nina not only because the model consensus but because of what has happened during previous strong El Niños. After the record-breaking El Nino of 1997-1998, we saw a massive La Niña the following winter, and it was because of this La Niña that Mt. Baker ski resort got 95 feet snow in a single year, making it the snowiest year ever for anywhere in the world where snow measurements are taken (there are snowier places, including some on Mt. Baker, but observations are not taken there). The models and history are on our side, and that's why the CPC decided to go ahead and issue a La Nina watch.<br />
<br />
El Nino refers to a periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific due to weaker trade winds and less upwelling, while La Nina refers to the opposite. Just like El Nino, La Nina affects weather patterns all over the world, and in many areas, the effects are nearly opposite to what we would expect during an El Nino. While El Ninos shift tropical convection over Indonesia eastward (often resulting in massive fires over southeast Asia), La Ninas shift the convection westward, meaning that Indonesia and many areas in Southeast Asia will likely see enhanced precipitation this year. Hurricanes are often more plentiful in the Atlantic but less plentiful in the Eastern/Central Pacific during El Ninos, so a stormier-than-average Atlantic hurricane season looks on tap for the summer and autumn of 2016.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjCVku7cvhyRtrV3dSdLD20zBcmPaA36Cq4xDRYzMNAcFlRmYBcrE6sXo9OiO93HF9ubvXfkBC_a_rvff0JZo3lSjMw1w7z1-UwuAS79FZgjmHumDuC4ZjrzkozgG9fYgAQAx8OVH_08MW/s1600/ElNino-Jet-Wintertime-Pattern.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="489" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjCVku7cvhyRtrV3dSdLD20zBcmPaA36Cq4xDRYzMNAcFlRmYBcrE6sXo9OiO93HF9ubvXfkBC_a_rvff0JZo3lSjMw1w7z1-UwuAS79FZgjmHumDuC4ZjrzkozgG9fYgAQAx8OVH_08MW/s640/ElNino-Jet-Wintertime-Pattern.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitjAlYGyGKGgofiOTwy9XtBJI-1gBxzeMRyz0GMsNcvnpn0wzTuddflZpPnfjwwfUib5IyPKFYin-5CX88e0psVpDnG2oVjU_vw1_aQ8RPoTx8X1eMhVDMYt0ZsJWP1rDO32BxHE0g38qr/s1600/LaNina-Jet-Wintertime-Pattern.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="497" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitjAlYGyGKGgofiOTwy9XtBJI-1gBxzeMRyz0GMsNcvnpn0wzTuddflZpPnfjwwfUib5IyPKFYin-5CX88e0psVpDnG2oVjU_vw1_aQ8RPoTx8X1eMhVDMYt0ZsJWP1rDO32BxHE0g38qr/s640/LaNina-Jet-Wintertime-Pattern.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq" target="_blank">NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory</a></td></tr>
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In our neck of the woods, La Ninas tend to create a regime nearly opposite to the one that typically shows up during an El Nino year. Instead of having a big low pressure system in the eastern Pacific that allows the jet stream to sag south into California, we have a substantial ridge which nudges the jet stream northward, allowing it to sag into our area from the NW. Indeed, our La Nina years are stormier, cooler, and wetter than average, with mountain snowfall well-above normal. They generally don't have the biggest storms - those tend to occur on neutral years - but they have the most. And that isn't to say we can't have strong storms - one of the strongest storms in Pacific Northwest history, the "Great Coastal Gale" of 2007, pummeled the coast with hurricane force winds and caused massive flooding across much of Western Washington, including submerging a 10-mile stretch of I-5 under 10 feet of water. 2007-2008 was a strong La Niña year and the Cascades got plenty of snow - Alpental was open until Memorial Day (and I was lucky enough to ski the backcountry then!).<br />
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Let's take a look at what's happening in the tropical Pacific right now.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8LjArOpm5fSBGe7oX271MfzDx-1BFx5JSQcuMC-2i4jcPHYSwbEq6qa4dVwCtbDUWffCgFEky0op2_giVXTy2F2uVw2QLRn2kL5JShmT942X3mB5UmSCNnRASAWrzON4f5hGNVDfbtI6r/s1600/sstaanim.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8LjArOpm5fSBGe7oX271MfzDx-1BFx5JSQcuMC-2i4jcPHYSwbEq6qa4dVwCtbDUWffCgFEky0op2_giVXTy2F2uVw2QLRn2kL5JShmT942X3mB5UmSCNnRASAWrzON4f5hGNVDfbtI6r/s640/sstaanim.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml" target="_blank">NOAA </a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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As the animated .gif above shows, sea-surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific had dropped precipitously over the past month, and they are continuing to drop at a pretty impressive rate. Also, note that there is still a significant amount of warmer-than-average water in the Northeast Pacific. Strong El Niños tend to grow and fizzle out quickly, and this one is no exception. Take a look at the measured SST anomalies in each of the "Niño Regions" across the Pacific. The higher the number, the further west the region.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Radn2-6Nh1wmB5iYr8uMu72g7YXiTFX743FeTTkeQa9M980hbYYtSichAtuM1lh4l-njA6YHozmlrPvBje3vOfFYezL0P-8CKxP2YRW-6JLHfM1Tnt9wENeVa3Wm3RT-nUWFpzavNoxE/s1600/ScreenHunter_41+Apr.+15+17.21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Radn2-6Nh1wmB5iYr8uMu72g7YXiTFX743FeTTkeQa9M980hbYYtSichAtuM1lh4l-njA6YHozmlrPvBje3vOfFYezL0P-8CKxP2YRW-6JLHfM1Tnt9wENeVa3Wm3RT-nUWFpzavNoxE/s640/ScreenHunter_41+Apr.+15+17.21.jpg" width="538" /></a></div>
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Temperatures are clearly decreasing everywhere. Niño 1+2 had a little rebound in March, but they'll cool off soon enough. One interesting fact - the El Niño of 1997-1998 that everybody likes to compare to this one had a far bigger influence in the far Eastern Pacific (Niño Region 1+2), while this one was mainly situated over the Central Pacific. The distribution of water plays a significant role in how weather is affected by El Niño, and an El Niño centered over the Central Pacific has different effects than one over the Eastern Pacific. As this year showed, our seasonal forecasts weren't very good at all - so studies into how the distribution of warm water throughout the Pacific affects the effects of an El Niño throughout the world should be further studied.<br />
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One of the most telling signs that our El Nino is ending is that even though the temperatures at the sea surface are above normal, those just beneath the surface are actually <i>below </i>normal. In fact, the total heat contained in the upper ocean (upper 300 meters of water) is actually <i>below average</i> now. Ol' El is clearly on his way out.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwPZlzF-bXavpRrvkp0wYXX_Ty4-boPjaJyF2VyiieSQtMq86ClcCfoe2BH5hen_PjHa0mgWwXaaY1_VwOObkeQaqgHc-CC-npXfhThQ-UzaazdZLQnEEUEEUkQ_v5KfEtf3xC8yZ0Ece/s1600/ScreenHunter_39+Apr.+15+17.20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwPZlzF-bXavpRrvkp0wYXX_Ty4-boPjaJyF2VyiieSQtMq86ClcCfoe2BH5hen_PjHa0mgWwXaaY1_VwOObkeQaqgHc-CC-npXfhThQ-UzaazdZLQnEEUEEUkQ_v5KfEtf3xC8yZ0Ece/s640/ScreenHunter_39+Apr.+15+17.20.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf" target="_blank">NOAA</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNrLYk3Ewf_dpmIX73ey9pz00v3HZFmGRV5iG8hrv7vas3zG00-2EFgVvsB4R4QuagavqBMr0L63OkIwaB-77h-r-egqLaV8QOF3t4V-9RO8-qv3YRgLxRzJTeYZTd68yuGAgX5hC5Siw/s1600/ScreenHunter_40+Apr.+15+17.21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNrLYk3Ewf_dpmIX73ey9pz00v3HZFmGRV5iG8hrv7vas3zG00-2EFgVvsB4R4QuagavqBMr0L63OkIwaB-77h-r-egqLaV8QOF3t4V-9RO8-qv3YRgLxRzJTeYZTd68yuGAgX5hC5Siw/s640/ScreenHunter_40+Apr.+15+17.21.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf" target="_blank">NOAA</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Adios, El Niño. You and your record-breaking, horribly predicted rains will be missed. See you in a couple years.<br />
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In the meantime, Viva La Niña!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWRNt5u13-LPp-6gTQp7fWAIwVDhyNLGYFosKad5J03281bmMSAxGtXOmUB7F60sysWBdUFKauHrJqSS396n6gxLcuzB6a6vp2R2LTvY5TO87NGnz5CDcDfM-DxOXdGzTokJeFr8rdxsVz/s1600/5815607290_44f20374a8_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWRNt5u13-LPp-6gTQp7fWAIwVDhyNLGYFosKad5J03281bmMSAxGtXOmUB7F60sysWBdUFKauHrJqSS396n6gxLcuzB6a6vp2R2LTvY5TO87NGnz5CDcDfM-DxOXdGzTokJeFr8rdxsVz/s640/5815607290_44f20374a8_o.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Clearing snow at Chinook Pass in June 2011. The 2010-2011 winter was a moderate La Niña winter. <br />
Credit:<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wsdot/5815607290" target="_blank">WSDOT</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-64347793513596966942016-04-07T09:51:00.000-07:002016-04-07T09:51:29.000-07:00Record Heat Today?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidrn7QpotoodGzz26XQjNTQLCGxLyhiy0mGEnUPD5QJ9U_R5MsD03z4EfEEnsvzIMdRzNIqHysIXkXXHQwRnSutnDwlONAcl_uK9xbAuFV53H98kmw1uZjlOllISR90p6GPiJXgpY8rNS-/s1600/13735776001961_700.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidrn7QpotoodGzz26XQjNTQLCGxLyhiy0mGEnUPD5QJ9U_R5MsD03z4EfEEnsvzIMdRzNIqHysIXkXXHQwRnSutnDwlONAcl_uK9xbAuFV53H98kmw1uZjlOllISR90p6GPiJXgpY8rNS-/s640/13735776001961_700.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Frying an egg and two strips of bacon on the side of the road in Death Valley, California.<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.catholic.org/news/national/story.php?id=51685" target="_blank">www.catholic.org</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
What a change a month makes! Back on the 10th and 13th of March, we had two powerful windstorms roll through the area, with the one on the 10th causing lots of damage to the Northern Interior and creating a lot of coastal flooding and the one on the 13th making my last day of teaching ski lessons to kindergartners up at Alpental an adventure for the ages. Now, here we are, less than a month later, and we're expected to hit the 80s throughout the area today. Springtime isn't known for dramatic shifts in weather, but we can get these big ridges of high pressure that bring us exceptionally warm days, and after all the rain we've had, the change has never felt so dramatic.<br />
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One of my favorite tools for predicting the temperature on these warm days is the ProbCast tool developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory at University of Washington. As we obtain more and more computer power, ensemble forecasting (where we run a whole bunch of models with slightly perturbed initial conditions) is going to take over our more traditional, "deterministic" forecasting, where we run one model and base our forecasts off of that. The ProbCast tool gives the estimated high temperature based on multiple models, and also lists the 10% probability of the observed temperature exceeding or not reaching a certain temperature. My most memorable ProbCast experience was during our record heat wave of 2009, when Seattle hit 103 degrees, which was exactly what the Probcast was predicting.<br />
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Many news outlets are predicting the high temperature to be around 80 degrees or so. Let's see what the ProbCast says!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9XJmU9d6UlLsBy282s47UtWHQFvJapxErsCkmrjd67nC_jgqM24DwrBCcng918wy9DqvIkm380TwiAc0MudScYtGPor0pb45JgO94bHW2vXBaJ3Ys1AdrY6GlzHnUEukrbtieVBBoSFEg/s1600/ScreenHunter_32+Apr.+07+09.12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9XJmU9d6UlLsBy282s47UtWHQFvJapxErsCkmrjd67nC_jgqM24DwrBCcng918wy9DqvIkm380TwiAc0MudScYtGPor0pb45JgO94bHW2vXBaJ3Ys1AdrY6GlzHnUEukrbtieVBBoSFEg/s640/ScreenHunter_32+Apr.+07+09.12.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://probcast.washington.edu/?param=T2MAX&plotSize=medium&units=degF&init=00&tau=48&dimension=grid&plotType=deterministic&zipCode=98122&MapType=" target="_blank">University of Washington Applied Physics/Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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85! Yikes! And there is a 10% chance that the temperature could exceed 89, meaning there is an outside chance the temperature could exceed 90! I personally think this is a little bullish and I don't think we'll hit 85, but low 80s is a good bet.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigu8xsQw6aBHHTelRTaZiXW-ZJnhyLIznS_7OWLmOgZ0V2gIl0Sp9d51lcu1YZgB2c38XOcbb0fpi3z9PhLWrdZBGPa41TpiWJSojdEEiKFNd4lAY25EfUgkVtGtX9Ysl5eRCoINGJ0c6p/s1600/KillerAppServlet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigu8xsQw6aBHHTelRTaZiXW-ZJnhyLIznS_7OWLmOgZ0V2gIl0Sp9d51lcu1YZgB2c38XOcbb0fpi3z9PhLWrdZBGPa41TpiWJSojdEEiKFNd4lAY25EfUgkVtGtX9Ysl5eRCoINGJ0c6p/s640/KillerAppServlet.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://probcast.washington.edu/?param=T2MAX&plotSize=medium&units=degF&init=00&tau=48&dimension=grid&plotType=deterministic&zipCode=98122&MapType=" target="_blank">University of Washington Applied Physics/Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Here's the ProbCast map throughout all of the Pacific Northwest for today. As you can see, many places west of the Cascades are forecast to be in the 80s - not just in Washington but in Oregon as well. If you want to escape the heat, go to Wyoming.<br />
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A big ridge of high pressure over our area is enough to make us warm and sunny, but the key to our record warmth is the offshore winds that are forecast to come down the Cascades into our area. As air sinks, it warms, and even though the air in the upper atmosphere is generally cooler than the air in the lower atmosphere, it warms at such a rate that by the time it reaches the lower atmosphere, it is often warmer than the air that was previously in place. The key to having offshore flow is to have higher pressure in Eastern Washington and lower pressure in Western Washington, and as the map below shows, we will have that today. It isn't the biggest pressure difference, so winds won't be too strong, but it is enough to bring us that warm, offshore flow while preventing the cooler, maritime, onshore flow from cooling off our neck of the woods.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPk2ncC_lSa0q_NycckqiGpLFi3SrGG6Y-Ws-OHWbQFvzUHqc6k8JkHS7Cf2r-3AKWtcav12aXDVf4iPRtVkopOt2GNT132JFLBm-saMuKbYNKR9q1R_PUy2e1ECj7g7yb048XOlR7_Jvh/s1600/slp.12.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPk2ncC_lSa0q_NycckqiGpLFi3SrGG6Y-Ws-OHWbQFvzUHqc6k8JkHS7Cf2r-3AKWtcav12aXDVf4iPRtVkopOt2GNT132JFLBm-saMuKbYNKR9q1R_PUy2e1ECj7g7yb048XOlR7_Jvh/s640/slp.12.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Thu 07 Apr 2016 - 12 Fcst<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd3_ti_slp+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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On Friday, we'll start to cool down in Western Washington, but we'll still be pretty darn nice. Eastern Washington will see it's warmest weather of the year. By Saturday, stronger onshore flow returns, cooling us off dramatically back into the 60s.<br />
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Enjoy the sun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-43132831207497735252016-04-05T11:08:00.000-07:002016-04-05T11:08:27.582-07:00Another Beautiful Week On Tap<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7r9PjmNubrTrNzkZ-IF_bAMtPRf-tbDp6ggDarbhBIcuPCMV9HvrKldOTzcLmT-Ol2Jf6gutQHhdKTadl4adEhLcEwBA98nak5vP0hBo1AAASlkMnm8AlJPXsNjV7evTE2uo84awwRJFV/s1600/logo-sunshine.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="610" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7r9PjmNubrTrNzkZ-IF_bAMtPRf-tbDp6ggDarbhBIcuPCMV9HvrKldOTzcLmT-Ol2Jf6gutQHhdKTadl4adEhLcEwBA98nak5vP0hBo1AAASlkMnm8AlJPXsNjV7evTE2uo84awwRJFV/s640/logo-sunshine.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Wow, what a change in weather we have had! From the wettest winter on record to two consecutive weeks with temperatures above 70 degrees! Our transition from autumn to winter is swift, but our transition from winter to spring usually takes a little bit more time. It certainly hasn't taken much time so far!<br />
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Last week, many places around Western Washington, including Sea-Tac, got into the 70s on Thursday and Friday. Although some morning clouds prevented us from reaching those same temperatures in the lowlands on Saturdays - temperatures were extremely warm in the mountains. I was skiing up at Alpental and was absolutely boiling. It was stunningly beautiful though, and I had a lot of fun.<br />
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The reason last week was so nice was because we had a large, persistent "Omega Block" right over our area, giving us clear skies, warm temperatures, and for some people (including myself), terrible allergies. We will also be warm and sunny later this week, but the warmth won't last for an extended period of time. However, Thursday in particular will be much warmer than any day last week.<br />
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Let's take a look at the WRF-GFS 1000-500 hPa thickness chart. I love this chart because it does a great job of quickly showing which areas are expected to be warm and which areas are expected to be cool. This is because "thickness" between two pressure levels is a function of density, and the less dense the air, the higher the thickness.<br />
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Here's what the thicknesses are like over the West Coast around 11 am this morning. As you can see, we have a ridge to our south with relatively high thicknesses over the area, but in order to get into the 70s, you'd want that ridge to become stronger and you'd want thicknesses to be in the 560s or higher.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-nIqxL0MpoOaYrSGwUn08-JagQuCCv7lBUDK7dX6wTZLnFVDWqSVao-BiwHURK8WbXBWMyWEbTXn_m-I4Vyy5E7b-onR2VIZitTpbQhTKpbF3aAJkgZxjegJoSptLvvPDrJ57Idyjjf8c/s1600/thick.06.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-nIqxL0MpoOaYrSGwUn08-JagQuCCv7lBUDK7dX6wTZLnFVDWqSVao-BiwHURK8WbXBWMyWEbTXn_m-I4Vyy5E7b-onR2VIZitTpbQhTKpbF3aAJkgZxjegJoSptLvvPDrJ57Idyjjf8c/s640/thick.06.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 11:00 am PDT, Tue 05 Apr 2016 - 6hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Wednesday morning, we look a little better. Right now, I think that Sea-Tac will stay below 70 on Wednesday, but I would not be surprised if they got all the way into the low 70s.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdvVsARtP4mYd_KK3Ksnmx9EZ5dNaNygw2MEtpFneNexZRAUtbIHe0EzF5QB7Ug8FNx9OCwX7Vded4lNlwhsV7mgOewkWR5Yh0GuodqWpa8pCqtKgpom4NfxIBV1KETgY1fz-M3CqANwhN/s1600/thick.27.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdvVsARtP4mYd_KK3Ksnmx9EZ5dNaNygw2MEtpFneNexZRAUtbIHe0EzF5QB7Ug8FNx9OCwX7Vded4lNlwhsV7mgOewkWR5Yh0GuodqWpa8pCqtKgpom4NfxIBV1KETgY1fz-M3CqANwhN/s640/thick.27.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 08:00 am PDT, Wed 06 Apr 2016 - 27hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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But wow, look at Thursday afternoon! Thursday is expected to be our warmest day of the week, with temperatures in the upper 70s for many locations. Sea-Tac's record high for that date was 78, set back in 1996. I think we are going to break it!!!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI3z1mzhOnzj3pzzXczVGWTmRQTypx4LPG1SnZBgADxJ8eNq1mYewLAaU3mL7gF2ef6BmVJtn4nef_BNDcWTuYl42noWWGxyOGKElidfNRskZpDbejmheAy_5173-a0vhiRK0mYlf7YZzR/s1600/thick.72.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI3z1mzhOnzj3pzzXczVGWTmRQTypx4LPG1SnZBgADxJ8eNq1mYewLAaU3mL7gF2ef6BmVJtn4nef_BNDcWTuYl42noWWGxyOGKElidfNRskZpDbejmheAy_5173-a0vhiRK0mYlf7YZzR/s640/thick.72.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Thu 07 Apr 2016 - 72 Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_ti_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Another thing to look at is what the actual temperatures are like in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has a really cool tool where you can see the average and record values for a given parameter throughout the entire year. These parameters were measured using radiosondes - those big weather balloons with instruments that travel up to 100,000 feet through the atmosphere, taking measurements along the way.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSuixjEL6V-cAEQ07wyGmKjqPXXHIr5IsrkUQw5RN97FvGPWS9_1wYO3F6elqXSBfZeype6agSVhD01R73AL96lg8rEFGUehJY5mqLQSafLDEiiXneAen4yZqPniDEodwA1byb4jgqwiCN/s1600/ScreenHunter_31+Apr.+05+09.42.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSuixjEL6V-cAEQ07wyGmKjqPXXHIr5IsrkUQw5RN97FvGPWS9_1wYO3F6elqXSBfZeype6agSVhD01R73AL96lg8rEFGUehJY5mqLQSafLDEiiXneAen4yZqPniDEodwA1byb4jgqwiCN/s640/ScreenHunter_31+Apr.+05+09.42.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">850 hPa temperature climatology at Quillayute (UIL)<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/" target="_blank">Storm Prediction Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The 850 mb temperatures at 5 pm Thursday are forecast to be 16-17 degrees Celsius, which would set a new record not only for April 4th but for all of February and March as well, and possibly even January and April. Needless to say, it will be extremely warm in the upper atmosphere, and that warmth will make its way down to the surface.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnKNL5-QqFKjnCKyUrYWT2qZMUSjsGvzCrofuWrzfBqpCsJVw-pqsNxp-HhmRDREKhGJN-QQowzqaqiu1u3YLkN-m372Lh25yFLP50CqRDYGodKjZhfH6k_TB0_Enavn_9wcFZo3vlUnPO/s1600/850t.60.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnKNL5-QqFKjnCKyUrYWT2qZMUSjsGvzCrofuWrzfBqpCsJVw-pqsNxp-HhmRDREKhGJN-QQowzqaqiu1u3YLkN-m372Lh25yFLP50CqRDYGodKjZhfH6k_TB0_Enavn_9wcFZo3vlUnPO/s640/850t.60.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Thu 07 Apr 2016 - 60 Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_ti_850t+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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A key factor for making temperatures really toasty here in the lowlands is the existence of offshore winds. We should have offshore flow on Thursday, with the foothills getting the strongest offshore flow and thus warming up the most. This will hold true for the coast as well - places like Forks (and, to a lesser extent, Quillayute) get a warming, offshore flow from the Olympics. I suspect that most places on the coast will set new record highs on Thursday.<br />
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On Friday, the ridge moves east of the area, but we should still have enough residual warmth to squeak out another day in the 70s. We cool off for the weekend, and beyond that, we look seasonable, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s with periods of light rain at times. Definitely a far cry from the intense windstorm we saw less than a month ago!<br />
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CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-81361740097477863832016-04-04T12:52:00.004-07:002016-04-04T12:52:45.653-07:00The Demise of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet<div style="text-align: justify;">
On Wednesday, the New York times came out with an alarming article. It said that a new, high-resolution model was showing that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), a massive ice sheet west of the "Transantarctic Mountains" that divides the continent into eastern and western sections, could melt far faster than previously thought, with sea levels rising as much as 6 feet by the end of the century. This is twice as high as what other models, such as those used in the reports given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were showing for a similar emissions scenario.</div>
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I am always skeptical of these types of articles. New York Times likely wouldn't publish a story like this if sea-level rise with this new model was a meter or less. That's simply not an exciting story to write. And the problem with publishing these types of articles is that it gives the impression to the public that a significant portion of the scientific community believes that the sea level could rise higher than Russell Wilson by the end of the century when, in reality, this is just one study in a field where a lot of uncertainty currently exists.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/ecological/antarctica.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/ecological/antarctica.jpg" height="612" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: NASA</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
I minored in oceanography at the University of Washington and was pondering double majoring in it and atmospheric sciences, but I ultimately decided to simply go for the atmospheric sciences major because doing both of these wonderful majors would require me to stay at the UW for two additional years. Still, I took plenty of oceanography classes, and in multiple classes, my professors stressed the importance of the WAIS in deciding how much our sea-level could rise by the end of the century. </div>
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Like many glaciers and ice caps around the world, the WAIS has been shrinking since the end of the "Little Ice Age," and global warming has accelerated this process. However, there is a lot of uncertainty as to how the WAIS will react to warming in the future. This is because large parts of Antarctica, including much of the WAIS, actually lie <i>below sea level</i> due to the massive weight of the ice above the continent weighing it down in a process known as <i>isostatic depression</i>. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDIk85YwnpUX3iXQ0D136oUj4ckKLioSpvjEKegrMdMPyX25vnckLs6_buLQK0ysaIgnCuUYimIbFjC3RsX46oYOJJ3N4hgryY9QccjUVnDkvvLfivsDhmTPeJkTm0Pl2dQfI3jkBUUgRL/s1600/AntarcticBedrock.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDIk85YwnpUX3iXQ0D136oUj4ckKLioSpvjEKegrMdMPyX25vnckLs6_buLQK0ysaIgnCuUYimIbFjC3RsX46oYOJJ3N4hgryY9QccjUVnDkvvLfivsDhmTPeJkTm0Pl2dQfI3jkBUUgRL/s640/AntarcticBedrock.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Subglacial topography and bathymetry of Antarctica.<br />Credit: <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AntarcticBedrock.jpg" target="_blank">Paul V. Heinrich</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
As the picture above shows, land generally slopes downward as you go inland in West Antarctica due to isostatic depression. In fact, some inland areas are actually over a mile below sea level. Because of this unique feature, the ice sheet is unstable, meaning that even a little bit of a retreat of the WAIS could start a destabilization process that would lead to a collapse of the WAIS. Our current computer models do not have the capabilities to simulate this process, and significant uncertainty in the scientific community exists as to how quickly the WAIS will continue to melt, and if there ever will be a catastrophic collapse of a large section of the ice sheet.</div>
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As such, sea-level rise estimates span a pretty darn wide range, even for given "emissions forecasts" looking into the future. As shown below, there is a degree of overlap between the sea level rise with RCP 8.5 (the high-emissions scenario) and RCP 2.6 (the low-emissions scenario), suggesting that there is considerable uncertainty in how much the sea level will rise over the next century. And much of this uncertainty has to do with our poor handle on how the WAIS will behave in the future.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyfmO0RWvxmuMcHIr0F12ULMRWewcrA0_VIgcyb-QyQCr5Uta_VHfJB0EncRUMauYsZY-ZGAQfHIx7vwU7ppmllNVyJCxrpBL9_fe7BJMV6phJ5NNS5LBAGt_R8ij87Ly0YPgyJrA9sN3k/s1600/WGI_AR5_FigSPM-9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyfmO0RWvxmuMcHIr0F12ULMRWewcrA0_VIgcyb-QyQCr5Uta_VHfJB0EncRUMauYsZY-ZGAQfHIx7vwU7ppmllNVyJCxrpBL9_fe7BJMV6phJ5NNS5LBAGt_R8ij87Ly0YPgyJrA9sN3k/s640/WGI_AR5_FigSPM-9.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_FigSPM-9.jpg" target="_blank">IPCC 5th Assessment Report</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The New York Times article was based on this study on the "<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html" target="_blank">Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise</a> recently published in <i>Nature</i>. In the study, scientists showcased the results of a new, high resolution model that attempted to correctly model the response of the WAIS to subtle shifts in temperature. With this model, scientists were able to correctly reproduce the sea levels around 125,000 years ago, which are estimated to have been between 20 and 30 feet higher than today. Once they modeled this correctly, they used this model to forecast how the sea level would change in the future. According to the study, Antarctica alone has the potential to contribute one meter of sea-level rise by 2100 and over 15 meters (50 feet!) by 2500 if we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at the current rate.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggLf-hs07BHtqyjEujpntqh9FsAQjjRhkLquSZXlmn50DHH_jJp3KAbJFQQ_s3doYfb6GDuLVNME_yeeStcquDGUZQy4WoTe-Q7p4UEmM97H5_UiSx2mk6cTJds7kXJyz_IRFCmpGFC0JP/s1600/ScreenHunter_26+Apr.+04+11.03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="502" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggLf-hs07BHtqyjEujpntqh9FsAQjjRhkLquSZXlmn50DHH_jJp3KAbJFQQ_s3doYfb6GDuLVNME_yeeStcquDGUZQy4WoTe-Q7p4UEmM97H5_UiSx2mk6cTJds7kXJyz_IRFCmpGFC0JP/s640/ScreenHunter_26+Apr.+04+11.03.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/fig_tab/nature17145_F5.html" target="_blank">Deconto and Pollard, 2016</a></td></tr>
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Even more startling is the predicted rate of sea-level-rise. Since 1950, the sea level has been rising at about an inch per decade. Under the high-emissions (RCP 8.5) scenario, this new Antarctic model predicts that sea levels could rise as much as a <i>foot</i> per decade by the middle of the 22nd century. This would have tremendous impacts around the world, and while many large cities such as Miami, New Orleans, and New York City would be able to adapt to the increasing sea levels, it would be cost-prohibitive to build a seawall around the entire United States to protect all coastal areas from flooding. Donald Trump likes walls, but I believe our biggest threat in the future is from the ocean, not from our neighbors to the south. Developing countries would have an even harder time adapting.</div>
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Even though this all sounds very scary, it is important to remember that this is just one study. It is a very important study because it offers new insight into the fate of the WAIS, but in the coming years, more accurate, higher resolution models will be created, and we'll see if they come to similar conclusions. One thing is for sure - we need to decrease our CO2 emissions immediately, because we are just digging ourselves into a deeper and deeper hole. Honestly, when you consider the impact on future generations, I think it is quite selfish of us to be as lackadaisical as we have been. Global warming can't be avoided, but it can be mitigated. </div>
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My challenge to you is to think about one thing you could do every day that would reduce your carbon footprint. Maybe it's taking the bus instead of driving to that doctor's appointment, or maybe it's wearing a sweater in the winter and turning down the thermostat a bit. Maybe it's simply going for a walk instead of watching TV, or maybe it is educating other people about climate change, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. Although our individual impacts on Earth's climate are negligible, we are having a profound impact on the Earth as a whole, so if we could all just work together to try and decrease that impact, that would be awesome.</div>
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Thanks for reading!!!</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-63178841770017525562016-03-30T18:08:00.002-07:002016-03-30T18:19:23.173-07:00Beautiful Week Ahead!I had meant to get to this earlier, but then a funnel cloud occurred over Mill Creek and I had to write about that. Believe it or not, there are people who prefer stormy days with funnel clouds to beautiful, clear, warm sunny days, and I belong to that unique group. However, I'm a big fan of sun as well. In the words of John Ruskin, "there is no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather," so let's talk about the good weather ahead.<br />
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Well, on second thought, let's just talk about the good weather now. It is calm as can be on Lake Washington as I look outside my window, and the only clouds I see are some harmless cirrus clouds. Mt. St. Helens is always spectacular, but right now it is downright gorgeous. I'd love to hit the slopes of the Cascade volcanoes sometime.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1wQvyU4ZajJil0_ubQrXRZu2KcpMYBCZPOCsWW-hgXLOsnOvz2fzWdvBMRWxVyKRG-IQJro3KNJfFO4NFNyQvBeIMEJ2L4HvY6Ug4Qnzp5NqJvZ_4QL57OMUlmlyTcGa1jifS4gw4o-k9/s1600/volcanocamhd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1wQvyU4ZajJil0_ubQrXRZu2KcpMYBCZPOCsWW-hgXLOsnOvz2fzWdvBMRWxVyKRG-IQJro3KNJfFO4NFNyQvBeIMEJ2L4HvY6Ug4Qnzp5NqJvZ_4QL57OMUlmlyTcGa1jifS4gw4o-k9/s640/volcanocamhd.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/" target="_blank">US Forest Service</a></td></tr>
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Right now, we have a HUGE ridge of high pressure over us. Those of you who read my blog regularly know how much I love the satellite images from the MODIS instruments aboard the AQUA and TERRA polar-orbiting satellites, so I'll post one here showing how clear it is over the West Coast. Even if you have no idea what the last sentence just meant, I'm sure you'll understand the picture.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyELR5orFm0rDaB6afSk3v_iw977sn50WUTRfUxLdrO_9wdXpe1GjDQ8Fk70MBlog68QQ1lnAEDse9jynHAehD_IVtVz_UVfCtJArWNg-GHkwQukfvTZS-fP80ypxrBw2mxL49Gzsa-ov/s1600/image-download.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="592" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyELR5orFm0rDaB6afSk3v_iw977sn50WUTRfUxLdrO_9wdXpe1GjDQ8Fk70MBlog68QQ1lnAEDse9jynHAehD_IVtVz_UVfCtJArWNg-GHkwQukfvTZS-fP80ypxrBw2mxL49Gzsa-ov/s640/image-download.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">High pressure over our area as seen from NASA's TERRA Satellite. Credit: <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-03-30&v=-145.22346473666008,33.00325306040722,-97.20002723666008,56.17122181040722" target="_blank">NASA</a></td></tr>
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Yeah, it's clear. By the way, that diagonal line you see simply shows the boundary of one passage around the pole of this satellite. The satellites that we usually use for meteorology are called "geostationary" satellites and are very useful because they orbit the Earth at the same velocity that the Earth is rotating, so they always stay above a single point on the equator. This allows them to get continuous shots of nearly every place on the globe. However, in order to be geostationary, they must be about 22,326 miles above sea level. Polar orbiting satellites do not have the advantage of remaining stationary over a single point, but they are only several hundred miles above the planet and can thus get much higher-resolution images.<br />
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The weather models show this too - the current UW flagship WRF-GFS model shows a massive ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCVS2PFf8zlep6nvHclsa-jUhNyN5bZBPuiLo334oZJ61UEfc6QMP4yEEoJjV1LUezskfm2ZDgvph3oA_kr5WGIFwagepXjgd1Uy9rWqYHPs7-_0e6ITcCUF2ENtOgkTnAOSDPt-xb2qBr/s1600/thick.12.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCVS2PFf8zlep6nvHclsa-jUhNyN5bZBPuiLo334oZJ61UEfc6QMP4yEEoJjV1LUezskfm2ZDgvph3oA_kr5WGIFwagepXjgd1Uy9rWqYHPs7-_0e6ITcCUF2ENtOgkTnAOSDPt-xb2qBr/s640/thick.12.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Wed 30 Mar 2016 - 12hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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Also, notice how there are areas of low pressure on either side of the
high - this pattern is known as an "omega block" because the flow
resembles the Greek Letter omega - and it is a very hard pattern to
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3kRi7rGFnWehC1Imb4fPxlO1vxQKavC9QekqJhGNlzT6e0vd9Vmh85uMRqckG9PrBvAgR5-jlpo0a12OojyI-4PXPGBL-0wreFxO4WKSqBh4Lpq6lOP5Wisg6Gnjm1gI_-YVz3TFcJXgv/s1600/Omega_Block_Conceptual.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3kRi7rGFnWehC1Imb4fPxlO1vxQKavC9QekqJhGNlzT6e0vd9Vmh85uMRqckG9PrBvAgR5-jlpo0a12OojyI-4PXPGBL-0wreFxO4WKSqBh4Lpq6lOP5Wisg6Gnjm1gI_-YVz3TFcJXgv/s640/Omega_Block_Conceptual.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Idealized Omega Block<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/sat_features/blocking_patterns/media/graphics/Omega_Block_Conceptual.jpg" target="_blank">University Corporation for Atmospheric Research</a></td></tr>
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This omega block will live up to its reputation, and won't go anywhere for the remainder of the week. 24 hours from now, the omega block has hardly moved at all.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjNgUdKQDQ6CDFxS6hR_08rooJuZF-5WOAuRtTCtYgZDdmw83HEz-RTzIuAxCOOqAbgC4lCNnn2bx9s0m2g4Qo44Zn2uslRqg4MMmixmtNjNlHMoxZqd_zWcAJJrnNQH0cxlSALp9wnZpv/s1600/thick.36.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjNgUdKQDQ6CDFxS6hR_08rooJuZF-5WOAuRtTCtYgZDdmw83HEz-RTzIuAxCOOqAbgC4lCNnn2bx9s0m2g4Qo44Zn2uslRqg4MMmixmtNjNlHMoxZqd_zWcAJJrnNQH0cxlSALp9wnZpv/s640/thick.36.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Thu 31 Mar 2016 - 36hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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I don't think we'll be breaking any records, but highs on Thursday and Friday have a good chance of breaking the 70-degree mark for many areas in Western Washington, especially Friday. We "cool down" to the low 60s for the weekend, still well above our average high of 56, and turn rainy by next week. Still, we do not look stormy by any means. Spring arrived a little late this year, but I think it's safe to say that it is finally here.<br />
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Get outside, and don't forget to wear sunscreen!<br />
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Cheers,<br />
Charlie Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-5503425340310002382016-03-29T16:55:00.002-07:002016-03-29T16:55:39.532-07:00Funnel Cloud Over Mill Creek!<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvVucocBQsrP8Bc1UnDPuKjES1LK2rbxK3qHkW2vX-D0VEqK6rcAA6Gr1ulr95ew0W6sQ6un5SGPKCyVF0ZjHtVt5biTxEAKVG4sL5G37hEnTLGq2AcLegT1OKF7wFzDRG54-H4lqYoSdn/s1600/3.27.2016+EOSDIS+Worldview+PSCZ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="596" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvVucocBQsrP8Bc1UnDPuKjES1LK2rbxK3qHkW2vX-D0VEqK6rcAA6Gr1ulr95ew0W6sQ6un5SGPKCyVF0ZjHtVt5biTxEAKVG4sL5G37hEnTLGq2AcLegT1OKF7wFzDRG54-H4lqYoSdn/s640/3.27.2016+EOSDIS+Worldview+PSCZ.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: NASA AQUA Satellite, ~2pm on Easter Sunday, March 27, 2016</td></tr>
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Yesterday was definitely a crazy day for weather! For much of the day, a pretty strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone set up shop in the Northern and Central Puget Sound regions, waxing and waning in intensity and shifting northward and southward as the day went on. The convergence zone ventured further south than usual, actually making it south of Seattle at times. The above satellite picture not only shows a well-defined convergence zone but also shows clearing to the north and south of the zone due to sinking air on either side of it, and lots of scattered clouds (popcorn) offshore denoting little showers and indicating an unstable atmosphere. An unstable atmosphere means there is a large decrease in temperature with height, and as Mother Nature would have it, Sea-Tac had a high of 55 yesterday while Snoqualmie Pass has picked up 8 inches of snow in the last 24 hours. There's still a ton of snow up there, go and get it before it all melts away by the end of this week (but that's for another blog).<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX9oYRMQ0fR5dPXsUwXkh2qO8X4M1Yl0dumjpCX_P3jiAI86x1pa6em0hCG8o3a41KwaJkXsZkE1jqmdO55MWdOJD9zOqIcc8jo9CtrFLYx8Cafc0VlW8JntJZBrR2vPB9_zjRm098TlCk/s1600/ScreenHunter_17+Mar.+28+11.39.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX9oYRMQ0fR5dPXsUwXkh2qO8X4M1Yl0dumjpCX_P3jiAI86x1pa6em0hCG8o3a41KwaJkXsZkE1jqmdO55MWdOJD9zOqIcc8jo9CtrFLYx8Cafc0VlW8JntJZBrR2vPB9_zjRm098TlCk/s640/ScreenHunter_17+Mar.+28+11.39.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/travismiller00/" target="_blank">Travis Miller</a></td></tr>
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In addition to bringing gobs of snow to Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes, yesterday's convergence zone actually brought a funnel cloud to Mill Creek! Interestingly enough, funnel clouds are not all that uncommon with strong convergence zones. However, these are called "cold core" funnel clouds and are due to localized areas of circulation due to wind shear within the convergence zone. They are NOT like the funnel clouds and tornadoes common in the Great Plains, which are formed from supercell thunderstorms and are much larger and stronger. For comparison, take a look at the F5 tornado below from Manitoba. Yup, even Canadians get tornadoes!<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5q0MA7nsNFrUCLAhYbiMcR88tQnFzKYsUtvnZL6FFo7UJNxT_fASTvonGKGaiNDu8soz0nJeqnZJriWvh_Zs-qqUHo_71g02nha6uegNsGOy676ae3PYMe5FS6ORVS2qeLfkYJmSFg0UN/s1600/F5_tornado_Elie_Manitoba_2007.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5q0MA7nsNFrUCLAhYbiMcR88tQnFzKYsUtvnZL6FFo7UJNxT_fASTvonGKGaiNDu8soz0nJeqnZJriWvh_Zs-qqUHo_71g02nha6uegNsGOy676ae3PYMe5FS6ORVS2qeLfkYJmSFg0UN/s640/F5_tornado_Elie_Manitoba_2007.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Category F5 tornado approaching Elie, Manitoba on June 22, 2007<br />
Retrieved from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado#/media/File:F5_tornado_Elie_Manitoba_2007.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a></td></tr>
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Huge difference. Even so, even our little cold-core funnel clouds can become tornadoes, and when they do, they can cause quite a bit of destruction.<br />
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Supercells are large, severe thunderstorms with a rotating updraft, or mesocyclone. The mesocyclone forms when wind shear caused by relatively light winds at the surface and strong winds aloft creates a spinning vortex of air, and then strong updrafts tilt this updraft so that it is vertical. Both these pictures were taken from a powerpoint presentation I saved from my atmospheric sciences 452 (advanced synoptic meteorology and forecasting lab) class at the UW, and the credit goes to Nick Bond.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw8uGNdz9sMTqRaGWFlMyAJ0bQcaaKhFN99FDW-fvH4GI3B_15h8WXYOfqk_Qqanz5ZNj5tuG6pu_4v46Kh-xjLsZZwFvmznVnnH5kvYSxm1ooe2IizEO2K3GOiDmrbbBFihPWqeDLwNs7/s1600/ScreenHunter_19+Mar.+29+16.10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw8uGNdz9sMTqRaGWFlMyAJ0bQcaaKhFN99FDW-fvH4GI3B_15h8WXYOfqk_Qqanz5ZNj5tuG6pu_4v46Kh-xjLsZZwFvmznVnnH5kvYSxm1ooe2IizEO2K3GOiDmrbbBFihPWqeDLwNs7/s640/ScreenHunter_19+Mar.+29+16.10.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2fYtgb30fPhHGRgFIxVNN_fbFHawdpOIlNECZWver6AaYiGRpcFg4V-o_fV3ojg0AH3HKkut3bAG882DU6XFq80_wEOLjfAboofdo5rWLOW6-BVVPSNBlMge9p4qIhHCb1DCalOnt7HM/s1600/ScreenHunter_20+Mar.+29+16.17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="630" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2fYtgb30fPhHGRgFIxVNN_fbFHawdpOIlNECZWver6AaYiGRpcFg4V-o_fV3ojg0AH3HKkut3bAG882DU6XFq80_wEOLjfAboofdo5rWLOW6-BVVPSNBlMge9p4qIhHCb1DCalOnt7HM/s640/ScreenHunter_20+Mar.+29+16.17.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The difference in wind strength in the vertical can be quite high, especially in areas near the surface that are sheltered from the wind. I remember one time in December 2007 (the "Great Coastal Gale," to be exact), when winds around a mile up were an astounding 100 knots, while winds away from the immediate coast weren't even at advisory levels. The coast was a different story, and this was arguably the strongest storm on record for some parts of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington - even surpassing the Columbus Day storm!<br />
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While supercells get their rotation from differences in wind strength in the vertical, our tiny cold-core funnel clouds and tornadoes are formed from differences in wind strength in the horizontal. With convergence zones, you have winds coming from the south and winds coming from the north, and this can spin up small, localized vortices that manifest themselves as cold-core funnel clouds. I couldn't find a picture of this online, so I drew one myself. This is a picture of the convergence zone around the time that the funnel cloud was sighted, and the pinwheel represents a vortex formed by wind shear from the converging air streams. In this case, the pinwheel is over Mill Creek, which is where people spotted the funnel cloud.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYPJH_5lvlaNOTr99pMsh34QFlWwypSNAjUK28XnhLnmLbpfguusULufqNpHiXVBRv056h6AGBsP4ZC3cKWJYH3d4tLds1lh7_WSupdMQaPWbCfpCQgOTY-5SOfx_eu13mMXSAeT7HNAL/s1600/pscz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYPJH_5lvlaNOTr99pMsh34QFlWwypSNAjUK28XnhLnmLbpfguusULufqNpHiXVBRv056h6AGBsP4ZC3cKWJYH3d4tLds1lh7_WSupdMQaPWbCfpCQgOTY-5SOfx_eu13mMXSAeT7HNAL/s640/pscz.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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In case you want to learn more about supercell thunderstorms, I have a<a href="http://charliesweatherforecasts.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-graceful-apocalypse-part-1-basic.html" target="_blank"> <i>much</i> more detailed post here</a>. I must of had a lot of time on my hands when I wrote it!!!<br />
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Thanks for reading!!!<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-10700465853284803592016-03-26T21:31:00.002-07:002016-03-26T21:31:37.257-07:00Should Seattle Close Its Parks During Windstorms?There's nothing a Pacific Northwest meteorologist likes more than a big windstorm. Flooding rains are interesting, but they make for terrible skiing (something many meteorologists like to do!) and are not nearly as vicious and intense as a windstorm. Snowstorms are awesome because they are so rare, and there's nothing more beautiful than Seattle with a fresh coat of snow on it, but they still lack the intense cyclogenesis that weather geeks rave about. I personally prefer snowstorms to windstorms (skiing down a hill is more fun than living without power), but when it comes to weather events that meteorologists go ga-ga over, windstorms generally take the cake.<br />
<br />
However, I'm beginning to feel a little apprehensive about wishing for these big windstorms. It seems like every windstorm that hits us results in at least one tragic fatality. Recently, most of these have been due to falling trees, but I recall back during the Hanukkah Eve Storm that the majority of deaths were actually due to carbon monoxide poisoning in the days after the storm, as people left their generators running inside their homes and carbon monoxide built up throughout the house. Regardless, I am no fan of any windstorm when it results in loss of life. Damage is inevitable, but loss of life can usually be avoided.<br />
<br />
The windstorm on March 13th killed somebody in Seward Park when they
were crushed by a falling Douglas Fir, and this has sparked concerns
over whether Seattle should close its parks during these windstorms. One
of my friends actually went to Seward Park to go storm chasing, and
although he planned to get there well ahead of the storm and set up in
an area clear of trees, the storm moved faster than expected and he got
there right about the time that this fatality occurred. Many trees were
down throughout the park, and based on the damage, he estimated that
gusts were reaching 55-60 mph. He recorded a gust to 49 mph, so winds
above the surface impacting the trees were likely higher. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvdMjkwnaVhOXl4qPw4Mt8RXOWOefHlkFZe7YCAHjvl5m9bOJiAlAqjGc1NUVmP1tmRt8lw-Plkkl9JYcDaawX6drdkSdun_oUOky9HwnpJPkQjdizZCTnTlot8vyylYWFq1-aIYod-hh/s1600/ScreenHunter_05+Mar.+26+19.45.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvdMjkwnaVhOXl4qPw4Mt8RXOWOefHlkFZe7YCAHjvl5m9bOJiAlAqjGc1NUVmP1tmRt8lw-Plkkl9JYcDaawX6drdkSdun_oUOky9HwnpJPkQjdizZCTnTlot8vyylYWFq1-aIYod-hh/s640/ScreenHunter_05+Mar.+26+19.45.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/as-deadly-windstorm-raged-seattle-parks-stayed-open/" target="_blank">Seattle Times</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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On Thursday, I read an interesting article in the Seattle Times. The article stated that while many other parks and cities close their parks when severe weather strikes, Seattle does not. Seward Park remained open throughout the storm, while other parks like Olympic National Park closed well before the storm hit and others like Point Defiance Park in Tacoma closed as soon as the winds picked up. This begs the question: does it make sense to close parks in Seattle like Seward Park when the winds get too high? Or is this not necessary, and should we let people decide on their own if they want to go to parks during a storm?<br />
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My opinions are mixed. I identify as a liberal who likes small government. I am not a libertarian by any means, but in my opinion, government and public agencies should be as streamlined and efficient as possible while still fulfilling certain basic needs. I don't consider deciding whether to keep parks open or not a basic need. On the other hand, organizations like the Washington State Department of Transportation close roads when they are deemed unsafe (ex: the 520 bridge, which was closed during the height of this storm). The Coast Guard can close certain ports to prevent ships from going out if there are rough ocean conditions. The Forest Service can close certain trails, like they did last summer with the Big Four trail near Mt. Baker due to people illegally venturing into the ice caves there and being killed by collapsing ice. So, why shouldn't Seattle Parks and Recreation close certain parks during severe weather?<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDvoAfj7-jY8hcUmrg4vw7ko7vxiffldRpAp-aRDx-muKZ-dx5KoINBUU3z9AuiYMQOua_RH3Z59zmS5eV2yma8ft_WU0FwfirKq9OWDvGDO9-MnHVOYA9l6X0KOwOLCeyNuFLq3cuxThg/s1600/big4icecaves.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDvoAfj7-jY8hcUmrg4vw7ko7vxiffldRpAp-aRDx-muKZ-dx5KoINBUU3z9AuiYMQOua_RH3Z59zmS5eV2yma8ft_WU0FwfirKq9OWDvGDO9-MnHVOYA9l6X0KOwOLCeyNuFLq3cuxThg/s640/big4icecaves.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wta.org/go-hiking/hikes/big-four-ice-caves" target="_blank">Washington Trails Association</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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It would be hard to enforce these closures, especially on places like the Burke-Gilman trail, which according to UW professor Cliff Mass is one of the most hazardous places to be in a windstorm. So I don't think that closing the parks is the most efficient way to go about solving this problem.<br />
<br />
Cliff Mass actually got to this topic before I did, and he suggested that Seattle develop a "Seattle Environmental Hazard App" that would warn you of any threats of severe weather based on your exact location. I think this would be a good idea, and if it is done I'd definitely check it out.<br />
<br />
However, at this point, I think the main thing we should be doing is educating people about what to do during severe weather. People should know not to drive or walk in areas with lots of trees when there is high wind, and they should not be out in small boats. For example, last spring, a group of kayakers were caught unaware by strong westerly winds coming down the Strait of Juan de Fuca, even though models predicted the winds perfectly. And that's another thing - we need to be better at communicating what the weather forecast is to the public (I could write a dozen blogs about this).<br />
<br />
The number one weather-related killer in the Pacific Northwest is roadway ice, and it is how I almost died while traveling near Blewett Pass when I was 5 years old. But with our large, shallow-rooted trees and often-saturated soils, falling trees are a real danger to lives and property, and we must be better at limiting the frequency of these tragic deaths, because we have had far too many over the past year.<br />
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Rest in peace.Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-22265525493071864072016-03-23T16:58:00.004-07:002016-03-23T16:58:31.535-07:00Sneezing Up A StormWednesday, March 23, 2016<br />
2:28 pm<br />
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Every year, around the first week of March, springtime allergies hit me harder than a bottle of caffeine pills. For the majority of the winter, I'm totally fine, and then suddenly, my eyes are the wettest they've been since stupidly eating some absurdly hot chili pepper in Indonesia. Ten to thirty percent of the world has seasonal allergies, and I am one of those people. In fact, I <i>almost</i> sneezed as I was just typing that sentence. Now, I'll be yearning for a sneeze for the rest of the day.</div>
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I'm allergic to cats (though we still had one) and mildly allergic to dogs (though I love my dog and wouldn't give him up for the world), but I'm incredibly allergic to horses. Put me on a horse, and I'll sneeze, cry, and punch my nose like you wouldn't believe. I love riding horses too - I just need to take a ton of allergy medicine well beforehand - it takes weeks for the medicine to fully get into my system and have a noticeable effect on my horse allergies.</div>
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Luckily for me, my allergies are just an inconvenience. I do not have life-threatening allergic reactions to peanuts or bee stings. But even though those allergies are much more severe, the basic mechanism behind all allergic reactions is the same. So before we get specifically into hay fever, let's talk about how allergic reactions work.</div>
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Allergic reactions occur when the body's immune system identifies a normally harmless substance as a hazard to the body's health. When a person is exposed to an allergen for the very first time, they generally do not experience a severe allergic reaction. However, some individuals develop antibodies to these allergens, and the next time an allergen enters the body, the antibodies produce "histamines," which then act on various areas of the body and create different types of allergic reactions. Some allergies, like hay fever, are relatively harmless in the grand scheme of things, while others, like nut allergies, can cause the body to experience a rapid drop in blood pressure and go into anaphylactic shock. In these cases, a shot of epinephrine (an Epi-Pen) must be administered immediately, as the sufferer could die in as little as 15 minutes after being exposed to the allergen. Allergies are not just found in humans; even man's best friend can go into anaphylactic shock if they are exposed to a particular allergen.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOfCl1Saff87ntpM-lCcO5_ulZWvamND2y3gnZgGdbzrANFzdJzrJH_JSYd0tvg0mCwdby5A11y1PYyo-DjAB4hwH-YxGLaqtoLzLztw9wObx9OzvGFzesOO53OqlNoJGcbVtSaRUEpakv/s1600/VariousPollen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOfCl1Saff87ntpM-lCcO5_ulZWvamND2y3gnZgGdbzrANFzdJzrJH_JSYd0tvg0mCwdby5A11y1PYyo-DjAB4hwH-YxGLaqtoLzLztw9wObx9OzvGFzesOO53OqlNoJGcbVtSaRUEpakv/s640/VariousPollen.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A scanning electron microscope image of pollen grains from sunflower, morning glory, prairie hollyhock, oriental lily, evening primrose, and castor bean. Credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollen#/media/File:Misc_pollen_colorized.jpg" target="_blank">Dartmouth College</a></td></tr>
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Hay fever is caused by the body's immune response to pollen. The severity of hay fever symptoms varies among different people, but it
is extremely rare for a person to go into anaphylactic shock because
they have been exposed to pollen. That's a good thing, because pollen is
pretty much everywhere!</div>
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Pollen itself is a powdery substance composed of individual pollen grains, or microgametophytes. Though we usually don't think of plants as having a certain sex, pollen grains produce sperm cells, and therefore are the "male" part of the plant as a whole. This is why bees are so important... they allow plants to reproduce by depositing the pollen grains on the female receptacles, or megagametophytes. In a flower, the microgametophytes are found on the stamen, while the megagametophytes are found on the stigma. So ladies, next time you get ambushed by hay fever, find one of your guy friends and blame him and all his microgametophyte friends for making you sneeze!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeefK8A9RkDTtVeZxB83LaDabrf7QFMFfCTk9g2kwTtliQQZM8fX6tNwKjqHOpvgn8pno9La5L4Hu2nl-cnR5nJZk4KIB3o2Dg1tmZALab1pTNsmflHwSMWQHPlcbLm_x83BLjq6HYRgQx/s1600/parts_of_flower%25283%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeefK8A9RkDTtVeZxB83LaDabrf7QFMFfCTk9g2kwTtliQQZM8fX6tNwKjqHOpvgn8pno9La5L4Hu2nl-cnR5nJZk4KIB3o2Dg1tmZALab1pTNsmflHwSMWQHPlcbLm_x83BLjq6HYRgQx/s640/parts_of_flower%25283%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.amnh.org/learn/biodiversity_counts/ident_help/Parts_Plants/parts_of_flower.htm" target="_blank">American Museum of Natural History</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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In the springtime, trees are the most common source of pollen. Particularly notorious trees in my neck of the woods include Cedar and Maple, especially Maple. In summer, grasses are the most prevalent source of pollen, and by autumn, weeds are the main offenders. Although pollen decreases in the winter, some people are still allergic to mold and dust, and indoor air is generally dirtier than outdoor air. Allergies are generally worst on breezy days when lots of pollen has been knocked off of plants, but if it is too windy, cleaner air from the upper atmosphere will get mixed down and pollen concentrations will decrease. Pollen concentrations are usually lowest if it is raining cats and dogs, as raindrops capture pollen and other aerosols and remove them from the atmosphere.</div>
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There are a variety of medications you can use to mitigate hay fever. Many are "antihistamines," which reduce the amount of histamines your body produces so you don't have as much of an allergic reaction. Some, like Benadryl, cause drowsiness, while others, like Claritin, keep you perfectly awake. However, in recent years, prescription nasal sprays such as Flonase have become available over-the-counter, and I've had better success with these. These are steroids instead of antihistamines, and are stronger and longer lasting than most antihistamines. If springtime has got you feeling under the weather, get a nasal spray, and you'll be back to feeling better in no time.</div>
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Thanks for reading!</div>
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Charlie </div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-13208582098393976562016-03-14T22:25:00.001-07:002016-03-15T10:40:42.808-07:00Sunday Windstorm ReviewPi Day 2016<br />
4:55 pm<br />
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I apologize for not being in the blogosphere yesterday - I was up at Alpental introducing 5-year-olds to poles. I taught lessons up there this year on the weekends and had a spectacular time, and I'd highly recommend anybody who loves kids and skiing to consider teaching ski lessons up there. The kids are so fun, kind, and carefree, and they don't judge me for being a complete goofball weirdo around them. It seems like we let go of these qualities as we grow older, which is too bad because I think they make us special. I hope the kids learned from me, because I know I learned a lot from them.</div>
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Yesterday was stormy throughout Western Washington. There were blizzard conditions at times up on some of the ridgetops at Alpental, and I believe ~250,000 people lost power here in Western Washington. Many of the kids were crying because the fierce winds were very scary! I'd estimate that there were gusts 40-50 mph affecting us at times... it was intense. The NWAC site at Dodge Ridge at Summit West clocked multiple gusts to 68 mph yesterday afternoon, and they are significantly lower in elevation than where we were at Alpental.</div>
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Sunday's storm was not very well predicted. Early forecasts showed the potential for a major windstorm across the Puget Sound region, with sustained winds of 30-45 mph and gusts up to 70 mph. Storm warnings (<i>sustained </i>winds of 48-63 knots or 55-73 mph) were issued for Puget Sound, something that happens very rarely. Even late Saturday night/Sunday morning, these storm warnings were still up.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwi4lBKQEGD-Ol_r7HKI_FD9DTED8SXGigMFLviw23j94zL3OBZH-BWCpahFTb8_teV12p3nBkSqz4nlSoIsGEIvD_QQbWpIMBMgXzFJbakJwYgmm1nbcci_m060_cc8zeVlFOr-dYaaTR/s1600/ScreenHunter_930+Mar.+12+23.15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwi4lBKQEGD-Ol_r7HKI_FD9DTED8SXGigMFLviw23j94zL3OBZH-BWCpahFTb8_teV12p3nBkSqz4nlSoIsGEIvD_QQbWpIMBMgXzFJbakJwYgmm1nbcci_m060_cc8zeVlFOr-dYaaTR/s640/ScreenHunter_930+Mar.+12+23.15.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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However, Saturday night's model runs significantly cut back on the predicted strength of the windstorm, and by early Sunday morning, the National Weather Service had replaced the storm warnings in Puget Sound with lesser gale warnings. However, these models didn't have a good handle on the storm either, and neither did Sunday morning's runs, which were initialized approximately 6 hours before the storm was forecast to make landfall. UW's flagship WRF-GFS model had the low making landfall just to the north of the mouth of the Columbia River around 11 am as a rather elongated 984 mb cyclone.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRmOYBgiG-zSgbjdrGtmBMjpKAlZMgCZRIgQQIpmUFlx_TVY4L10JhSvcmJXyQtkL5L1nRAYoGmPiyFNSrntDkx-WwEoimnuhusq-BB_6GzwqcBthm96hVTgbaoDVQHPmtVI2lHrrHxcYZ/s1600/slp.06.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRmOYBgiG-zSgbjdrGtmBMjpKAlZMgCZRIgQQIpmUFlx_TVY4L10JhSvcmJXyQtkL5L1nRAYoGmPiyFNSrntDkx-WwEoimnuhusq-BB_6GzwqcBthm96hVTgbaoDVQHPmtVI2lHrrHxcYZ/s640/slp.06.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 11:00 am PDT, Sun 13 Mar 2016 - 6hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_slp+2016031312///3" target="_blank">University of Washington</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Instead, the storm made landfall significantly further north on the northern Olympic Peninsula and deepened to ~978 mb. This caused forecasters to increase the forecast strength of the winds for the coast and North Interior, but tone down their forecasts for the Puget Sound area due to the low traveling further north. Although high wind warnings were still up at this time, some forecasts from various outlets were calling for gusts below 45 mph for most of Puget Sound.</div>
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Instead, winds ended up being stronger than forecast, even for the Seattle area. Sea-Tac hit 56, and West Point in Magnolia hit 66! Here are some peak gusts from around the region that I retrieved from the National Weather Service... I bolded gusts from major stations or ones that were particularly high.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;">PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SEATTLE WA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 935 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WIND REPORTS PAST 12
HOURS...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HERE ARE SOME PRELIMINARY
WIND REPORTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> EVENING/THURSDAY WIND
EVENT. REPORTS OF LESS THAN 40 MPH WERE<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> OMITTED. REPORTS ARE
GUSTS...EXCEPT (P) ARE PEAK WINDS AND (S) ARE<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SUSTAINED WINDS.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE LAT/LON <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>MARROWSTONE POINT
LIGHT 67 MPH 0406 PM 03/13 48.10N/122.69W </b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>WHIDBEY ISLAND NAS 66 MPH 0359 PM 03/13 48.35N/122.67W </b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> COUPEVILLE 45 MPH 0410 PM 03/13 48.22N/122.69W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> PORT TOWNSEND 45 MPH 0333 PM 03/13 48.11N/122.77W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 W OAK HARBOR 44 MPH 0404 PM 03/13 48.29N/122.69W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 W FREELAND 40 MPH 0340 PM 03/13 48.01N/122.58W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...BELLEVUE AND VICINITY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 S EASTGATE 57 MPH 0246 PM 03/13 47.55N/122.13W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 WNW KIRKLAND 46 MPH 0403 PM 03/13 47.69N/122.22W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 NNW BOTHELL 44 MPH 0403 PM 03/13 47.78N/122.21W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> KENMORE 44 MPH 0310 PM 03/13 47.76N/122.25W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ISSAQUAH 40 MPH 0340 PM 03/13 47.53N/122.03W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...BREMERTON AND
VICINITY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> INDIANOLA 51 MPH 0139 PM 03/13 47.74N/122.51W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> BREMERTON AIRPORT 40 MPH 0155 PM 03/13 47.50N/122.75W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...CENTRAL COAST...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>HOQUIAM BOWERMAN AP 63 MPH 0122 PM 03/13 46.97N/123.93W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 WNW ABERDEEN 52 MPH 0146 PM 03/13 46.98N/123.84W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...EAST PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> LAKE STEVENS 45 MPH 0333 PM 03/13 48.03N/122.06W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 W SNOQUALMIE 44 MPH 1044 AM 03/13 47.52N/121.88W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ENUMCLAW 41 MPH 0252 PM 03/13 47.21N/122.00W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> EDIZ HOOK CG 45 MPH 1255 PM 03/13 48.14N/123.41W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...EVERETT AND VICINITY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>PAINE FIELD AP 60 MPH 0316 PM 03/13 47.91N/122.28W </b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ARLINGTON AP 52 MPH 0355 PM 03/13 48.16N/122.16W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HARBOUR POINTE 49 MPH 0300 PM 03/13 47.89N/122.32W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ALDERWOOD MANOR 41 MPH 0415 PM 03/13 47.82N/122.28W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...HOOD CANAL AREA...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 WSW BRINNON 56 MPH 0312 PM 03/13 47.67N/122.93W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SHELTON AIRPORT 52 MPH 0305 PM 03/13 47.24N/123.14W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 E PORT LUDLOW 47 MPH 0425 PM 03/13 47.92N/122.58W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY
AREA...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> MINOT PEAK 43 MPH 1100 AM 03/13 46.89N/123.42W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...NORTH COAST...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>QUILLAYUTE AIRPORT 47 MPH 0355 PM 03/13 47.94N/124.56W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> LA PUSH NOS TIDE GAUGE 42 MPH
0336 PM 03/13
47.91N/124.64W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...OLYMPICS...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HUMPTULLIPS 63 MPH 0308 PM 03/13 47.38N/123.76W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> JEFFERSON CREEK 42 MPH 0536 PM 03/13 47.55N/123.22W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...SAN JUAN COUNTY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>LOPEZ ISLAND 66 MPH 0351 PM 03/13 48.53N/122.87W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 SSW ROCHE HARBOR 58 MPH 0549 PM 03/13 48.55N/123.16W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> NW DECATUR IS. BEACH 51 MPH 0403 PM 03/13 48.51N/122.83W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> FRIDAY HARBOR AIRPORT 51 MPH 0315 PM 03/13 48.52N/123.02W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 SE EASTSOUND 48 MPH 0445 PM 03/13 48.67N/122.87W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ORCAS ISLAND AP 45 MPH 0615 PM 03/13 48.71N/122.91W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...SEATTLE AND VICINITY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>SEATTLE TACOMA ARPT
56 MPH 0138 PM 03/13 47.44N/122.31W <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> BOEING FIELD/KING COUNTY
INT 54 MPH 0130 PM 03/13 47.53N/122.30W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> POINT ROBINSON 53 MPH 0400 PM 03/13 47.39N/122.37W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> NORMANDY PARK 52 MPH 0149 PM 03/13 47.44N/122.34W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 NW WHITE CENTER 49 MPH 0213 PM 03/13 47.56N/122.39W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>UNIV. OF WASHINGTON 49 MPH 0403 PM 03/13 47.65N/122.31W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 SW SEATTLE 48 MPH 0507 PM 03/13 47.58N/122.40W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> RENTON MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT 48 MPH 0220 PM 03/13 47.49N/122.21W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 NNW FEDERAL WAY 45 MPH 0438 PM 03/13 47.34N/122.35W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 NW WHITE CENTER 44 MPH 0415 PM 03/13 47.55N/122.38W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 NW WHITE CENTER 43 MPH 0320 PM 03/13 47.56N/122.39W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 NW SEATTLE 43 MPH 0506 PM 03/13 47.67N/122.41W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 SE SEATTLE 42 MPH 0242 PM 03/13 47.59N/122.32W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 WNW SEATTLE 42 MPH 0455 PM 03/13 47.65N/122.41W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 NE SEATTLE 42 MPH 0159 PM 03/13 47.62N/122.32W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 NE SEATTLE 41 MPH 0317 PM 03/13 47.64N/122.33W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 W KIRKLAND 41 MPH 0330 PM 03/13 47.69N/122.26W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>OLYMPIA AIRPORT 46 MPH 0239 PM 03/13 46.97N/122.90W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> YELM 43 MPH 1250 PM 03/13 46.94N/122.61W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 WNW NISQUALLY 41 MPH 0210 PM 03/13 47.07N/122.72W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 5 S LACEY 40 MPH 0202 PM 03/13 46.96N/122.80W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...TACOMA AREA...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> JBLM-FT LEWIS 58 MPH 1258 PM 03/13 47.08N/122.58W <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> JBLM-MCCHORD 55 MPH 0119 PM 03/13 47.13N/122.48W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 NNE FREDERICKSON 46 MPH 0330 PM 03/13 47.13N/122.34W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>TACOMA NARROWS AIRPORT 44 MPH
0255 PM 03/13
47.27N/122.58W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 NW FIRCREST 43 MPH 0150 PM 03/13 47.25N/122.53W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> RUSTON 41 MPH 0225 PM 03/13 47.30N/122.52W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 NW ARTONDALE 40 MPH 0327 PM 03/13 47.34N/122.67W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 2 SW FEDERAL WAY 40 MPH 0143 PM 03/13 47.29N/122.38W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SOUTH HILL 40 MPH 0302 PM 03/13 47.14N/122.27W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WASHINGTON...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> DESTRUCTION ISLAND 79 MPH 0300 PM 03/13 47.68N/124.49W </b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 SW KBLI 68 MPH 0510 PM 03/13 48.78N/122.56W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> WESTPORT TIDE GAUGE 68 MPH 0200 PM 03/13 46.90N/124.11W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> CHERRY POINT 66 MPH 0436 PM 03/13 48.86N/122.76W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>WEST POINT 66 MPH 0400 PM 03/13 47.66N/122.44W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SMITH ISLAND 60 MPH 0300 PM 03/13 48.32N/122.84W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> POSSESSION SOUND 59 MPH 0413 PM 03/13 48.02N/122.27W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> CAPE ELIZABETH BUOY 58 MPH 0250 PM 03/13 47.30N/124.70W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> S. LOPEZ ISLAND 56 MPH 0304 PM 03/13 48.40N/122.90W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HOOD CANAL BRIDGE 56 MPH
0420 PM 03/13
47.86N/122.62W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> PORT TOWNSEND NOS TIDE
GAUGE 55 MPH 0336 PM 03/13 48.12N/122.75W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> RICHMOND BEACH 55 MPH 0405 PM 03/13 47.77N/122.39W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> BLANCHARD 54 MPH 0350 PM 03/13 48.59N/122.43W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>SEATTLE 52 MPH 0306 PM 03/13 47.60N/122.34W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HEIN BANK BUOY 49 MPH 0550 PM 03/13 48.30N/123.20W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> GOLDEN GARDENS SEATTLE 48 MPH
0305 PM 03/13 47.69N/122.40W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> HENDERSON BAY 48 MPH 0330 PM 03/13 47.38N/122.63W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> WINSLOW FERRY DOCK 44 MPH 0310 PM 03/13 47.62N/122.51W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> POINT WELLS 43 MPH 0410 PM 03/13 47.80N/122.40W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> KEYSTONE FERRY DOCK 43 MPH 0415 PM 03/13 48.16N/122.67W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> PORT OF TACOMA #1 42 MPH 0230 PM 03/13 47.28N/122.42W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 ESE PORT LUDLOW 40 MPH 0327 PM 03/13 47.90N/122.60W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WEST SLOPES NORTH
CASCADES AND PASSES...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> KIDNEY CREEK 41 MPH 0128 PM 03/13 48.92N/121.94W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SUMAS-RAWS 40 MPH 0509 PM 03/13 48.91N/122.22W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WEST SLOPES NORTH
CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> <b>SNOQUALMIE PASS 68 MPH 0500 PM 03/13 47.42N/121.43W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WEST SLOPES SOUTH
CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> PARADISE 45 MPH 0400 PM 03/13 46.78N/121.74W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> SEDRO WOOLLEY-RAWS 47 MPH 0642 PM 03/13 48.52N/122.22W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> BURLINGTON/MOUNT
VERNON 46 MPH 0355 PM 03/13 48.47N/122.42W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> ...WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> SANDY PT. SHORES 68 MPH 0354 PM 03/13 48.80N/122.71W <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> BELLINGHAM INTL AP 64 MPH 0510 PM 03/13 48.79N/122.54W</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> LYNDEN 52 MPH 0535 PM 03/13 48.96N/122.41W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 N FERNDALE 50 MPH 0532 PM 03/13 48.90N/122.58W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> LUMMI ISLAND 47 MPH 0435 PM 03/13 48.73N/122.70W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 W FERNDALE 47 MPH 0427 PM 03/13 48.85N/122.67W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 SSW LYNDEN 47 MPH 0505 PM 03/13 48.89N/122.49W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> BLAINE 46 MPH 0515 PM 03/13 49.00N/122.74W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 4 ENE FERNDALE 44 MPH 0534 PM 03/13 48.88N/122.51W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 3 WSW SUDDEN VALLEY 44 MPH 0415 PM 03/13 48.69N/122.40W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> BLAINE 42 MPH 0523 PM 03/13 49.00N/122.75W <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"><b> BELLINGHAM 41 MPH 0504 PM 03/13 48.74N/122.45W</b> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 9pt;"> 1 WNW LYNDEN 41 MPH 0505 PM 03/13 48.96N/122.48W<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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These gusts are strong, but they aren't anything we've ever seen before. Still, it's pretty impressive to have a 66 mph gust at West Point in mid-March! The Seattle NWS office dubbed this storm the "Pre-St. Patty's Day Punch," which is pretty awesome. When it comes to naming notable weather events, alliteration counts.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYXc67zdeILLt-gDvOZ79fa6qQIjGf1XXiqWuvGUp78zf22cvCxnfXqIKiA8cFpYCeUK7NZ-tv8D3c6ELQRU1w1onYVwnFpR8ZPeaRzn90MG88qHWmdC3vOr_FQI2s6e-LrzMeZLmMoGy7/s1600/maxregion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYXc67zdeILLt-gDvOZ79fa6qQIjGf1XXiqWuvGUp78zf22cvCxnfXqIKiA8cFpYCeUK7NZ-tv8D3c6ELQRU1w1onYVwnFpR8ZPeaRzn90MG88qHWmdC3vOr_FQI2s6e-LrzMeZLmMoGy7/s640/maxregion.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Retrieved from <a href="http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/max-winds.html" target="_blank">Cliff Mass Weather Blog</a></td></tr>
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Here's a picture I took from Cliff Mass' blog of max gusts recorded during the windstorm. As you can see, higher winds were located over the coast and North Interior. There are quite a few low gusts (10s and 20s), and these are from stations that are not well-exposed to the wind. Over water, gusts were in the 45-60 mph range across the region, and coastal headlands (like Destruction Island) accelerated these winds. Camp Muir at 10,110 feet on Mt. Rainier was the wind winner with a gust to 95 mph.</div>
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The most amazing thing about this storm, however, was simply how it appeared on radar and satellite. This was a compact storm, and had a very distinctive bent-back occlusion (the swirl of clouds that spirals counterclockwise to the center of the low). Take a look!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtftn4Aw4BG2PGSToTMELzPl3AC3FoqfKErddKyit3ModTbU2KIZOlTyIjbqF-7yVQFOm9t0DyCfjh6rF_5TsgehWGJq3gNEL8cXCGHTDgaSobQvNUKVTjtP_VzE-EmF7WY2L6ursrSYG_/s1600/PattysDayPunchsatellite.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtftn4Aw4BG2PGSToTMELzPl3AC3FoqfKErddKyit3ModTbU2KIZOlTyIjbqF-7yVQFOm9t0DyCfjh6rF_5TsgehWGJq3gNEL8cXCGHTDgaSobQvNUKVTjtP_VzE-EmF7WY2L6ursrSYG_/s640/PattysDayPunchsatellite.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">09:15 am PDT, Sun 13 Mar 2016<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_waor+/48h/" target="_blank">University of Washington</a></td></tr>
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As this visible satellite image shows, the storm was off the mouth of the Columbia around 9:15 am, and was heading to the NNE. You can see the tight circulation around the low and the intense cold front along the Oregon Coast. Strong winds are occurring along the coast and mountain ridgetops at this time, but winds in the lowlands are relatively low.</div>
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I've seen some cool shots from our coastal radar, but this may very well be the coolest one yet. Take a look at the low! It almost looks like a hurricane. You can really see the movement of the storm with the animated gif below. Moreover, you can see how the reflectivity in the vicinity of the radar increases as time (and wind speed) goes on, and this is due to "sea clutter," or the radar beam reflecting off the top of wave crests. More wind, bigger waves, and thus more sea clutter.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYU8C2kIkQ3ShAyTDQ95T9b3Qn_nb78I2L_U4EHzSmMW2oLm1qi4FlSE1QIlDgkTJ-UsgeE-j-aI8GhHG4CXX2P40bc8VCMbmtj9CJzke7a1cpIooEokcKpnGB4LAqK2qsbucXQ0NFhhqx/s1600/stpattysdaypunch.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYU8C2kIkQ3ShAyTDQ95T9b3Qn_nb78I2L_U4EHzSmMW2oLm1qi4FlSE1QIlDgkTJ-UsgeE-j-aI8GhHG4CXX2P40bc8VCMbmtj9CJzke7a1cpIooEokcKpnGB4LAqK2qsbucXQ0NFhhqx/s640/stpattysdaypunch.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Created with NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit</td></tr>
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Here's the view at 12:10 pm. Compare it to the image from the NASA TERRA polar-orbiting satellite below, which was also taken around 12:10 pm.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-7yFWM46EbnYVC3a0ZVPL2M9tvZzLgVa6-SUkNh-JHK10vwxzxD4ETKnxeHYQ-vS6KD79x4s8m-yNI__fB7fvV_AIT5ESKCcOuxccRing9UoFiC76OguY1HlE_opJr4_sHTR4l12J1og/s1600/1210+image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-7yFWM46EbnYVC3a0ZVPL2M9tvZzLgVa6-SUkNh-JHK10vwxzxD4ETKnxeHYQ-vS6KD79x4s8m-yNI__fB7fvV_AIT5ESKCcOuxccRing9UoFiC76OguY1HlE_opJr4_sHTR4l12J1og/s640/1210+image.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7kINx49ddoZdHAT7Lpdfn2qYhkR2VDz7gJT2BKjtKSyYkwlHvm3Vg5dYKX6NVPU2XtaUVFVBWWI5MVbkOeRoHGvdoWaRF3Y9RYWExIfcNACpbsS6g_xfx_Ptd6KT0bE7-Mcse6q2tMOwD/s1600/PattysDayPunchEOSDIS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="538" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7kINx49ddoZdHAT7Lpdfn2qYhkR2VDz7gJT2BKjtKSyYkwlHvm3Vg5dYKX6NVPU2XtaUVFVBWWI5MVbkOeRoHGvdoWaRF3Y9RYWExIfcNACpbsS6g_xfx_Ptd6KT0bE7-Mcse6q2tMOwD/s640/PattysDayPunchEOSDIS.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image taken ~12:10 pm by NASA's TERRA satellite<br />
Credit: <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">NASA</a></td></tr>
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There were strong winds over 520, and the bridge was closed for a while. I can't remember the last time that happened, but it has been a long time!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIX6KrStI_KV3qQCiFKXBcvsoa9iZhr28c3KGyJnLkEOzqKBENCB-KRYfpTo-KaCh41tHZbJJUXrN8HUDchlnllajqrHEyfOlY_4pRFI3grItxgXXGIV91aV00zcrRHEcNAMKkYEPO_0jC/s1600/Gusty520.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIX6KrStI_KV3qQCiFKXBcvsoa9iZhr28c3KGyJnLkEOzqKBENCB-KRYfpTo-KaCh41tHZbJJUXrN8HUDchlnllajqrHEyfOlY_4pRFI3grItxgXXGIV91aV00zcrRHEcNAMKkYEPO_0jC/s640/Gusty520.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://twitter.com/nwsseattle" target="_blank">National Weather Service </a></td></tr>
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But, of course, the day finished on a beautiful note. Take a look at this <i>incredible</i> photo out at Alki Point from Tim Durkan. That has to be one of the most brilliant double rainbows I've ever seen.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4QxeNn4XKbcrNyz-A_wUTrgChMKIfzT7Ju6_kdg7fCA-zwwxAT5rM2tjl3PBITiiGD1UjZmBgMhc64FQFqdC6v3l5OCtennn_Bk1MAGcUhC-B3Ts1XhYUADwEjQFRE9iPKTFOG6wg5GDG/s1600/SeattleAlkiPointRainbow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4QxeNn4XKbcrNyz-A_wUTrgChMKIfzT7Ju6_kdg7fCA-zwwxAT5rM2tjl3PBITiiGD1UjZmBgMhc64FQFqdC6v3l5OCtennn_Bk1MAGcUhC-B3Ts1XhYUADwEjQFRE9iPKTFOG6wg5GDG/s640/SeattleAlkiPointRainbow.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://twitter.com/timdurkan" target="_blank">Tim Durkan</a></td></tr>
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Thanks for reading! Things look much calmer this week, especially after Wednesday. Inclement weather returns for the weekend, but it won't be anything like what we saw this past week.</div>
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Thank you!</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-34210183901594451712016-03-12T23:39:00.004-08:002016-03-12T23:39:53.792-08:00Windstorm on Sunday?Saturday, March 12, 2016<div>
11:21 pm</div>
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Just a really quick post... I got back home really late tonight and have to wake up in six hours to go hit the ski slopes and teach some ski lessons! </div>
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We've got the potential for a strong windstorm on Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and track of this system, and even though those uncertainties are relatively small, a storm even a little bit weaker than forecast and further away from us could leave us with a few broken limbs here in Seattle, while a stronger storm closer to our region could result in widespread power outages.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuFH4LCPaJJCpKGqBi-sO02smB0WqjQ2rc2ui3vHVvMemz4czWdDFHSVjnWlrOwyHo_NDf1KWFZaiWErFRYh18v2REjDCWcXtW88UnxVpmQnWAp04hvsmWyzNuQJ8Hk5S7zVoEdxeAWXnt/s1600/ScreenHunter_930+Mar.+12+23.15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuFH4LCPaJJCpKGqBi-sO02smB0WqjQ2rc2ui3vHVvMemz4czWdDFHSVjnWlrOwyHo_NDf1KWFZaiWErFRYh18v2REjDCWcXtW88UnxVpmQnWAp04hvsmWyzNuQJ8Hk5S7zVoEdxeAWXnt/s640/ScreenHunter_930+Mar.+12+23.15.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a></td></tr>
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The National Weather Service currently has high wind warnings for Western Washington and Storm Warnings for all waters (excluding the western entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca). Any time there are Storm Warnings for Puget Sound, it's time to prepare for a major windstorm. </div>
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The National Weather Service is calling for gusts up to 70 mph throughout much of the region, including the Seattle area. However, tonight's models are more bearish with the low. <b>At this point, I'd expect gusts to top out around 50-55 mph for most folks. </b>However, as previously stated, small changes in the track and strength of the low could result in huge differences in wind speeds.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuIFdyg1BHieuVG7v_Wly_tqnw5cpyOdngDi_f_KWa0R3X5J6A1y8l48NrD13M7VU4g95avvb1nU1semwSn4uVpb-7nv4BPQPDztJyVXHGr0I_ORXJreK4A4r2XSdIU-yJbhY9WnKl53os/s1600/CdZMMV9VAAADwcV.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuIFdyg1BHieuVG7v_Wly_tqnw5cpyOdngDi_f_KWa0R3X5J6A1y8l48NrD13M7VU4g95avvb1nU1semwSn4uVpb-7nv4BPQPDztJyVXHGr0I_ORXJreK4A4r2XSdIU-yJbhY9WnKl53os/s640/CdZMMV9VAAADwcV.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a></td></tr>
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Right now, the low doesn't look all that threatening, but it is developing at a very fast clip right now. Take a look at the water vapor satellite pic below.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWxSe9fNXyrhSdR0uw4s0nE0d50m6g0xQP2Pi_VkfbZsc0YezAkGtsKYT1z7dyR3RWkSJX5sei_FrFcfL_4RrBtvBjYl9m-76DESWzswNnDydjt-wmue_5ws0KWYzk9reccErntFMPAIWf/s1600/WV4NW.GIF.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWxSe9fNXyrhSdR0uw4s0nE0d50m6g0xQP2Pi_VkfbZsc0YezAkGtsKYT1z7dyR3RWkSJX5sei_FrFcfL_4RrBtvBjYl9m-76DESWzswNnDydjt-wmue_5ws0KWYzk9reccErntFMPAIWf/s640/WV4NW.GIF.8.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image taken 11 pm 3/12/2016<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a></td></tr>
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One thing's for sure - the mountains will a LOT of snow. Even the passes will likely get close to a foot of snow from noon Sunday to noon Monday, so bring chains if you are headed into the mountains. You might need them!</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-13091437412115251282016-03-10T19:01:00.000-08:002016-03-10T19:11:49.235-08:00Brief Southeast Sucker ReviewThursday, March 10, 2016<br />
3:00 pm<br />
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That "Southeast Sucker" I blogged about last night stormed ashore early this morning, and delivered a sucker punch to a wider area of the region than I initially forecast. The system actually ended up coming a little closer to our region than the models showed, so the I-5 corridor got a good dose of wind as well. Here are some wind gusts from across the region as compiled by the Seattle National Weather Service.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmLLupIFEAnA_e5Wcwmc61HtIEq-QVjwqaQEfJ3K2R1wi1a8eg7sA9hp54BlkypeesInLliv_Sx0yeGtmQ5S3xRY4FWvNDsZYE02BRxhnLGLRqUPzfC05E4P4dbhXBec92OvDWUU7fn4bG/s1600/CdNCE7eVIAAZ8Xm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmLLupIFEAnA_e5Wcwmc61HtIEq-QVjwqaQEfJ3K2R1wi1a8eg7sA9hp54BlkypeesInLliv_Sx0yeGtmQ5S3xRY4FWvNDsZYE02BRxhnLGLRqUPzfC05E4P4dbhXBec92OvDWUU7fn4bG/s640/CdNCE7eVIAAZ8Xm.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The most impressive winds were at mountain sites. An anemometer at the top of Mission Ridge recorded a gust of 127 mph from the WSW this morning, and as you can see, both Mt. Baker and Crystal Mountain received gusts over 100 mph as well. Coastal headlands were the next windiest place, with Naselle Ridge on the southwestern Washington Coast hitting a staggering 104 mph and nearby Megler hitting 99 mph! Areas in the Northern Interior were quite windy as well, with many areas hitting 60 mph. Even the Central Sound got some action, with gusts approaching 50 at many locations around Seattle. Sea-Tac hit 44.<br />
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The map below shows some of the peak gusts recorded over the past 24 hours (from 5 pm Wednesday to now). As you can see, the mouth of the Columbia really got hit hard... Astoria had four separate gusts over 70 mph!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDAEr0kru7gVBtB6F5e3RX2WgH_VJUqSw35tCynUvhORIC42Pnb6_RT5KrjMnO0c0zMzF1QXbmI6sHMks5qV4rv0rw_4hzcoWzpoDIL_ZRV0mwoXchD1zfXLDs2swvwKt4vgevm2fGuNT5/s1600/ScreenHunter_928+Mar.+10+17.03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDAEr0kru7gVBtB6F5e3RX2WgH_VJUqSw35tCynUvhORIC42Pnb6_RT5KrjMnO0c0zMzF1QXbmI6sHMks5qV4rv0rw_4hzcoWzpoDIL_ZRV0mwoXchD1zfXLDs2swvwKt4vgevm2fGuNT5/s640/ScreenHunter_928+Mar.+10+17.03.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/" target="_blank">National Weather Service - Western Region Headquarters</a></td></tr>
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You may have heard that there was a spectacular solar eclipse yesterday (an event worthy of its own blog). Although the eclipse itself did not affect us, it meant that there were abnormally high astronomical tides, since the sun and moon were in perfect alignment. Combine this with low pressure, strong winds, and high waves, and you've got a recipe for coastal flooding. Check out some of the flooding in downtown Vancouver yesterday!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg49ABYxfgU2bSgiHbqodHwyI7OinMAOPl0aIx5nBFU-9RUI6_lsmg1L81U1acLa8S2ghF8igeL-YFmk2e7NbULyb4WgFKsFRVSF0qceO-7L8orcZImYF_Ajq_dPT21aPu4ggwaClUAjOz/s1600/CdMid1yUsAATFOw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg49ABYxfgU2bSgiHbqodHwyI7OinMAOPl0aIx5nBFU-9RUI6_lsmg1L81U1acLa8S2ghF8igeL-YFmk2e7NbULyb4WgFKsFRVSF0qceO-7L8orcZImYF_Ajq_dPT21aPu4ggwaClUAjOz/s640/CdMid1yUsAATFOw.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkWilliamsVAN/status/707947481221337088" target="_blank">Kirk Williams</a></td></tr>
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There was plenty of coastal flooding in Washington as well. Check out some pictures of a road in Lummi Island being flooded this morning! Photos retrieved from the <a href="https://twitter.com/BellinghamFire/status/707988503024414720" target="_blank">Bellingham Fire Department Twitter feed</a>.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV2SjfUJ5eqyzvc2rXvUiq74zZ8r47RNB-wgDMkS7Q6Km2aMcSneIcZ01ZxeGRvrcuETmpM3NGdLa3aJxw6WvZixfqTXyR0KHogob6FnO2kOMlu6dLCGzF9p3mKBD0VbgzZjUgDfDD1M0y/s1600/CdNHypcUUAQ-Skw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV2SjfUJ5eqyzvc2rXvUiq74zZ8r47RNB-wgDMkS7Q6Km2aMcSneIcZ01ZxeGRvrcuETmpM3NGdLa3aJxw6WvZixfqTXyR0KHogob6FnO2kOMlu6dLCGzF9p3mKBD0VbgzZjUgDfDD1M0y/s400/CdNHypcUUAQ-Skw.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQzEhB7dcPNe3lB3TeuSpJqVYiiNS36WjAWQFPTg3gPPDTRgHu07je8vwZjudGnqhsIXMdvmChap0F0maPRbvl9Rd0Hc2AhIZkfxnnGsLssLONdvanDtEVBPBmY94l_eGl1T4WjAsVvlS0/s1600/CdNHyh5VAAAjZXx.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQzEhB7dcPNe3lB3TeuSpJqVYiiNS36WjAWQFPTg3gPPDTRgHu07je8vwZjudGnqhsIXMdvmChap0F0maPRbvl9Rd0Hc2AhIZkfxnnGsLssLONdvanDtEVBPBmY94l_eGl1T4WjAsVvlS0/s400/CdNHyh5VAAAjZXx.jpg" width="225" /></a><br />
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There was plenty of damage away from the water though. Take a look at what happened to this poor Home Depot in Bellingham! It's one thing to see trees down, but to see significant structural damage like this is pretty impressive.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5-gspYKmEc62izV9vLUU6E1vA6MtKYWH2J5k0Q4n7DKQS5zppggbh0I46zwpZIXWCX_VbN4mE5rakVg1_dqE6L71B5qi8g8lTBd8NYpImQRqTmDNWpke1uMvwM7XVmlk7kNFuyIym7_gU/s1600/CdNCQm5UUAAtvzI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5-gspYKmEc62izV9vLUU6E1vA6MtKYWH2J5k0Q4n7DKQS5zppggbh0I46zwpZIXWCX_VbN4mE5rakVg1_dqE6L71B5qi8g8lTBd8NYpImQRqTmDNWpke1uMvwM7XVmlk7kNFuyIym7_gU/s640/CdNCQm5UUAAtvzI.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://twitter.com/KGMIRadio" target="_blank">KGMI Radio</a></td></tr>
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With the North Interior and Coast taking the brunt of this storm, this was a classic Southeast Sucker event. It may have gotten breezy in Seattle, but there's no comparison to what we experienced here in the Seattle metropolitan area and what the Home Depot experienced in Bellingham.<br />
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It's hard for me to concentrate while writing this right now... I'm listening to the Donald talk about how he is a unifier. This debate is relatively boring compared to debates past.<br />
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Charlie<br />
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Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-92199773982065636572016-03-09T15:02:00.001-08:002016-03-09T15:20:10.791-08:00The Southeast Sucker!Wednesday, March 9, 2016<br />
12:09 pm<br />
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Meteorologists used to have very interesting names for different types of weather. I was introduced to the famed "Pineapple Express" back in elementary school, when it rained 5.02 inches at Sea-Tac during one incredibly rainy 5th grade day. Unfortunately, Pineapple Express seems to have fallen out of favor among meteorologists due to the rise of a potent cannabis strain of the same name, and has been replaced by the much more lifeless "atmospheric river." Indeed, it seems like creativity is being thrown out in favor of bland scientific jargon. How many times have you seen a meteorologist add the word "event" to any type of weather we experience? A "cyclone" has become a "wind event," a flood has become a "rain event," and in my opinion, it's only a matter of time before a "heat wave" becomes a "temperature event."</div>
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Thankfully, there are still plenty of meteorologists out there who have given creative yet intuitive names to the different types of weather we experience. We have "Tornado Alley," "snowpocalypse," and the "ozone hole." In our neck of the woods, we have the "rain shadow," the "convergence zone," and, of course, the "Blob." We have cyclogenic bombs and omega blocks, cloud streets and mackerel sky, El Nino and La Nina... the list goes on and on.</div>
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But my favorite of all of them? The "Southeast Sucker."</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BBHssizP1BrLRIiYM96eafYT86YtnsBEoialmO0lDlR87CMKvknYDWTHOn3k-zCRI58lPNtOAa21Zgec3efLu2t9zqyfQvwga1Up4haNZlKsr6JVukRo4Zytn-uVFS0_4pmdMPu1jNbj/s1600/200712030500.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BBHssizP1BrLRIiYM96eafYT86YtnsBEoialmO0lDlR87CMKvknYDWTHOn3k-zCRI58lPNtOAa21Zgec3efLu2t9zqyfQvwga1Up4haNZlKsr6JVukRo4Zytn-uVFS0_4pmdMPu1jNbj/s640/200712030500.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Great Coastal Gale, the "mother of all Southeast Suckers" - <a href="http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/December2007.html" target="_blank">Wolf Read</a><br />
Image taken 09:00 pm PST, Sun 02 Dec 2007<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/archive.html" target="_blank">University of Washington Online Weather Data Archive</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JRQlsJtDgvSawNZEpiPLcyTUBeFMfD5GG8koj4GJkJM8S3-l-9f8MAz-hSXju_Dlj7TuArx9ttC-D41PB-jONTUsa7JZn9xGdPWnqgPTI0cI1Xvx5DfCnpWzsebaVDMuUNz9TTEd9XGw/s1600/201603092230.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JRQlsJtDgvSawNZEpiPLcyTUBeFMfD5GG8koj4GJkJM8S3-l-9f8MAz-hSXju_Dlj7TuArx9ttC-D41PB-jONTUsa7JZn9xGdPWnqgPTI0cI1Xvx5DfCnpWzsebaVDMuUNz9TTEd9XGw/s640/201603092230.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our current Southeast Sucker<br />
Image taken 02:30 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+1" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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A Southeast Sucker is simply a strong windstorm that, due to a fairly far track offshore, creates a pressure gradient over our area that is more east-west oriented than north-south oriented. When this happens, the peak winds in many regions have a strong easterly component. With these storms, the strongest winds are generally found over the coast, the northern interior, and places that are exposed to easterly "gap" winds coming off the Cascades. Enumclaw and North Bend are two places that commonly get strong winds during southeast sucker events, but areas closer to the I-5 corridor can still get breezy if they have ample southeastern exposure.</div>
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However, with the exception of the foothills and Northern Interior, most of the Pacific Northwest lowlands west of the Cascades only get moderately breezy from these types of storms. This is because mountain ranges (the Olympics in Washington and the Coast Range in Oregon) help shelter these areas from strong winds and pressure gradients associated with the Sucker.</div>
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Here's what the National Weather Service had to say about the Sucker this morning.</div>
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"INLAND AREAS OF WRN WA WILL ALSO GET SOME WINDY WEATHER...THIS DEEP LOW IS A CLASSIC SOUTHEASTERLY SUCKER FOR THE INLAND PTN OF WRN WA AND THE WINDY SPOTS WILL BE FROM ADMIRALTY INLET UP THROUGH WHIDBEY AND THE SAN JUANS AND FROM ANACORTES TO BELLINGHAM BAY. FULL GALES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND...LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE."</div>
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They also produced a handy graphic to outline the impacts of the storm, shown below.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKJgqFyQb10OFPUExu4RAlbQ8xKsOwF8IaqkI0X7gpr2CaNAyI97-t2sX-7MoOa01DNvthfwqCZGhYPP_443hGeqgKXyLJDnU9I1Pf3cMtbRgrv2YMp2XpF2Cojk-RfXmObdlR8hXtsEeO/s1600/make_img.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKJgqFyQb10OFPUExu4RAlbQ8xKsOwF8IaqkI0X7gpr2CaNAyI97-t2sX-7MoOa01DNvthfwqCZGhYPP_443hGeqgKXyLJDnU9I1Pf3cMtbRgrv2YMp2XpF2Cojk-RfXmObdlR8hXtsEeO/s640/make_img.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sew" target="_blank">National Weather Service - Seattle</a></td></tr>
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As you can see, the coast is expected to be the windiest, as it is closest to the storm and receives strong winds coming off the ocean, and it is currently under a high wind warning. The North Interior actually just got bumped up from a wind advisory to a high wind warning, and winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 60 are expected there. Meanwhile, there are no wind warnings, advisories, or watches anywhere else in Western Washington, as the Olympics shelter many of us from these strong southeast winds. With our storms, the coast and north interior are almost always more windy than the Puget Sound lowlands, but this effect is amplified during these Southeast Sucker events.</div>
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Let's take a look at the track and winds of the current storm.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl9EbBiKLPO5IvzF0pWr1LClWJAB8j4cYcOeYAY9bgRNWZC4glNpGW9d6tk2y3Cizj1AHA26VVLHKMKA8uNVX0G98ADi89wG2He51EIg9PNbLmJIq-BnGQhMDypCOzPGWJeQINuP_MV-Sk/s1600/wssfc.12.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl9EbBiKLPO5IvzF0pWr1LClWJAB8j4cYcOeYAY9bgRNWZC4glNpGW9d6tk2y3Cizj1AHA26VVLHKMKA8uNVX0G98ADi89wG2He51EIg9PNbLmJIq-BnGQhMDypCOzPGWJeQINuP_MV-Sk/s640/wssfc.12.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 12hr Fcst</td></tr>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
At 4 pm, the storm is between 130 and 135 degrees west longitude and around 45 degrees latitude. There are two centers of low pressure within the general cyclone itself, and this is not conducive to rapid storm development. Nevertheless, the cyclone is pretty deep at ~977 mb and will continue deepening. The coast, particularly the Oregon Coast, is experiencing high winds at this time.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJcUgDGRa7HKOUlbOYFRQ2qP8fMTZqyiPYZld6CjV9iIzVoMP-bx-uqXf0qpW8194L133AhJKwDFwSA_LnJwbbAGXv8lHm1r7o2KfZr_Y3rhHvLN1TfznqKcryDT_XPT0H1mnGdEB4Ig84/s1600/wssfc.18.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJcUgDGRa7HKOUlbOYFRQ2qP8fMTZqyiPYZld6CjV9iIzVoMP-bx-uqXf0qpW8194L133AhJKwDFwSA_LnJwbbAGXv8lHm1r7o2KfZr_Y3rhHvLN1TfznqKcryDT_XPT0H1mnGdEB4Ig84/s640/wssfc.18.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 10:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 18hr Fcst</td></tr>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
By tonight, the storm has deepened further and is generally heading to the northeast. The two individual low pressure centers are doing a drunken waltz around each other and hindering the storm's development in the process. The front is approaching the coastline, and is bringing very strong winds with it. I would not be surprised if Cape Blanco, an exposed headland on the Southern Oregon Coast, receives gusts well over 100 mph from this storm.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG2NrQiIx6IaJm6Exst1lq121Aau2SXU8Iz6rMQTRE_Bdm4NNqBrvzZTSvDj5uLOQeL8jU4eF3S30s-K75ZD6ZH-ZCIwsC69pUiQwRX8CEZ1FcsIVGYuhUbW_WDn8fk5Bclo8ng_m4X7Se/s1600/wssfc.24.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG2NrQiIx6IaJm6Exst1lq121Aau2SXU8Iz6rMQTRE_Bdm4NNqBrvzZTSvDj5uLOQeL8jU4eF3S30s-K75ZD6ZH-ZCIwsC69pUiQwRX8CEZ1FcsIVGYuhUbW_WDn8fk5Bclo8ng_m4X7Se/s640/wssfc.24.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 24hr Fcst</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The storm continues to deepen early Thursday morning, and a powerful round of high winds approaches the Washington coast. It is now traveling to the NNE.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67hDpOiDl5Hs8vKxfV1aEOFLS2wMXzdLC0HVL1FSynV9dDsrf03kB0D2JinQarnHFNz11RRqA_mFROorSrj4H19va6bE8c89uxpoTWOUIVEglV6ABnCN1JtPnqn_hxrQ0KGb9PEbPdbA0/s1600/wssfc.30.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67hDpOiDl5Hs8vKxfV1aEOFLS2wMXzdLC0HVL1FSynV9dDsrf03kB0D2JinQarnHFNz11RRqA_mFROorSrj4H19va6bE8c89uxpoTWOUIVEglV6ABnCN1JtPnqn_hxrQ0KGb9PEbPdbA0/s640/wssfc.30.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 10:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 30hr Fcst</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The storm continues its northeastward trajectory before weakening and slipping to the south. Through it all, the coast has gotten absolutely pounded, the North Interior has taken a good beating, and most inland areas have escaped relatively unscathed. However, they will be wet, with some of the volcanic peaks such as Mt. Rainier and Mt. St. Helens possibly picking up as much as 10 inches of rain in 24 hours!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAzPWbojDDzUnbmYKmJ62w0_eOFo3fXbMiA5nvCJw215MwZbQpi1js6Wir48FJGl2SlGTNRd3GjTFEJfCrsOPV_sn4zYipu9h1R8CNk44xI10w9Mtb5QTr7uwjptd3AthBOTdAspf3DppK/s1600/ww_pcp24.24.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAzPWbojDDzUnbmYKmJ62w0_eOFo3fXbMiA5nvCJw215MwZbQpi1js6Wir48FJGl2SlGTNRd3GjTFEJfCrsOPV_sn4zYipu9h1R8CNk44xI10w9Mtb5QTr7uwjptd3AthBOTdAspf3DppK/s640/ww_pcp24.24.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 24 Fcst</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
One more picture, and then I'll peace for now. This graphic shows the surface winds just like the graphics above, but does so at much higher resolution. If you look carefully, you can really see the easterly component to the winds north of the dramatic warm front near Grays Harbor.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Additionally, you can see that there are strong winds at the exit regions of gaps, with breezy conditions near Enumclaw, Randle, Gold Bar, and many other locations in the Cascade foothills. The northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula is particularly windy, with sustained winds of 45 knots near Tatooosh Island. I'm looking forward to reviewing some of the wind velocities from Tatoosh Island after this storm has passed, as they could be quite impressive.</div>
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLZHuRtccNdjH3SmMA_TahkgK9GjMam_-ekIF23gS3vi23Dl8K6dLRmDQqLnbxoBPI2qVXhFEi9PbNC8-_hFIBjw2vOAjiWErAc3kVEwVipS0TYD2T7V4ElCAszXc77-PDQNCMAnApq2y9/s1600/ww_wssfc.12.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLZHuRtccNdjH3SmMA_TahkgK9GjMam_-ekIF23gS3vi23Dl8K6dLRmDQqLnbxoBPI2qVXhFEi9PbNC8-_hFIBjw2vOAjiWErAc3kVEwVipS0TYD2T7V4ElCAszXc77-PDQNCMAnApq2y9/s640/ww_wssfc.12.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 12hr Fcst</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Even though it will be mild, snow levels won't be sky high. It's snowing at Snoqualmie Pass right now. Let's hope it stays that way!</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Peace for now,</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-66525801532116439602016-03-08T16:19:00.000-08:002016-03-08T16:19:23.061-08:00Seattle's Rainiest Winter EverMonday, March 7, 2016<br />
1:43 pm<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS94duAXnmIBvck73It6oNAGKs9Ivq7XOPNrMdlLA-uP7FrOynSEkzLvIPzi3gnr0WqMfBqwujjafc1HoQTaBs2x0ETSGZEpLfExc9zBMHt6YdDzedf6Lx-2nfSseOnX6Yl_DpxqG8dfNf/s1600/11219422_947008405369287_5229990796388820533_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS94duAXnmIBvck73It6oNAGKs9Ivq7XOPNrMdlLA-uP7FrOynSEkzLvIPzi3gnr0WqMfBqwujjafc1HoQTaBs2x0ETSGZEpLfExc9zBMHt6YdDzedf6Lx-2nfSseOnX6Yl_DpxqG8dfNf/s640/11219422_947008405369287_5229990796388820533_n.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Snohomish River topping its banks on December 9, 2015.<br />
Credit: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/JBHawkinsphotography/" target="_blank">Brie Hawkins</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I'll be the first to admit that weather forecasters are often wrong. After all, weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 90 percent of the time and keep your job. Still, this winter has flummoxed many seasonal weather forecasters on the West Coast, and although it may not cost them their jobs, it is certainly bringing to light our ineptitude with regards to seasonal forecasting. Forecast models were adamant that the Pacific Northwest would see drier-than-normal conditions throughout the winter, and that the Southwest would be wetter than normal, bringing desperately-needed rainfall to drought-stricken California. Instead, the Pacific Northwest had one of their wettest winters on record, and the southwest was actually drier than normal. Although farmers in our region aren't complaining, I'm sure that many in California are absolutely furious at meteorologists. I know I would be!<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF3UCem-IdEv8efsR_MSvl6Q6RzYGs4A6y3Njxi2xS2IIDjpvtgsLMRi6Whlz-9DVwcfXUZR4PoYaZdJoy5o2N_op3GKwKUDzXXrj1fEwnQVgvmO5_xWbA35kfENgFCiA9GE1_8TcGVPI/s1600/anomimage+%25281%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF3UCem-IdEv8efsR_MSvl6Q6RzYGs4A6y3Njxi2xS2IIDjpvtgsLMRi6Whlz-9DVwcfXUZR4PoYaZdJoy5o2N_op3GKwKUDzXXrj1fEwnQVgvmO5_xWbA35kfENgFCiA9GE1_8TcGVPI/s640/anomimage+%25281%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
In fact, since our October 1st, which is the beginning of our "water year," some places in the Pacific Northwest have received more than 20 inches above average of their precipitation for this period. In fact, many areas on the Olympic Peninsula have picked up over 100 inches of rain since then!<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, Los Angeles and other areas in Southern California are running several inches below average. Talk about no rest for the weary!<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiivVWqHBt4g8XcEk7QXJ6UW9k9Si2aD0FTs5y6rQtpasnvT9TZVO27YEyZ4wJau5Dy1PNUWM91B89oqmf-V8sPJ8rhM5l2j98ohEKFAfGTlCDJxH9DPA7oj0whnpUqFA1lwivHzXXmt2ye/s1600/March+07%252C+2016+Water+Year+to+Date+%2528Oct.+1%2529+Observed+Precipitation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiivVWqHBt4g8XcEk7QXJ6UW9k9Si2aD0FTs5y6rQtpasnvT9TZVO27YEyZ4wJau5Dy1PNUWM91B89oqmf-V8sPJ8rhM5l2j98ohEKFAfGTlCDJxH9DPA7oj0whnpUqFA1lwivHzXXmt2ye/s640/March+07%252C+2016+Water+Year+to+Date+%2528Oct.+1%2529+Observed+Precipitation.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://water.weather.gov/precip/" target="_blank">National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjalfCOM04RtqIcRgHnx5bZZwrHQjBS1mTtvhl5gQPF1_iftHtMR5DUo1UPjtlINDvczTpDRAO4xYcBxUKU13xCkk-_ZW7Xg_RGuyDk8VoHJDVbqBlh1ZQnuL06HVcjn4uVRVzHQKA3qmjw/s1600/anomimage+%25282%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjalfCOM04RtqIcRgHnx5bZZwrHQjBS1mTtvhl5gQPF1_iftHtMR5DUo1UPjtlINDvczTpDRAO4xYcBxUKU13xCkk-_ZW7Xg_RGuyDk8VoHJDVbqBlh1ZQnuL06HVcjn4uVRVzHQKA3qmjw/s640/anomimage+%25282%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So, what happened?<br />
<br />
El Ninos generally give wetter-than-normal conditions to California after the New Year (there is little correlation before January 1st), and this is due to a large area of low pressure setting up in the Eastern Pacific, allowing the jet stream to sag southward into California. We had a wet October and November and a downright stormy December, and while an El Nino pattern did develop after the New Year, there was also a persistent ridge of high pressure over Southern California, pushing the jet stream back north into our region for extended periods of time and giving us relatively warm and wet southwesterly flow in the process. In the graphic below, the negative anomalies correspond to areas of lower pressure and vise versa.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Dia4KTDHZlqNtAeefHYL9T-T3wOQnvmdU0yMfI_IL-dh3d3mLIOkKbGGC1kIsbe1MLzLFhTqouMOVXWNfoaplH__xpo11JVVjJd6Y72g3HpLG8GxoYZymTQrlsVf1CxsDTjm1ogD6Qi9/s1600/in8V_rsSeH.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Dia4KTDHZlqNtAeefHYL9T-T3wOQnvmdU0yMfI_IL-dh3d3mLIOkKbGGC1kIsbe1MLzLFhTqouMOVXWNfoaplH__xpo11JVVjJd6Y72g3HpLG8GxoYZymTQrlsVf1CxsDTjm1ogD6Qi9/s640/in8V_rsSeH.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl" target="_blank">NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
"Astronomical winter" is defined as the period from the winter solstice to the vernal (spring) equinox, which is approximately from December 21st to March 20th, with the dates occasionally changing due to one calendar year not being exactly equal to the period of the Earth's orbit around the sun. However, most people would agree that Hanukkah feels more winter-ish than St. Patrick's Day, so we've come up with the term "meteorological winter" to define winter based on what the weather is like outside.<br />
<br />
Meteorological winter is officially defined as December 1st to February 28 for the entire country. We had the wettest meteorological winter on record by far here in Seattle, with 24.54 inches of rain from December to the 28th of February (and 24.63 inches if you count February 29th), besting the record of 22.77 inches set in 1998-1999.<br />
<br />
Cliff Mass, one of my atmospheric sciences professors at the University of Washington, defines our "meteorological winter" as the period from October 1st to March 1st, and while this is a fair bit broader than the previous definition, it makes sense, considering that these are the primary months that our storms come through. For this reason, October 1st is said to mark the beginning of the "water year," and boy oh boy did we have a lot of water this year. From October 1st to March 1st, we had 38.62 inches of rain in Sea-Tac, breaking the previous record of 38.19 (also set in 1998-1999). That's more rain than Sea-Tac usually receives in an entire year! Seattle has nearly 40 inches as of Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rains and flooding are predicted Wednesday night, with unsettled weather the rest of the week.<br />
<br />
My personal definition of meteorological winter is from Veteran's Day to Valentine's Day, because it's nearly impossible to get significant lowland snowstorms here outside of those dates. Compiling statistics for my own "meteorological winter" definition would be extremely time-consuming and not very productive, but I'm willing to bet that 2015-2016 was also the wettest year for the Veteran's Day to Valentine's Day time frame.<br />
<br />
An interesting thing to note was that although this winter was very wet, we didn't have a ton of record-breaking rainfall events. Instead, we simply remained in a rainy pattern for the entire winter and had relatively few dry spells.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5d37XApQg1bJgSSY9d0dISUxVB6jB-fy5LDp6lE6GsQ-iinko1TqkxNphGLbklFYMcxJdSeZ9JQ1sVBAoK_3bIAr4Av4FPT9rONyqQRAxJ05rlVkBwHrMMuRrVI_0O8Icsie0AoL8KLNm/s1600/BIG_temp836173.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5d37XApQg1bJgSSY9d0dISUxVB6jB-fy5LDp6lE6GsQ-iinko1TqkxNphGLbklFYMcxJdSeZ9JQ1sVBAoK_3bIAr4Av4FPT9rONyqQRAxJ05rlVkBwHrMMuRrVI_0O8Icsie0AoL8KLNm/s640/BIG_temp836173.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6jKEl02PnGnhbPmtLAGGYx3g3M26R6ysDGthzNcLxkMAzveaTVhgTB-yTpmOd5GTLxZTY0S1GAMV0S83ZsJ3xrM71cH4xL57T28j2CcCMXuOjgvq-1oPvP1-je3kewrKAYFN-nhDYg56g/s1600/BIG_temp029611.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6jKEl02PnGnhbPmtLAGGYx3g3M26R6ysDGthzNcLxkMAzveaTVhgTB-yTpmOd5GTLxZTY0S1GAMV0S83ZsJ3xrM71cH4xL57T28j2CcCMXuOjgvq-1oPvP1-je3kewrKAYFN-nhDYg56g/s640/BIG_temp029611.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/nw_wx_climate.html" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Even though we've been wet, we've also been warmer than normal (though not nearly as warm as we were last year). As such, our snowpack is right around normal. But you can bet your bonnet that our streams and reservoirs are running high and that our soils are saturated. Salmon will have a much easier time getting up the rivers to spawn this autumn, and hopefully we will have less fire danger this summer due to increased soil and crop moisture.<br />
<br />
In the meantime, long range forecasts are predicting us to be cooler and wetter for next winter as we head into a La Nina pattern! However, after this winter, I'm not sure whether I should ever believe the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks again.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhug1sgFHCJC9ZPeUXoUVm_EKOEbvBEkqBOl5SyoOCcg7IxCHG_fXkeLoYaQBjMQX8b4VVahwcaXzPk9MemQj8K6P_J4394xJOkKkpltNBhLN0Sz5zG4DKiN1ekKEO5FwzoZYT8pTxYqzQZ/s1600/CczRP5pVIAEi-MK.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhug1sgFHCJC9ZPeUXoUVm_EKOEbvBEkqBOl5SyoOCcg7IxCHG_fXkeLoYaQBjMQX8b4VVahwcaXzPk9MemQj8K6P_J4394xJOkKkpltNBhLN0Sz5zG4DKiN1ekKEO5FwzoZYT8pTxYqzQZ/s640/CczRP5pVIAEi-MK.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cliff Mass at the 2016 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop talking about how bad our seasonal precipitation forecasts were this year. Credit: <a href="https://twitter.com/LJohnsonWX/status/706169458289553408/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">Logan Johnson</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Thanks for reading!<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-82187398265305899452016-02-29T21:52:00.002-08:002016-02-29T21:59:33.130-08:00The Transition of SeasonsThursday, February 25, 2016<br />
12:17 pm<br />
<br />
I apologize for the delay in blog posts and Facebook updates. Yes, I've been busy, but moreover, there hasn't been much weather going on. I've had trouble thinking of things to write about, so I've started posts and just never finished them. Perhaps one day I will.<br />
<br />
Then, it occurred to me. Perhaps I should write a blog about our lack of weather. There is something to be said for nothing happening, especially after having one of the wettest winters on record for the area (and by some measures, the wettest winter of all time). After all, in the words of the Whether Man, "it is more important to know whether there will be weather, whether than what the weather will be."<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw7OE6G8M8j8XezB7EMJo4gcr8Sz7j26wqpva19irsOq-oTRisr6KZNVss5hCH-0T_ExOcmzzI3wC96E5OPrChay05gS1PMpDCeMkBlUoD0uAyQ0ZVd0GOqg9wUxn4g_s2fbEBmlcJRkTJ/s1600/whetherman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw7OE6G8M8j8XezB7EMJo4gcr8Sz7j26wqpva19irsOq-oTRisr6KZNVss5hCH-0T_ExOcmzzI3wC96E5OPrChay05gS1PMpDCeMkBlUoD0uAyQ0ZVd0GOqg9wUxn4g_s2fbEBmlcJRkTJ/s640/whetherman.jpg" width="296" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Whether Man from Norton Juster's "The Phantom Tollbooth"<br />
Illustrated by Jules Feiffer<br />
Retrieved from <a href="https://annaforrester.wordpress.com/category/chapter-books/" target="_blank">annaforrester.wordpress.com</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
It seems like every year, around November 1<sup>st</sup>,
the heavens open up and our stormy season begins. We cool off dramatically, and
by mid-late November, we’ve historically seen our first significant lowland
snowstorms. We are at our stormiest by Thanksgiving, and we slowly calm down from
there, nevertheless remaining pretty stormy right through January. However, by
the time mid-February rolls around, we’ve calmed down significantly, and after
Valentine’s Day, it’s much harder to get snow in the lowlands. All of this begs
the question: why do we have a storm season, and why does it approximately
start and end on these dates?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To understand why we get our storms, you have to understand
the mechanisms that form them. Our storms are midlatitude cyclones, and get
their energy from north-south temperature differences in the Westerlies. Generally, the larger the temperature difference, the stronger the cyclone. As the graphic below shows, mid-latitude cyclones need, among other things, a meridional temperature difference and some wind shear to get started. Once there is a bit of rotation, a cold and warm front begin to appear, with the cold front eventually catching up to the warm front and forming an occluded front before the storm finally dissipates.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gX9R4vKM1IwZ0VBikVPt_B3iRbNkLx54JjuExKFSohCuiz-m5wtdtl9A9OrPsfhmW7H2dqjkUAWHwY4m5uavbP9Ys_LIUKy9PrInxJpOfD3n6hhFZCfGVFdouPI3GJ5AhNXhbpLxEUEE/s1600/wave-cyclone-141570CC8694354CB45.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gX9R4vKM1IwZ0VBikVPt_B3iRbNkLx54JjuExKFSohCuiz-m5wtdtl9A9OrPsfhmW7H2dqjkUAWHwY4m5uavbP9Ys_LIUKy9PrInxJpOfD3n6hhFZCfGVFdouPI3GJ5AhNXhbpLxEUEE/s640/wave-cyclone-141570CC8694354CB45.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://quakeinfo.ucsd.edu/~gabi/sio15/lectures/Lecture18.html" target="_blank">UC San Diego</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The "jet stream", the band of high-altitude winds in the mid-latitudes, is determined by temperature differences throughout the atmosphere which then result in the pressure gradients that drive the jet stream. The stronger the temperature difference, the stronger the jet stream that feeds energy into the storm. The jet stream is typically at its strongest in the Western Pacific where there is a stark difference in temperatures from Siberia to the north and the warm water of the equatorial Western Pacific to the south. Some of the most intense extratropical storms in the world form in the Northwest Pacific. Thankfully, we don't have to deal with these, but Alaska does on occasion!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6K0YJihS1JB2wPXdXRtHr_hlbZGWEt2GsHLh0wsa4IXUQ_gNRdzE91SdIZDkbbROMiHh-w3XpmNL-ZqBpB71TsDbIXdoiFq0bt_4EUFEpXP0d7dj2kEwXmL6B9WoLDqPeHZkRYyujExOK/s1600/jetstream.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6K0YJihS1JB2wPXdXRtHr_hlbZGWEt2GsHLh0wsa4IXUQ_gNRdzE91SdIZDkbbROMiHh-w3XpmNL-ZqBpB71TsDbIXdoiFq0bt_4EUFEpXP0d7dj2kEwXmL6B9WoLDqPeHZkRYyujExOK/s640/jetstream.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">How temperature affects pressure gradients, which in turn affect the strength of the jet stream. The jet stream is the geostrophic wind (parallel to isobars, or lines of constant pressure) around 200-300 mb.<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.ux1.eiu.edu/~cfjps/1400/pressure_wind.html" target="_blank">University of Illinois</a></td></tr>
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During the autumn, the northern hemisphere starts to tilt away from the sun, causing the polar regions to cool off dramatically while the subtropical regions are still relatively warm. This is why November is such a stormy month for us; there is a large temperature difference from north-to-south and thus a strong jet stream that is more often than not pointed directly at the Pacific Northwest. Moreover, some of our biggest storms, such as the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, occur when tropical systems from the Western Pacific actually get sucked up into the westerlies and transition to extratropical storms. As the graph below shows, there are still a fair number of cyclones that occur during the months of November and December in the Western Pacific, but very few occur from January to April.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMr1EIT4MUmm5cUJTvPLF8a9bqPexH80VGknm8fo5TNIolgRCd804_K664FxF1UTxpmp5UVNWisREUD6zHLOhYUZcUYRWe5vozLM-bcLYki31cEcuzoeIH0eDunSbg71EygMkdEo-cNwv0/s1600/seasons3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMr1EIT4MUmm5cUJTvPLF8a9bqPexH80VGknm8fo5TNIolgRCd804_K664FxF1UTxpmp5UVNWisREUD6zHLOhYUZcUYRWe5vozLM-bcLYki31cEcuzoeIH0eDunSbg71EygMkdEo-cNwv0/s640/seasons3.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/strike/text/htc_t2.htm" target="_blank">UCAR MetEd COMET Program</a></td></tr>
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As we go into December and January, the polar regions continue to cool, but the subtropics cool off as well. By late February, the polar regions are starting to warm dramatically while warming is much more modest in the subtropics, leading to a smaller north-south temperature difference and thus a weaker jet stream, with weaker and less frequent storms affecting us here in the Pacific Northwest. This trend continues throughout the summer, with the smallest north-south change in temperature in the northern Hemisphere occurring around late July/early August. After that, the temperature discrepancies start to pick up, and we start to see progressively more and more powerful storms.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmnG0eCvyOnxWGu5Z19VVTJXer6XUbTZ3L_2g5UGLa1xiOtTyXVPfj-TePewGWwcondQ9yd6t7ZhoZ_y86qDVV7ZhFg49B_kTGaNvu4q8WKRCyA8G2EiiNueDq0nhr97-vtT_JRWUxY9qp/s1600/polar_front_summer_winter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmnG0eCvyOnxWGu5Z19VVTJXer6XUbTZ3L_2g5UGLa1xiOtTyXVPfj-TePewGWwcondQ9yd6t7ZhoZ_y86qDVV7ZhFg49B_kTGaNvu4q8WKRCyA8G2EiiNueDq0nhr97-vtT_JRWUxY9qp/s640/polar_front_summer_winter.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jet stream in the summer and winter. As you can see, the jet stream is stronger and further south during the winter due to increased north-south temperature gradients, giving stronger storms and heavier precipitation to the West Coast.<br />
Credit:<a href="http://www.meted.ucar.edu/afwa/climo/intro/media/graphics/polar_front_summer_winter.jpg" target="_blank">UCAR MetEd COMET Program</a></td></tr>
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Even though we are relatively calm in the spring, many other places in the midlatitudes are actually wetter in the spring than the winter. For example, Oklahoma City's dry season is from November to February, with precipitation sharply increasing in the spring and decreasing slightly for the summer months. This is because unlike us, Oklahoma City gets the majority of their precipitation from thunderstorms and squalls. These storms have a tough time forming in winter, but once spring comes around, look out!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAasR06nnVlmct24pb65QIHCHR8BRJcNZl1tkRA5QCcaRSDgXm1o065zxHuGqeJyHNcJPnjbFAnB5S3raXwd7aY46gbz_mC8_6lxi6daJAaTUnuwt2u_BMj2m8NA3USVpi-eR0H-aYIoky/s1600/Tor_alley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAasR06nnVlmct24pb65QIHCHR8BRJcNZl1tkRA5QCcaRSDgXm1o065zxHuGqeJyHNcJPnjbFAnB5S3raXwd7aY46gbz_mC8_6lxi6daJAaTUnuwt2u_BMj2m8NA3USVpi-eR0H-aYIoky/s640/Tor_alley.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/" target="_blank">NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory</a></td></tr>
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While the north/south temperature gradients are not as strong in the spring, this is when the difference in temperature between the surface and aloft is the highest. When there is a large decrease in temperature with height, the atmosphere is very unstable, and there is a ton of potential energy available for thunderstorm formation. Typically, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico comes in at low levels, while hot, dry air from the desert southwest comes in at mid-levels, creating an inversion that initially prevents any clouds from forming. However, this inversion acts as a pressure-cooker of sorts, and as the lower atmosphere heats up during the day, the inversion becomes weaker and weaker until it can no longer contain the hot, moist air at the surface. When the inversion finally buckles and the air starts to rise, it rises incredibly fast and violently and to great heights due to the cold air surrounding it and the fact that it is less dense than the surrounding air. </div>
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Our storm season may be coming to an end, but it won't be long before we'll be talking about severe springtime thunderstorms. Although not every place is blessed with fascinating weather all the time, you'd be hard-pressed to find a time when there's no interesting weather anywhere in the world.</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-43182902216951570072016-02-17T21:25:00.000-08:002016-02-17T21:25:02.350-08:00Snow To Return To The CascadesWednesday, February 17, 2016<br />
6:15 pm<br />
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It was a bad week for the snow-lovers of the Pacific Northwest. Over the past couple days, we've had very moist and relatively mild flow coming into our region from the WSW. The result? Heavy rains on the Olympics and Northern Cascades, with much lighter precipitation in the Seattle area due to rainshadowing by the Olympics. These "atmospheric rivers" are really good for showing how much our topography affects our weather around the region. Take a look at some <i>radar-estimated</i> precipitation totals from the storm and compare them a topographical map of the Pacific Northwest. Notice any similarities?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcbljeBuZWgcw1BjP8MsgyY8-QBwz8hb2OJ4RHFQWpLc7CMbkZqybevINOB_YX5P_9xtojfsyOwmZq883ADA7cCmRsMsfwkjbRxTlZUSoBcvUICsK2BiWPkMcttEIgh7QpCMpXUbmZZ2_R/s1600/ScreenHunter_918+Feb.+15+20.44.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcbljeBuZWgcw1BjP8MsgyY8-QBwz8hb2OJ4RHFQWpLc7CMbkZqybevINOB_YX5P_9xtojfsyOwmZq883ADA7cCmRsMsfwkjbRxTlZUSoBcvUICsK2BiWPkMcttEIgh7QpCMpXUbmZZ2_R/s640/ScreenHunter_918+Feb.+15+20.44.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFuZN0_e6XuozTePrEwdWiXEcSDZvVRfjvWb3rjhmdLN8SSh4JGRULBxweag1m7Q3Y_lTwr2bEruUtCgXPjhKwgKToABlYNEd-nlffjsxMms9zw8wqq7N3E2O1aRRCJPKaQeOCrjKo1imW/s1600/ScreenHunter_921+Feb.+17+18.26.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="53" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFuZN0_e6XuozTePrEwdWiXEcSDZvVRfjvWb3rjhmdLN8SSh4JGRULBxweag1m7Q3Y_lTwr2bEruUtCgXPjhKwgKToABlYNEd-nlffjsxMms9zw8wqq7N3E2O1aRRCJPKaQeOCrjKo1imW/s400/ScreenHunter_921+Feb.+17+18.26.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/" target="_blank">National Weather Service</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjApNfXpiKWYsXBhRTiFzFG9CJzDZdiHdtAHs3wXJyv7VvWKyLbkvVq2GaWkHxWUpqBPJ63rKcRrg5A97bkKDzF8IEJwBoCLNtIvXafvFGTJES00ecoGno3iDWb5nqr4VZ5TBEhF3DTwdSX/s1600/Pacific_NW_topo_map-lg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjApNfXpiKWYsXBhRTiFzFG9CJzDZdiHdtAHs3wXJyv7VvWKyLbkvVq2GaWkHxWUpqBPJ63rKcRrg5A97bkKDzF8IEJwBoCLNtIvXafvFGTJES00ecoGno3iDWb5nqr4VZ5TBEhF3DTwdSX/s640/Pacific_NW_topo_map-lg.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://staff.washington.edu/rel2/geog100-UW/geog100s2-PNW.html" target="_blank">University of Washington</a></td></tr>
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There's clearly more precipitation on windward slopes and less on leeward slopes, with 3-4 inches in some places on the windward slopes of the central and northern Washington Cascades and <i>nothing</i> on the eastern slopes. Amazing! You can even see an increase in precipitation due to the Blue Mountains in Northeast Oregon.</div>
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One more graphic... look how much topography affects annual rainfall around the state. It's just another thing that makes forecasting the weather around here so much fun!</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY1B5yk8aZRwg82I4ax5Rz6itTBK3TxetP8-iqUnc5mZ7dmY3xAj2u0_i_7gU0QxfklSeohABIIox_jPLmWPToM5t8xfxWfHeKutDXHr05IGeCIjzgUxtaDg-aMdqyx6LlvDmpLl1Lgsay/s1600/Fig2.7-lg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY1B5yk8aZRwg82I4ax5Rz6itTBK3TxetP8-iqUnc5mZ7dmY3xAj2u0_i_7gU0QxfklSeohABIIox_jPLmWPToM5t8xfxWfHeKutDXHr05IGeCIjzgUxtaDg-aMdqyx6LlvDmpLl1Lgsay/s640/Fig2.7-lg.jpg" width="469" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: Chris Daly and Mike Halblelb of the Oregon State University PRISM group<br />
Retrieved from <a href="http://staff.washington.edu/rel2/geog100-UW/geog100s2-PNW.html" target="_blank">University of Washington</a></td></tr>
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You can get 200+ inches of precipitation on the highest peaks of the Olympics, but Sequim, on the northeastern part of the Olympic Peninsula, only gets around 16 inches of rain a year - nearly the same amount as Los Angeles. Heck, Sequim is even home to the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opuntia_fragilis" target="_blank">Brittle Prickly Pear</a>" cactus - the only cactus native to Western Washington. You won't find any of those in the Hoh Rainforest!</div>
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The good news for snow-lovers is that more snow is on the way. It's raining at the passes right now, but snow levels, currently at 6,000 feet, will continue to drop as the week goes on. By noon Thursday, the white stuff should finally be falling again at Snoqualmie Pass.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijpvOyZ34j-tm5jSNJWNok8OxqzD8ifgXIgaSacLXO4lBDRp048nEHJCwAgH2avLdfanu8v_JDRPU40wJzZ8wVrZ9dy5BynnipMsyKMKvhbe_gpQ4P5f2Q2wuVgMFdJoUT_b0BUbYl5HR-/s1600/thick.00.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijpvOyZ34j-tm5jSNJWNok8OxqzD8ifgXIgaSacLXO4lBDRp048nEHJCwAgH2avLdfanu8v_JDRPU40wJzZ8wVrZ9dy5BynnipMsyKMKvhbe_gpQ4P5f2Q2wuVgMFdJoUT_b0BUbYl5HR-/s640/thick.00.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 17 Feb 2016<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+2016021800///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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The graphic above shows the "thickness" of the atmosphere between the 1000 and 500 hPa pressure levels. Warm air is less dense, so the higher the thickness, the warmer the air throughout that column. Units are in "dam," which stands for decameters (tens of meters). You can see how although we have relatively low heights associated with a cooler air mass and lower snow levels offshore, the counterclockwise flow around the low is still pumping relatively warm, moist air into our region. As a result, we are seeing warm temperatures and heavy rain in many regions right now.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kWRRiG36NDqYsoBYFv2sAJO44VmUjHPSX-I_ufAhp7iFoT2lKum5dviR9V-2c44CK1h4TRHwtJDkZ3oqX5H2LAcOACNv-Qhwki0D4S2k4WVhIVdLVlLlV0tDPG80z_lcgr3cgxzwj7CZ/s1600/ScreenHunter_924+Feb.+17+20.45.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kWRRiG36NDqYsoBYFv2sAJO44VmUjHPSX-I_ufAhp7iFoT2lKum5dviR9V-2c44CK1h4TRHwtJDkZ3oqX5H2LAcOACNv-Qhwki0D4S2k4WVhIVdLVlLlV0tDPG80z_lcgr3cgxzwj7CZ/s640/ScreenHunter_924+Feb.+17+20.45.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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However, by tomorrow morning, thicknesses have dropped by nearly 150 meters. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxGgm6fRTD2ad9FrXBUmxoMDzLtHcujjtAOIAn-gNycN0ipGpL_PkmOBycJfJwdV_kfVO8-mM3XwL6hiLEPDw_xwXQrdXG0OI68En-kn39QsmuiXiw0_DZhDJORcuqbEAocZdfqqb84gK/s1600/thick.18.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxGgm6fRTD2ad9FrXBUmxoMDzLtHcujjtAOIAn-gNycN0ipGpL_PkmOBycJfJwdV_kfVO8-mM3XwL6hiLEPDw_xwXQrdXG0OI68En-kn39QsmuiXiw0_DZhDJORcuqbEAocZdfqqb84gK/s640/thick.18.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 10:00 am PST, Thu 18 Feb 2016 - 18hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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Now the graphic everybody cares about: 24-hour snow accumulation.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih007yn1hW3beGFm7SNuzz7ASofzN80HDBhQLUxNcpqY74K_s6409MSpA6wL4tGHGITa955MohVM5rj-dCKooYW3O255dMzHu0jzCFCyj2QZKKGk1o5NrL8LfLzL5t4sbEQWN3qYod0eAu/s1600/snow24.24.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih007yn1hW3beGFm7SNuzz7ASofzN80HDBhQLUxNcpqY74K_s6409MSpA6wL4tGHGITa955MohVM5rj-dCKooYW3O255dMzHu0jzCFCyj2QZKKGk1o5NrL8LfLzL5t4sbEQWN3qYod0eAu/s640/snow24.24.0000.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 pm PST, Thu 18 Feb 2016 - 24hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_snow24+2016021800///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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We finally get some snow here, but areas further south get pummeled with the white stuff. The Sierra Nevada gets feet rather than inches. The Sierra Nevada are very tall mountains that rise dramatically from the Central Valley, so they are very efficient at wringing out moisture. If we had the Sierra Nevada and California had the relatively short Cascades, then skiers, farmers, and utility companies here would be in 7th heaven and California would be in a whole lot more trouble than they are now. </div>
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Over the next 24 hours, the focus of the snow shifts north and snow levels plummet below 2,000 feet. </div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 04:00 am PST, Sat 20 Feb 2016 - 60hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_snow24+2016021800///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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Skiing should be fantastic this weekend. Saturday in particular should be spectacular, with snowfall decreasing throughout the day. Another system comes in Sunday afternoon, but once again, this one should bring more snow than rain to the Cascades, at least at all the major passes. </div>
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Hit the slopes this weekend!</div>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-13727328448424308082016-02-14T16:37:00.003-08:002016-02-15T13:56:24.853-08:00Everything You Need To Know About Gravitational WavesThursday, February 11, 2016<br />
8:12 pm<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">According to my mom, I memorized the names of "all the moons of Jupiter" thanks to this book.<br />
Retrieved from <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/78613.Our_Solar_System" target="_blank">www.goodreads.com</a></td></tr>
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Although it has been my most enduring, meteorology was not my first foray into the natural sciences. When I was in preschool, I was obsessed with volcanoes and astronomy, two things I still love today. I clearly remember taking a trip to the "Big Island" of Hawaii when I was in kindergarten with my family and throwing a fit when we went to Kilauea and the "hot lava" that was so vividly portrayed in the video cassettes I religiously watched at home was nowhere to be found. Although I don't remember any of them now, my mom says that I memorized all the moons of Jupiter given in the book above. Seeing as Jupiter has 67 moons, I think she might be exaggerating a bit, but I may have memorized the four Galilean moons (she recalls me memorizing 8 or so).</div>
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I may have been a highly touted intellectual science prospect throughout preschool, but those expectations fell flat when I encountered a more strenuous workload in middle school, and you need look no further than my performance in the calculus-based introductory physics series at the University of Washington to see that I'm a hobbyist at heart, not a scientist. Thankfully, scientists came along and developed the internet, so hobbyists like myself can still entertain ourselves by blogging about things we aspire to comprehend.</div>
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So, as you can imagine, when I heard the news on Thursday that a team of absurdly smart scientists were claiming to have discovered direct evidence of gravitational waves, waves in the space-time fabric of the universe, from two black holes smashing into each other over a billion light years away, I had to enter the blogosphere and give the internet my two cents on it.</div>
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But before I did that, I had to brush up on my knowledge of Einstein's theories of special and general relativity.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3uO9k5kvVUsH8tkg6JSvltXNZJ4OMWnm8kEFpHhPXvlvNex0l1asIeHLZFcVDVhugeP53Cx5qNaDcyqv1miOQjPIwOmNtza7oUoZqnICPRrLX6U1FQ82LOcTCYeelTTWEGPT9454W-qxo/s1600/Einstein_1921_by_F_Schmutzer_-_restoration.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3uO9k5kvVUsH8tkg6JSvltXNZJ4OMWnm8kEFpHhPXvlvNex0l1asIeHLZFcVDVhugeP53Cx5qNaDcyqv1miOQjPIwOmNtza7oUoZqnICPRrLX6U1FQ82LOcTCYeelTTWEGPT9454W-qxo/s640/Einstein_1921_by_F_Schmutzer_-_restoration.jpg" width="483" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Smart guy!<br />
Credit: Ferdinand Schmutzer (retrieved from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein#/media/File:Einstein_1921_by_F_Schmutzer_-_restoration.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</td></tr>
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We are used to thinking of space and time as independent of each other. We imagine that there are three spatial dimensions that describe our world, and there is time, which just 'keeps on going' at the same rate for everybody. Time anchors us. In a crazy world with terrorism, climate change, nuclear proliferation, disease, and reality TV stars storming their way to the Republican nomination, we can all rest easy knowing one thing. At least we all abide by one common clock, right?</div>
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Wrong.</div>
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In 1905, Einstein was a 26-year-old university graduate who was working in a patent office. He enjoyed producing groundbreaking physics work in his spare time, and in 1905, he produced his theory of special relativity. This theory has two parts. First, it says that the laws of physics are identical throughout the universe for any "inertial" (non-accelerating) observer. Second, it says that the speed of light is the same for all observers. These may seem like commonsense, innocuous statements, but they have profound implications. As you will see, while some things are absolute, such as the speed light, other things are <i>relative</i> based on the observer, such as space and time.</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Own graphic, created with Microsoft PowerPoint</td></tr>
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Imagine that you are in a vintage race car traveling 70 miles per hour to the east, and your buddy's jalopy is traveling at 30 mph to the west. In this case, your buddy's car is traveling towards you at 100 mph. This is because YOUR car is not traveling away from you at all - it is traveling at a lowly 0 mph <i>relative</i> to you. Likewise, from your buddy's perspective, his car is not moving at all, but your car is moving towards him at 100 mph. At first, this seems like a paradox: how can something be moving at 0 mph and 100 mph at the same time? Of course, it all makes sense when you take who's driving the car into account. This illustrates the concept of <i>inertial reference frame</i>, where any arbitrary, non-accelerating object can be defined as being stationary while other objects are whizzing all around in every direction. I may think I'm stationary sitting here writing this blog, and I am from my reference frame, but try asking the man on the moon if I'm stationary. Heck, he can only see me for half of the day!</div>
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Weird things happen when you travel at speeds close to the speed of light. Say, for example, that I am flying in a spaceship at the speed of light to the east, and my buddy is flying at the speed of light to the west. It would seem, then, that from my inertial reference frame, my buddy is traveling at two times the speed of light away from me. In the graphic below, 'c' stands for the speed of light, while '2c' stands for twice the speed of light.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8-77dJpPKP9bgHDZcwkNB2TEf67leBNX7mNAIlt4yIGeudQAGAYeBIzkCDg3ebIpTR3UOAgmb30kAqCWeJiZz2PQbf1oGQ8N_PEl64fEgf_h6Xlaop3s_ZSf9ylCvjgsNAQF97h7w8aB/s1600/ScreenHunter_910+Feb.+12+21.38.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8-77dJpPKP9bgHDZcwkNB2TEf67leBNX7mNAIlt4yIGeudQAGAYeBIzkCDg3ebIpTR3UOAgmb30kAqCWeJiZz2PQbf1oGQ8N_PEl64fEgf_h6Xlaop3s_ZSf9ylCvjgsNAQF97h7w8aB/s640/ScreenHunter_910+Feb.+12+21.38.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Own graphic, created with Microsoft PowerPoint</td></tr>
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<b>However, this is not possible. </b>Due to the theory of special relativity, since we are both non-accelerating objects, the same laws of physics apply for us, and the speed of light is the same for us. Nothing can travel faster than the speed of light. Therefore, my buddy is only traveling the speed of light away from me, not twice the speed of light. How can this be?</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFBaE0VnCAqAZoauWtd6mrKhOuPkp13kRVCGrhhv6WgpAECZrP5EMwUpNpvUHqNz823zfsaChdW3NnHRKn03vTS0bdOYKBEY2qJayj2V7Ehj0PjAhvTzH2Ln67_v0C_cOgZdSwtdzi4C7C/s1600/ScreenHunter_911+Feb.+12+21.39.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFBaE0VnCAqAZoauWtd6mrKhOuPkp13kRVCGrhhv6WgpAECZrP5EMwUpNpvUHqNz823zfsaChdW3NnHRKn03vTS0bdOYKBEY2qJayj2V7Ehj0PjAhvTzH2Ln67_v0C_cOgZdSwtdzi4C7C/s640/ScreenHunter_911+Feb.+12+21.39.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Own graphic, created with Microsoft PowerPoint</td></tr>
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In the car example, the speed of my car was completely dependent on reference frame. I could've been going 0 mph or I could have been going 100 mph. If there was a hitchhiker standing on the side of the roadway, he would have said I was going 70 mph. And as it turns out, time, just like speed, position, and so many other things, is relative.</div>
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If I'm traveling at light speed away from my buddy and he doesn't appear to be going anywhere, then time is going normally for me, but no time has passed for him. If time was going for him, he would be moving!</div>
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<b>And because the speed of light is equal to length divided by time, if time is relative, it turns out that length is too</b>! If time passes more slowly for other objects flying by the observer than the observer himself in <i>his inertial reference frame</i>, then the length of those objects the observer sees must contract in order to satisfy the relationship between time, length, and the speed of light. For example, if I'm flying by a spaceship at 3/5ths the speed of light, for me, the spaceship is only 4/5ths as long as it is in its own reference frame, and for every second that has passed on the spaceship, 1.25 seconds have passed for me. These concepts are called <i>length contraction</i> and <i>time dilation</i>, respectively, and they are not intuitive at all. You can learn more about them <a href="http://newt.phys.unsw.edu.au/einsteinlight/jw/module4_time_dilation.htm" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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There are other consequences of special relativity, a major one being that events that may appear simultaneous to one observer may not appear simultaneous to another observer. Also, weird stuff happens when you are accelerating (i.e. not in an inertial reference frame). It's all incredibly confusing and counter-intuitive.</div>
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<b>But what all of this stuff means is that space and time are not separate entities. They are intrinsically woven together, and we call this entity space-time</b>.That's right: in our overly chaotic world, space and even time are relative to the observer. Thankfully, these effects only become noticeable when traveling at "relativistic" speeds... i.e., speeds approaching the speed of light. Otherwise, I imagine everyday communication would be quite difficult!</div>
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For example, let's imagine that the aforementioned rockets can go at all speeds. The dashed line here represents the relative speed of one rocket from another (in terms of its velocity divided by the speed of light) if we just take the sum of the parts like we did with the cars. The blue line shows the relative speed if we take special relativity into account, like we did with the rockets. There isn't much of a difference until after v/c=.1, meaning that the velocity (v) is 1/10th the speed of light. One tenth the speed of light is 66,960,000 miles per hour! <b>So yes, relativity affects us all, but the effects are so small that it is impossible for us to notice them</b>. Still it's fascinating to know that any movement has an effect on time and length from your reference frame.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizzD5l_iVz-xeg-niRPBxsMKLZH-I3AiI2NmJyHJPFtrvRsjEXZO-5fmTFlX2UOFTBMM0ir6MqVTZxNtCTcdMekis5N-pK5CBv9p6Rj_d-O1oG3DXp3V4HIjTAiy2pi3aLHq2DxrkMf-wo/s1600/4IRzD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="521" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizzD5l_iVz-xeg-niRPBxsMKLZH-I3AiI2NmJyHJPFtrvRsjEXZO-5fmTFlX2UOFTBMM0ir6MqVTZxNtCTcdMekis5N-pK5CBv9p6Rj_d-O1oG3DXp3V4HIjTAiy2pi3aLHq2DxrkMf-wo/s640/4IRzD.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/185116/what-speeds-are-fast-enough-for-one-to-need-the-relativistic-velocity-addition" target="_blank">physics.stackexchange.com/</a></td></tr>
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Whew! If you made it through that, then you'll have no problem getting through the rest of this blog.</div>
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Obviously, 1905 was a good year for Einstein. In addition to his theory of special relativity, he published revolutionary papers on Brownian motion, the photoelectric effect, and mass-energy equivalence (E=mc<sup>2</sup>). However, his best work was yet to come.</div>
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Einstein liked his theory of special relativity, but he wasn't content with it. Special relativity was only concerned with inertial reference frames, and Einstein wanted to make a theory that was compatible with all reference frames. In other words, he sought to include acceleration into his theory. He began his quest for a new, more generalized theory in 1907, and after eight years of blood, sweat, and tears, he published his theory of <i>general </i>relativity, a theory which has served as one of the pillars of modern physics ever since.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBb1NrIQoKNULA7n0fRWUnbs0LN7ckUA6dPX5yVk-YCavlNBgk_ibD68o2gDK_4-Ww8YwfLBZ-u4NdWpSFTX9Bs1d7cNlh-DYrEFs6Te6fcRRfsCOy42qMorr8nthe_C3fjimi8TziJbJA/s1600/Spacetime_curvature.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBb1NrIQoKNULA7n0fRWUnbs0LN7ckUA6dPX5yVk-YCavlNBgk_ibD68o2gDK_4-Ww8YwfLBZ-u4NdWpSFTX9Bs1d7cNlh-DYrEFs6Te6fcRRfsCOy42qMorr8nthe_C3fjimi8TziJbJA/s640/Spacetime_curvature.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The mass of the Earth bending space-time around it, creating gravity<br />
Retrieved from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_relativity#/media/File:Spacetime_curvature.png" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a></td></tr>
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In his law of universal gravitation, Isaac Newton stated that any two objects in the universe attract each other, and that attraction is due to the intrinsic mass of the objects. He didn't know <i>why</i> they attracted each other, but he just knew that they did, and that the more massive the object and the closer the object was to neighboring objects, the stronger the attraction was.</div>
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When coming up with his theory of general relativity, Einstein actually apologized to Newton in his notebook, writing "Newton, forgive me. You found the only way which, in your age, was just about possible for a man of highest thought and creative power." In his theory, Einstein finally had an explanation for <i>why</i> gravity existed. In Einstein's theory of general relativity, gravity is not simply an innate force between two objects. Instead, gravity is a consequence of the influence of mass on space-time. Mass, he proposed, curves space-time, and this curvature is felt as the "force" of gravity.</div>
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Take a look at the diagram of the Earth above. Due to its mass, it bends space-time, with the most bend occurring closest to the Earth. Now, imagine that you have a ball rolling on the space-time surface. It will roll towards the Earth, and will roll fastest when it is closest to the Earth, where the slope of space-time - and therefore, the force of gravity - is the steepest/strongest. Of course, this ball, which has mass, will also bend space-time. Technically, this bend extends throughout the entire universe, but the effect of the Earth's mass on the curvature of space-time is negligible once you get out of our solar system, so it's <i>really </i>negligible in galaxies billions of light-years away.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7JsMeJPybofBnFup4LuNLbgDlVuUmnlMfoV_ft40xOSfZ4yNrmbQ-q5wLxbHRnLKJOzUlFu7-nvjNCHicKpob1MHNWqvgtLvN1sGvJ11o3YU9T-Nq6xLU7VF9nGPE2nEavhRbcrHFKWk/s1600/st_diagram.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7JsMeJPybofBnFup4LuNLbgDlVuUmnlMfoV_ft40xOSfZ4yNrmbQ-q5wLxbHRnLKJOzUlFu7-nvjNCHicKpob1MHNWqvgtLvN1sGvJ11o3YU9T-Nq6xLU7VF9nGPE2nEavhRbcrHFKWk/s640/st_diagram.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://pics-about-space.com/black-hole-diagram-hawking?p=1" target="_blank">pics-about-space.com</a></td></tr>
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The fact that mass bends space-time has some important implications, with two of the most important being the theorized existence of black holes and gravitational waves. Black holes are regions where the curvature in space-time, and by association, the gravitational force, is so drastic that nothing, not even light, can escape past a certain point, known as the event horizon. In fact, all the mass of the black hole is located at the "singularity," which has no volume, infinite density, and infinite space-time curvature. Black holes had been theorized and indirectly observed but never observed directly until September 2015. After a lengthy, arduous process of research and verification, these findings were announced to the world on Thursday, February 11, 2016.</div>
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However, the bigger story has been <i>how</i> we obtained direct evidence of the existence of black holes. And we did that by the first ever direct observation of gravitational waves.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4oBwZ9ku7UNtJgTc0I6_nV0y2LKtoVJrsBhezkBRZXej02jfYXWZ933qf6EexCHn6sYTuGnECrKiXIP7BOxbuVBo4zazjGUtsOHq5po_Eyy8TDq39KHEsXnREdDg6BT3pq8LKp9sGJ3lN/s1600/2-black-holes-gravitational-waves.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4oBwZ9ku7UNtJgTc0I6_nV0y2LKtoVJrsBhezkBRZXej02jfYXWZ933qf6EexCHn6sYTuGnECrKiXIP7BOxbuVBo4zazjGUtsOHq5po_Eyy8TDq39KHEsXnREdDg6BT3pq8LKp9sGJ3lN/s640/2-black-holes-gravitational-waves.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gravitational waves produced by two black holes orbiting each other<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.space.com/27510-gravitational-wave-detection-method.html" target="_blank">NASA</a> (retrieved from <a href="http://www.space.com/27510-gravitational-wave-detection-method.html" target="_blank">www.space.com</a>)</td></tr>
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Gravitational waves are undulations in space-time that propagate as waves from a given source. Although mass curves space-time, the curve stays centered on that specific mass. With gravitational waves, these curves propagate throughout the universe, far away from the center of mass from which they are originating.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZWnRVyWm2oLWBz4YbJF7tr1mqjtBaa1GO35iYKZgOjeUwBqy_2W-0b8906y5IjJQKzU_rY96EpWdNGVhwpTDMg09hoHJbnH-W8auCuTZHZjz4y1pU4ohOypRhcBpT5PYDMiXD6jEghYa/s1600/Sin_drawing_process.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZWnRVyWm2oLWBz4YbJF7tr1mqjtBaa1GO35iYKZgOjeUwBqy_2W-0b8906y5IjJQKzU_rY96EpWdNGVhwpTDMg09hoHJbnH-W8auCuTZHZjz4y1pU4ohOypRhcBpT5PYDMiXD6jEghYa/s640/Sin_drawing_process.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sin_drawing_process.gif" target="_blank">Malter</a><br />
Retrieved from <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sin_drawing_process.gif" target="_blank">Wikimedia Commons</a></td></tr>
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Gravitational waves are sinusoidal, meaning they oscillate smoothly according to the y-coordinate of a rhythmic trace of a circle. These waves, called "sine" waves, are everywhere. Light waves, sound waves, and even water waves are sinusoidal. For example, the "A" below is a sine wave.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5HUSBE61wE6cd_DnfF6AKK0NakbzyWqdvhKLmhwkd5nG6FOXecYZSqjaoWN-uGbJugFjkBIosq1KRFfTs_3aX8KTaF_32NYMcUWx2WJK4cCr0pHqCanmwThaMsoFh8I-LF06AcokrrE_d/s1600/a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5HUSBE61wE6cd_DnfF6AKK0NakbzyWqdvhKLmhwkd5nG6FOXecYZSqjaoWN-uGbJugFjkBIosq1KRFfTs_3aX8KTaF_32NYMcUWx2WJK4cCr0pHqCanmwThaMsoFh8I-LF06AcokrrE_d/s640/a.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">Hear the sound of this wave <a href="http://www.math.umn.edu/~rogness/math1155/soundwaves/a.wav" target="_blank">here</a><br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.math.umn.edu/~rogness/math1155/soundwaves/" target="_blank">University of Minnesota</a></td></tr>
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Music is made of a whole bunch of sine waves, and although it doesn't look as neat, it sounds a lot better. Here is a "waveform analysis" I made of Van Halen's "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OlAx4Dok38" target="_blank">Hot For Teacher</a>."</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs-KC5e7sQTEWfwZkmja3EYUEMVppwkxCxVjEad8EA1p5vWgm_qPNBEFggyvKhuxky9bkh071Var7O8YhxTq2kO47C4W5jKWuu1ap2Cavzib9adxnosbiz9u3etrHcPhT2GIVdpTQGTfF6/s1600/ScreenHunter_914+Feb.+13+13.34.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs-KC5e7sQTEWfwZkmja3EYUEMVppwkxCxVjEad8EA1p5vWgm_qPNBEFggyvKhuxky9bkh071Var7O8YhxTq2kO47C4W5jKWuu1ap2Cavzib9adxnosbiz9u3etrHcPhT2GIVdpTQGTfF6/s640/ScreenHunter_914+Feb.+13+13.34.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Created with <a href="http://www.sigview.com/" target="_blank">Sigview Spectrum Analyzer</a></td></tr>
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Gravitational waves, by bending space and time, actually move stuff in very specific patterns. I found a handy collection of animated gifs online at <a href="http://www.universetoday.com/127255/gravitational-waves-101/" target="_blank">Universe Today</a>, but these were all originally retrieved from <a href="http://www.einstein-online.info/spotlights/gw_waves" target="_blank">Einstein Online</a>, a fantastic resource for laypeople who want to learn about relativity and all things Einstein. I heavily used Einstein Online when writing this blog!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-aOm1O6sCfMqIHbU4G8cSPvA9tFvTwkuqL979QmaPD5Mwds-UXiynKzFVLinwyCEcmnZMJWyHfR1fvHDcb2of829c8g2SxguvnNoM0R0omCVUQEM86CwaPtmASgftsJEN6DXLhRlUMEOV/s1600/gw-waves-single.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="633" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-aOm1O6sCfMqIHbU4G8cSPvA9tFvTwkuqL979QmaPD5Mwds-UXiynKzFVLinwyCEcmnZMJWyHfR1fvHDcb2of829c8g2SxguvnNoM0R0omCVUQEM86CwaPtmASgftsJEN6DXLhRlUMEOV/s640/gw-waves-single.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Let's imagine that we have a bunch of red dots laid out in a circular fashion. A gravitational wave, when passing perpendicular to this circle of dots (into the screen), would cause them to stretch and contract in a rhythmic fashion. Check it out!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpAwX1_WjNVFMYflQd415eGWe9HMdxiM260os5YWK9kLs06y6YsvCpbuoIcvdL8QdvdCaiW1-1685ZKu6DfomnfQC3UBEe3eQrOJIfRPrmLx7VsBVN6iE4XktPlHlD9fuPcdVmziRXdQgA/s1600/gw-waves-single+%25281%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="633" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpAwX1_WjNVFMYflQd415eGWe9HMdxiM260os5YWK9kLs06y6YsvCpbuoIcvdL8QdvdCaiW1-1685ZKu6DfomnfQC3UBEe3eQrOJIfRPrmLx7VsBVN6iE4XktPlHlD9fuPcdVmziRXdQgA/s640/gw-waves-single+%25281%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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Insane, right? And remember, it's stretching and contracting time, too.</div>
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Now, let's extend this to the third dimension. Instead of having one circle, we'll stack a whole bunch of them together to make a cylinder. Also, we'll connect the dots with some <i>imaginary </i>blue lines just so it is easier to see how the wave propagates through the cylinder.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCmDx5wl2JKPN_TO7DiLgZPqrSlir_MZNVQR-Gq8-Q78uUsezx1-sxpkLks-vEtXk_pphgLVYQYxcMGfZLU69-QNwYqJ3YqCPZgE8yHLbNwI42NQpelrYb0vrvYyWVXtoWDUZf7Ipqjo7Z/s1600/gw-cylinder.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCmDx5wl2JKPN_TO7DiLgZPqrSlir_MZNVQR-Gq8-Q78uUsezx1-sxpkLks-vEtXk_pphgLVYQYxcMGfZLU69-QNwYqJ3YqCPZgE8yHLbNwI42NQpelrYb0vrvYyWVXtoWDUZf7Ipqjo7Z/s640/gw-cylinder.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Here is the view of the wave coming perpendicular to the ends of the cylinder. Trippy!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKMqmsXwoIEkXsYp6rXOTNP8c3BY4tKjJC7LP2iW1b3UY2XNgpQm8SiRlurTB_TdTNJGzBnVjLayr16xdgDa18faxcaO0G6cSA69WF7VnM0s523nPmvdrf31DT3eCVeDrw7Wzq2joj0tMl/s1600/gw-waves-wave-1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKMqmsXwoIEkXsYp6rXOTNP8c3BY4tKjJC7LP2iW1b3UY2XNgpQm8SiRlurTB_TdTNJGzBnVjLayr16xdgDa18faxcaO0G6cSA69WF7VnM0s523nPmvdrf31DT3eCVeDrw7Wzq2joj0tMl/s640/gw-waves-wave-1.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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And here's a side view. You can really see the sinusoidal nature of the wave.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU1R23HohjH6DTY14SLw4sfz5dDCtZzI0UCIUCgSLLgbhgJDOQgI3l1rORAE3MgayiBJyxx4CxS0atnThVKPkDvT63wgDEOa-H-po8JR4B7EKQLZN34duL1ecyB6oa66hNdLgobBpj19-K/s1600/gw-waves-side.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU1R23HohjH6DTY14SLw4sfz5dDCtZzI0UCIUCgSLLgbhgJDOQgI3l1rORAE3MgayiBJyxx4CxS0atnThVKPkDvT63wgDEOa-H-po8JR4B7EKQLZN34duL1ecyB6oa66hNdLgobBpj19-K/s640/gw-waves-side.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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There are many different types of gravitational waves. The one above is a "linearly polarized" gravity wave. There are other polarizations, such as circular and elliptical polarization, and the polarization has to do with the electromagnetic nature of the wave. Additionally, these waves occur at a vast variety of frequencies corresponding to the objects that produced the waves and how far the waves have traveled. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoi3TCnahrGsvRjvZOLarFRRMcZlsKTPK_An2P6t8Jc8PRSEP_vYt0oXqcbAjaIuGFr3Ovmf4rbLdVdkBrX0UsmalevycmVDAN0EtyjgzVV5qjJPUReSOGG946QW3q7oH8D_4okG-zV4fW/s1600/faq-gw-spectrum.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoi3TCnahrGsvRjvZOLarFRRMcZlsKTPK_An2P6t8Jc8PRSEP_vYt0oXqcbAjaIuGFr3Ovmf4rbLdVdkBrX0UsmalevycmVDAN0EtyjgzVV5qjJPUReSOGG946QW3q7oH8D_4okG-zV4fW/s640/faq-gw-spectrum.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.ligo.org/science/faq.php" target="_blank">LIGO Scientific Collaboration</a></td></tr>
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So, gravitational waves move temporarily distort time and space for certain regions before they continue their journey onward throughout the rest of the universe. But how the heck do we measure these things?</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiax5WGZeXQNQ08KhyphenhyphenDTfHeaVHxfOwIEVDHd88UfRWqSrLWp02HTJx8VzwqQYMxjuODZEVzyOF1ObAEEH9qf3RswfSBjV4W3sQyGB9PX_KKMif17Fw1dh0AgCYAxTuh5fhA69XSrppJoebJ/s1600/experimental-proving-ground-main.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiax5WGZeXQNQ08KhyphenhyphenDTfHeaVHxfOwIEVDHd88UfRWqSrLWp02HTJx8VzwqQYMxjuODZEVzyOF1ObAEEH9qf3RswfSBjV4W3sQyGB9PX_KKMif17Fw1dh0AgCYAxTuh5fhA69XSrppJoebJ/s640/experimental-proving-ground-main.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I hope nobody was in that lookout!<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/en/dynamic-article.page?doc=drdc-s-experimental-proving-ground-supports-caf-allied-readiness/i6mizy83" target="_blank">Defense Research and Development Canada</a></td></tr>
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As we saw, the gravitational waves moving through something distort its shape. However, there are lots of waves that can move through things and distort their shapes. Seismic waves distort the shape of the ground. Water waves distort the shape of the water. Shock waves, such as the one you see emanating from the explosion above, can set off car alarms, bring down buildings, and scare the living crap out of your dog. Therefore, how did these scientists deduce that the waves they observed were of the gravitational variety?</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFse-I1DRSBX_96VEuFbGTeuf6nPqFiXh2681ycgjux2RZgTkzRVYL3ZsBNyLMjqR7XTCJHr9QJgqWkxyW6WTwCyCiE0tGhh0Rnju0rrsFQNxrAkDsBNXU5FtC3siQ8ZGKSNnJb2vwJe0x/s1600/LIGO_control.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFse-I1DRSBX_96VEuFbGTeuf6nPqFiXh2681ycgjux2RZgTkzRVYL3ZsBNyLMjqR7XTCJHr9QJgqWkxyW6WTwCyCiE0tGhh0Rnju0rrsFQNxrAkDsBNXU5FtC3siQ8ZGKSNnJb2vwJe0x/s640/LIGO_control.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The LIGO Control Room in Hanford, Washington<br />
Credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIGO#/media/File:LIGO_control.jpg" target="_blank">Tobin Fricke</a></td></tr>
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Enter LIGO, which stands for the "Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory." LIGO is primarily funded by the National Science Foundation and draws scientists from all around the world. It was originally founded in 1992 by a group of scientists from MIT and Caltech, and began operations in 2002. Between 2002 and 2010, it failed to discover any gravitational waves, and was subsequently shut down for enhancements, finally coming back online in February of 2015.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfKCgqRtGivfPngI5EQbTmqvKrKB3iC7rq6bjwbkGKurgrsrMxFlxw0fm_fdD4RK_nqPDNOSRtSrvgpbKcsGiGwWsiV7s8uey7QzpnmBfObb717-YOEIL1v4hhBYlZCtrSFB5mb2Qi_os9/s1600/faq-lho-llo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfKCgqRtGivfPngI5EQbTmqvKrKB3iC7rq6bjwbkGKurgrsrMxFlxw0fm_fdD4RK_nqPDNOSRtSrvgpbKcsGiGwWsiV7s8uey7QzpnmBfObb717-YOEIL1v4hhBYlZCtrSFB5mb2Qi_os9/s640/faq-lho-llo.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ligo Hanford (left) and Ligo Livingston (right)<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.ligo.org/science/faq.php" target="_blank">LIGO Scientific Collaboration</a></td></tr>
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LIGO consists of two giant L-shaped observatories, one in Hanford, Washington, and one in Livingston, Louisiana, with each "arm" being 4 kilometers long. As the LIGO acronym suggests, these observatories are "Laser Interferometers," meaning they split a laser beam and see how the two laser beams interfere with each other. The beams are calibrated so that, under normal conditions, there will be perfect "destructive interference," which is where the light beams (which are sine waves) are perfectly opposite each other so that adding them together creates a straight line and thus a complete absence of light.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGFcPQYVhQJEwK0FJVagD-1wPjhaRYJeyKQOarubFGkUNKYP1PRIEjmREUSzXR0_FPpt5IgiNCOZgNaJzWXiqcshQinCtIsPjItcDMsjXJbAg2ojvCBzrOwg5tp02RdeVEqF9uk1TrlDzW/s1600/faq-ifo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGFcPQYVhQJEwK0FJVagD-1wPjhaRYJeyKQOarubFGkUNKYP1PRIEjmREUSzXR0_FPpt5IgiNCOZgNaJzWXiqcshQinCtIsPjItcDMsjXJbAg2ojvCBzrOwg5tp02RdeVEqF9uk1TrlDzW/s640/faq-ifo.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LIGO interferometer design. Credit: <a href="http://www.ligo.org/science/faq.php" target="_blank">LIGO Scientific Collaboration</a></td></tr>
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When a gravitational wave comes, space-time is distorted, and as such, the arms of the observatory lengthen and contract rhythmically, with one arm lengthening as the other contracts and vice versa. Due to this changing length, the laser beams no longer perfectly cancel each other out, and light shines through.</div>
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The change in arm length is on the small side - typical changes are on the order of 1/10,000th the width of a proton! Incredibly, the interferometers are sensitive enough to measure this change. I don't know how they do it. To determine whether the readings were due to gravitational waves and not - say - a 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, scientists are on the lookout for specific patterns that suggest the passing of a gravitational wave. Here are their exact measurements from the gravitational wave everybody is talking about.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqf5jbIqz3W706DigtuqBVhzMjLC8nvBtofhhUrFOKj4-OfZKLU8UCqJBlYLNdVEdd3fJdKm1IihPMhL55WPy3iAiTcjxIiB5rxTGI6zX1LAYz5nxHNqFdgLpolJFSU4lEWrvlN_H_7cnk/s1600/LIGO_measurement_of_gravitational_waves.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="515" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqf5jbIqz3W706DigtuqBVhzMjLC8nvBtofhhUrFOKj4-OfZKLU8UCqJBlYLNdVEdd3fJdKm1IihPMhL55WPy3iAiTcjxIiB5rxTGI6zX1LAYz5nxHNqFdgLpolJFSU4lEWrvlN_H_7cnk/s640/LIGO_measurement_of_gravitational_waves.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://journals.aps.org/prl/pdf/10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.061102" target="_blank">Abbott <i>et al. </i> (2016)</a></td></tr>
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Gravitational waves are made by extremely violent events in the universe, and these gravitational waves were theorized to have been created by the collision of two black holes, one 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times as massive. They circled and approached each other at half the speed of light and eventually collided to make a single black hole 62 times as massive as the sun. Three solar masses were transformed into energy (remember E=mc<sup>2</sup>?), and 50 times as much power as the output of all stars in the universe was sent radiating into the space at the speed of light. </div>
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1.3 billion years later, on September 14, 2015, scientists found the specific pattern they were looking for, and the fact that it occurred at both the Hanford and Livingston observatories at almost exactly the same time proved that it was not simply a local disturbance. The signal only lasted for 20 milliseconds and only moved the LIGO mirrors four thousandths of the diameter of a proton, but they had finally captured direct evidence of both black holes and gravitational waves. Although gravitational waves are not sound waves, the frequency of these waves is a frequency that our ear can detect, so by converting the gravitational waves to sound waves, we can hear the sounds of these two black holes colliding. Listen to them <a href="http://www.sciencealert.com/watch-this-is-what-gravitational-waves-sound-like" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
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I'm not an astrophysicist, but what from what I've read, the discovery of these waves is one of the most important astronomical discoveries of all-time. According to Abhay Ashtekar, a physics theorist at Penn State, "it's really comparable only to Galileo taking up the telescope and looking at the planets. Our understanding of the heavens changed dramatically." I think a good comparison is to the discovery of radio waves 130 years ago by Heinrich Hertz. Since then, radio waves have completely changed our way of life. </div>
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So far, the vast majority of our observations of the universe have come from electromagnetic radiation. Radio waves, infrared waves, visible light, x-rays, gamma rays... you get the idea. However, not everything in the universe emits electromagnetic radiation. Black holes don't... that's why they are called black holes! We would be able to see dark matter and dark energy. But that's not what I'm most excited about.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAa51erMJq-HQYp9Q6rSuNgjxhrNj3_3HrSf1Hj0Uo8TwFyhv-LGHSLYwjRqA-_LB87n4xFm93AZZWY2ovd_y6UZZOIVJWVI7D71DDN7KryVED0HxvwcX8jY6KDSp7oBzHpaO17D5o9Y4m/s1600/CMB_Timeline300_no_WMAP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="409" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAa51erMJq-HQYp9Q6rSuNgjxhrNj3_3HrSf1Hj0Uo8TwFyhv-LGHSLYwjRqA-_LB87n4xFm93AZZWY2ovd_y6UZZOIVJWVI7D71DDN7KryVED0HxvwcX8jY6KDSp7oBzHpaO17D5o9Y4m/s640/CMB_Timeline300_no_WMAP.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/media/060915/index.html" target="_blank">NASA</a></td></tr>
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According to the big bang theory, the very early universe was opaque to electromagnetic radiation, and we cannot see further back than 380,000 years after the big bang. However, it was not opaque to gravitational waves, meaning that if we get a clear enough view, we should actually be able to see the big bang itself. We'll go all the way back to the very beginning of time: the "singularity," where all of the matter in the universe was contained in an infinitely small, infinitely dense, and unimaginably hot point. Or we'll discover that the Big Bang didn't happen at all. However, the existence of gravitational waves adds credence to the big bang theory.</div>
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"Imagination is more important than knowledge," Einstein once said. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand." I can only imagine what we'll discover next!</div>
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<b>Bibliography:</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Abbott, B. P. <i>et al.</i> (2016). Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger. Physics Review Letters, 116(061102). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.061102</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Adams, K. S. (n.d.). High Energy Groove: X-Ray Binary. Retrieved February 12, 2016, from http://heasarc.nasa.gov/docs/xte/outreach/HEG/bhm/black_hole_mass.html</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Albert Einstein. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Choi, C. Q. (2014, October 24). Einstein's Gravity Waves Could Be Found with New Method. Retrieved February 12, 2016, from http://www.space.com/27510-gravitational-wave-detection-method.html</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Elementary Einstein. (n.d.). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www.einstein-online.info/elementary</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Fowler, M. (n.d.). Special Relativity: What Time is it? Retrieved February 11, 2016, from http://galileoandeinstein.physics.virginia.edu/lectures/srelwhat.html</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">General Relativity. (2016, February 12). Retrieved February 12, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_relativity</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">LIGO. (2016, February 13). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIGO</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Nave, C. R. (n.d.). Time Dilation/Length Contraction. Retrieved February 11, 2016, from http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/relativ/tdil.html</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Norton, J. D. (2015, January 14). Special Relativity Basics - Relativity of Simutaneity. Retrieved February 11, 2016, from http://www.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/teaching/HPS_0410/chapters/Special_relativity_rel_sim/</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Polarization (Waves). (2016, February 13). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polarization_(waves)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Radford, T. (2016, February 11). Gravitational waves: Breakthrough discovery after a century of expectation. Retrieved February 11, 2016, from https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/feb/11/gravitational-waves-discovery-hailed-as-breakthrough-of-the-century</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Rogness, J. (n.d.). Trigonometry in Nature - Sinusoidal Waves as Sound. Retrieved February 12, 2016, from http://www.math.umn.edu/~rogness/math1155/soundwaves/</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Special Relativity. (2016, February 2). Retrieved February 11, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Spotlights on relativity. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www.einstein-online.info/spotlights</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Timeline of the Universe. (2012, December 21). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/media/060915/index.html</span></div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-39470211596145718582016-02-11T11:33:00.003-08:002016-02-11T11:34:57.128-08:00Did El Niño Come? It Depends Who You Ask.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;">Wednesday, February 10, 2016</span></div>
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11:14 am</div>
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Earlier this week, a <i>massive</i> ridge of high pressure settled over the West Coast, giving us clear skies, light winds, and extremely warm temperatures, especially if you got above the humongous inversion that was insulating many lowland regions from the extreme warmth. Many places were extraordinarily warm; Quillayute on the coast hit 70 degrees on Monday and 73 on Tuesday (their highest average summertime high is 69), and on Monday at Mt. Rainier, Paradise Ranger Station at 5,400 feet and Camp Muir at 10,110 feet hit 71 and 48 degrees, respectively. North Bend on the Oregon Coast hit 82 degrees, the highest temperature ever recorded on the Oregon Coast in February, and temperatures at the 850 hPa level of the atmosphere (around a mile above sea level) around our area were the highest on record for any January, February, or March day on record. That's impressive.</div>
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All things considered, this was a very short stretch of summer-like weather, but nevertheless, many media outlets, particularly ones in Southern California, immediately published stories seemingly questioning the legitimacy of our current "Godzilla" El Niño. Are these suspicions well-founded, or is it just a bunch of bunkum and balderdash?</div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL3BnYgiB43CzSHZ5lhN7nEOeN2YrCmyr_c-TsaxpAIrYtV4eTArpbS8JRULkJVO9FzpBejCfxHeVZqSuTxqSwEeCV5ROqc9IJBjX3Z3Ra5el74_xUH-zXti_N6EFVNgRSKg_0KooDLefH/s1600/ScreenHunter_894+Feb.+10+10.30.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="85" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL3BnYgiB43CzSHZ5lhN7nEOeN2YrCmyr_c-TsaxpAIrYtV4eTArpbS8JRULkJVO9FzpBejCfxHeVZqSuTxqSwEeCV5ROqc9IJBjX3Z3Ra5el74_xUH-zXti_N6EFVNgRSKg_0KooDLefH/s320/ScreenHunter_894+Feb.+10+10.30.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimdalrympleii/el-ni-nope#.qoyZboKL4" target="_blank">BuzzFeed</a></td></tr>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOUe6U9hGzrSyJhYLNNh9v6dKs17YGRRPjkBOT-PPm-kUTHX0MT3FUpoT_ygh6HIlK3cSzdfNvzqVe2IoOuE3LbiDHgHZoMc7bDXZRYG7s40g1q9kNArz6u1chnbNjnTiIMrEwJ3kYQHS8/s1600/ScreenHunter_898+Feb.+10+16.46.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="93" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOUe6U9hGzrSyJhYLNNh9v6dKs17YGRRPjkBOT-PPm-kUTHX0MT3FUpoT_ygh6HIlK3cSzdfNvzqVe2IoOuE3LbiDHgHZoMc7bDXZRYG7s40g1q9kNArz6u1chnbNjnTiIMrEwJ3kYQHS8/s320/ScreenHunter_898+Feb.+10+16.46.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/10/90-in-february-this-is-not-what-california-was-expecting-from-a-super-el-nino/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a></td></tr>
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Like so many other things in life, it depends who you ask. If you ask somebody from Los Angeles, particularly somebody who lived through the 1997-1998 El Niño, they may say that El Niño never came and that all of the forecasters were completely wrong. October, November, and December were all drier than normal for most regions of SoCal, and January was only <i>slightly </i>wetter than normal for some areas. February 1998 broke all-time monthly precipitation records throughout the region, and that does not look likely this year for anywhere on the West Coast.</div>
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Meanwhile, Northern California has gotten plenty of precipitation, and the Sierra and Intermountain West have a healthy snowpack. Some reservoirs are now <i>above average</i> for this time of the year, which is truly amazing considering all the talk about California being in their <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062433/abstract" target="_blank">most significant drought in the past 1200 years</a>. On the flipside, seasonal predictions were going for drier and much warmer than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest, and that simply hasn't happened.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiolqNoScOMpswk0Hf0HWSrav6alQ41DVGX7UpWkIPuICe6mEa4wF2BPz7SERt-jLaWL-vqCuq_ckl7jNloy5Yyz73jHnnfmE8ScegWiTYYjRT0_E9RMQVvOnKCU7xiN1YTxsYhiEmzyvku/s1600/ScreenHunter_899+Feb.+10+19.16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiolqNoScOMpswk0Hf0HWSrav6alQ41DVGX7UpWkIPuICe6mEa4wF2BPz7SERt-jLaWL-vqCuq_ckl7jNloy5Yyz73jHnnfmE8ScegWiTYYjRT0_E9RMQVvOnKCU7xiN1YTxsYhiEmzyvku/s400/ScreenHunter_899+Feb.+10+19.16.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/llarc.php" target="_blank">Climate Prediction Center</a></td></tr>
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This is what the Climate Prediction Center was predicting for the December/January/February period for the U.S. Drier and warmer north, and wetter south. Looking at the past three months, this hasn't necessarily been the case, at least for the Western U.S.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hyphenhyphenhzkTsOr81DTmpTDp7vrsTQUtPlaImGdIXXpaEd-LKkxQBazr8VaY6ioW0N4Yo2pZNekBA9EvPI3dqh7Z8WbNRG-qdrMJr81ViIJW668UycAXLOBYGuQX-VP1biG6EHPXUYAHZH623b/s1600/anomimageprecip90.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hyphenhyphenhzkTsOr81DTmpTDp7vrsTQUtPlaImGdIXXpaEd-LKkxQBazr8VaY6ioW0N4Yo2pZNekBA9EvPI3dqh7Z8WbNRG-qdrMJr81ViIJW668UycAXLOBYGuQX-VP1biG6EHPXUYAHZH623b/s400/anomimageprecip90.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXdFrquIHIUFrYWU8nT5hpVcLy5-XNnAjQpqp0o4tfFUo2UmCTIcTFA9OjbF68wPMKquag0h5zHxCBKj7VkVmhvbAmD3mH2BzyzYn1DbD7dpfILEaDInUAWQE7M-q013QQLGFhoPwvYEV1/s1600/anomimage+%25281%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXdFrquIHIUFrYWU8nT5hpVcLy5-XNnAjQpqp0o4tfFUo2UmCTIcTFA9OjbF68wPMKquag0h5zHxCBKj7VkVmhvbAmD3mH2BzyzYn1DbD7dpfILEaDInUAWQE7M-q013QQLGFhoPwvYEV1/s400/anomimage+%25281%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
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The temperature forecast wasn't half bad, but the precipitation forecast was way off.<br />
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However, temperature and precipitation only tell part of the story. Let's take a look at what's going on in the upper atmosphere, as that may be a better indicator of whether this El Niño has significantly influenced our weather this winter. As the graphic below shows, El Niño winters often have a large low pressure anomaly in the Northeastern Pacific from January to March. According to scholars far more learned than I, there is no correlation between the existence of an El Niño<b> </b>and temperature/precipitation on the West Coast before January 1st.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXyCqCXHOYRXQadjWuJz9TD8Vkgyac37k2GL34QldQkDAQ42fiiUmubT2e_H-J4uXfAyb65kgyVtao4DDP3nEpcWEoaI7ucVv6mIp5e5KhIKZNwxa55syAHbgHP5OyRUXtm-6LWwzL6kBr/s1600/150716_el_nino_base.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXyCqCXHOYRXQadjWuJz9TD8Vkgyac37k2GL34QldQkDAQ42fiiUmubT2e_H-J4uXfAyb65kgyVtao4DDP3nEpcWEoaI7ucVv6mIp5e5KhIKZNwxa55syAHbgHP5OyRUXtm-6LWwzL6kBr/s400/150716_el_nino_base.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: NOAA<br />
Retrieved from <a href="http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/new-winter-forecast-el-nino-still-in-charge-but-hope-for-next-winter" target="_blank">Scott Sistek's Weather Blog</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
However, if we look at the 500 hPa height anomaly from October-December of 1982 and 1997 (the other super big El Niño winters), you can see a clear area of low pressure in the Northeastern Pacific, suggesting that the typical wintertime El Niño circulation may set up earlier during very strong El Niño years. That same area of low pressure does not appear in 2015. Two years is an awfully small sample size, but it's still something to consider.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilYVv2TAUxCzAPOJT-FSLuy9anunTpzyUE-f791G2-mIX3TLJTYb2rf5CYQ99cK8fVJuSv5huPmaKf09_j7tDLYSun4daqFg9yHTwgBLjdScKfu-ZySDbmobrVed6Z8sL8eKSoyK9dgYKD/s1600/DAeQk4Hi1O.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilYVv2TAUxCzAPOJT-FSLuy9anunTpzyUE-f791G2-mIX3TLJTYb2rf5CYQ99cK8fVJuSv5huPmaKf09_j7tDLYSun4daqFg9yHTwgBLjdScKfu-ZySDbmobrVed6Z8sL8eKSoyK9dgYKD/s400/DAeQk4Hi1O.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl" target="_blank">NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga_7aJl5mqJdpEsPPcYSLQsHE0OsWW6eDp-3m_8LP6B6Ds93fkDnqmHT93-WKFMmCIZnri8TagZdp81SxrbFutccG9t9xMI9_2Hq5jzojct4ocrexI8xAqs03fXlKjX2nPdbJy_YA5OKTQ/s1600/Ta8T00JsUR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga_7aJl5mqJdpEsPPcYSLQsHE0OsWW6eDp-3m_8LP6B6Ds93fkDnqmHT93-WKFMmCIZnri8TagZdp81SxrbFutccG9t9xMI9_2Hq5jzojct4ocrexI8xAqs03fXlKjX2nPdbJy_YA5OKTQ/s400/Ta8T00JsUR.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl" target="_blank">NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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However, <b>since January 1st, the precipitation and temperature distributions across the West have been much more in line with what we would expect during an El Niño year.</b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7k2Hnavy7JJBGnEQznNkMnvBHTrOqmrhgnI8n75FV75istzPtud8oDPA3S4MRaGCqk6sAyS_dZ3RV8nN1G5EUZTyCTV-DJ4sy4MS9ga6EptzL3tg6WAsm8f2mgAR8SJUwZoX7IgTPEX5/s1600/anomimage.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7k2Hnavy7JJBGnEQznNkMnvBHTrOqmrhgnI8n75FV75istzPtud8oDPA3S4MRaGCqk6sAyS_dZ3RV8nN1G5EUZTyCTV-DJ4sy4MS9ga6EptzL3tg6WAsm8f2mgAR8SJUwZoX7IgTPEX5/s400/anomimage.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfOeR8NCo-mZDE9fzu9iWKCNV1hFay8pTDsi-HJH5KzdFfpJqwaU8dU_MJMg02vv-j3665N0TBt7HS6y5cO8iDxhesGPRYjiNnpXodlj88hueV8K30Yr2xBa6BgMn1zNk10HGohDqn1r_w/s1600/anomimage+%25282%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfOeR8NCo-mZDE9fzu9iWKCNV1hFay8pTDsi-HJH5KzdFfpJqwaU8dU_MJMg02vv-j3665N0TBt7HS6y5cO8iDxhesGPRYjiNnpXodlj88hueV8K30Yr2xBa6BgMn1zNk10HGohDqn1r_w/s400/anomimage+%25282%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/" target="_blank">Western Regional Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The bulk of the precipitation has clearly moved southward into Northern California, so although it didn't make it all the way to Baja California like the Climate Prediction Center was forecasting, it at least made it into the Sunshine State. The West Coast and northern tier of the country have been warmer than normal, just like the CPC forecast.<br />
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Take a look at the 500mb heights over the Eastern Pacific for January 2016. <i>Classic </i>El Niño circulation. The height anomalies this past January look very similar to those from the past mega El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTQcRLflgMSY2Rf-vSedXOykEUhBaVDGf2aWrEPnhQFST81fM6U8THPxvndk8AvhDtDisPNABZmUrgHgsrQeV2kHE0twUB_49Gt2zOA_TOuqZ4xzx6nB4Ufk7TridNvBN-FRl6pGeiBSb6/s1600/bOqn7qUFsp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTQcRLflgMSY2Rf-vSedXOykEUhBaVDGf2aWrEPnhQFST81fM6U8THPxvndk8AvhDtDisPNABZmUrgHgsrQeV2kHE0twUB_49Gt2zOA_TOuqZ4xzx6nB4Ufk7TridNvBN-FRl6pGeiBSb6/s400/bOqn7qUFsp.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl" target="_blank">NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFem1ddxdBXf0Um6a9KL7fwcRDU15hqYyv1irRJBoen-Bp25O-c4HcRE-X_BwKvVcTTmp9dLES2WzSMUgQBIqiyuZylJVybkNzXIGQn_Etq9VgvZw0Fqm-pffHtKolUWMnMkYwZznxTOr/s1600/IWr1IWb_QS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFem1ddxdBXf0Um6a9KL7fwcRDU15hqYyv1irRJBoen-Bp25O-c4HcRE-X_BwKvVcTTmp9dLES2WzSMUgQBIqiyuZylJVybkNzXIGQn_Etq9VgvZw0Fqm-pffHtKolUWMnMkYwZznxTOr/s400/IWr1IWb_QS.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl" target="_blank">NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Bottom line: since January 1st, we have, for the most part, been in a textbook El Niño pattern</b>. There have been some exceptions, such as the incredible warmth we saw earlier this week, but they have been few and far between. Our massive December snowpack is now more-or-less average, while snowpack is still well-above normal in many places in California and Nevada.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXgBnJnnEfJCJsMj0m_MBlhtC_gvgNjVKFPWKZbIXfpQTLLnhOcp47zwT0h5AnsJgQvUleeolxiHYJ9JVLxLbQFaxRwTbl9oFkm-geMAexJfNHCyM1chZmOVDRBSmPsfusSnssmBJRqavR/s1600/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001+%25281%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXgBnJnnEfJCJsMj0m_MBlhtC_gvgNjVKFPWKZbIXfpQTLLnhOcp47zwT0h5AnsJgQvUleeolxiHYJ9JVLxLbQFaxRwTbl9oFkm-geMAexJfNHCyM1chZmOVDRBSmPsfusSnssmBJRqavR/s400/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001+%25281%2529.jpg" width="306" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf" target="_blank">USDA National Water and Climate Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Take a look at Folsom Lake in Northern California- it has skyrocketed to above-normal levels!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8uM9j1mmkxninBv95y6VQiOmCdW8ey4iQa2IeMZQK8CwrdVsKVf3ilEq_HBNFB9cswwOtTHwTHjpcuVYgOD2UXhZtPsCH5zB_G1fvpy0TBYAE2dKpLcAi8GsusWTaXi523qdLVt_rIxM/s1600/getResGraph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL8uM9j1mmkxninBv95y6VQiOmCdW8ey4iQa2IeMZQK8CwrdVsKVf3ilEq_HBNFB9cswwOtTHwTHjpcuVYgOD2UXhZtPsCH5zB_G1fvpy0TBYAE2dKpLcAi8GsusWTaXi523qdLVt_rIxM/s320/getResGraph.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=FOL" target="_blank">California Data Exchange Center</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Why hasn't Southern California gotten pummeled by rain? Some climate scientists, such as Daniel Swain of Stanford University, say that the warm air above the warm water in the tropical Pacific moved further north than expected, causing the storm track to bypass southern California. Others, like Kevin Trenberth, a scientist for the National Corporation for Atmospheric Research, say that the differences in air temperatures along the equator with this El Niño are much less than previous mega El Niños and that this El Niño is being interfered with by activity in the Indian Ocean<b>. </b>Whatever the reason, it looks highly unlikely that Southern California will get a significant amount of precipitation for the remainder of this winter.<br />
<br />
Given the lack of rain in some areas that have been rainy with similarly strong El Niños, we'll see if a significant Californian population is left with the impression that El Niño "never came." If so, it shows that there is still a giant disconnect between the scientific community and the average person, and that scientists need to be more effective in communicating the uncertainties and intricacies of the climate system to the public.<br />
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Thanks for reading!<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-68569163000332861252016-02-09T11:56:00.002-08:002016-02-09T11:56:24.613-08:00Major Inversion<div>
Tuesday, February 9, 2016</div>
<div>
11:37 am</div>
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Right now, we have a pretty impressive inversion over our region. This was something I expected, and honestly, I was surprised that it was not stronger yesterday. It will weaken as the day goes on and the sun heats up the surface, but right now, it is quite striking. </div>
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Take a look at the temperature soundings from Sand Point below. You can see that temperatures approach 20 degrees Centigrade (68 degrees Fahrenheit!) a kilometer above the surface, but down at sea level, temperatures are 6 degrees Centigrade or so - low 40s Fahrenheit.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL8OuDtzrxdPpf7eDhXDrG9Lldlsa_90GZBObIb9UV37uTiueDTxgBIkYplu2nrFhwWEVO0lFPv1ItR20cz3stBPLIqZFf-VYHraZy5rULI4Lwe3z1QRcKU3vTdMn1dz0AEtxIPIOmGoTm/s1600/2016020918.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL8OuDtzrxdPpf7eDhXDrG9Lldlsa_90GZBObIb9UV37uTiueDTxgBIkYplu2nrFhwWEVO0lFPv1ItR20cz3stBPLIqZFf-VYHraZy5rULI4Lwe3z1QRcKU3vTdMn1dz0AEtxIPIOmGoTm/s400/2016020918.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/profiler.spt/2016020918.gif" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Inversions trap moisture and pollutants near the surface, and often result in fog. We've seen pretty widespread fog this morning, but it is in the process of burning off.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTWXMA6maDt7ue5LBqzcv3ZxE0FJ8BhwkcBPFZutaB_mrtu8hHmCmMFJ-S7zqAnzCkbkb6iDFzbWS8gHwm6tYKh4pLFW2uD4x-zKUXxCUWnwUkG7J6WIN3FRwZrAwPYAjYn4PJ7rTEBGeT/s1600/201602091930.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTWXMA6maDt7ue5LBqzcv3ZxE0FJ8BhwkcBPFZutaB_mrtu8hHmCmMFJ-S7zqAnzCkbkb6iDFzbWS8gHwm6tYKh4pLFW2uD4x-zKUXxCUWnwUkG7J6WIN3FRwZrAwPYAjYn4PJ7rTEBGeT/s400/201602091930.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">11:30 am PST, Tue 09 Feb 2016<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+12" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinbAvPfm6EaHQ6hxro58FkeOMPB1PziaB5EkVp6O5x-580fgYjUygL6dHGllYChH3jy4CCBufnJbCh_p9bwGUeMypzcNO21ThMTzZ4T5poPB_ikjoqDZXbheDM552b2-O4oVFgpkfPvyoj/s1600/ColumbiaCam+%25281%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinbAvPfm6EaHQ6hxro58FkeOMPB1PziaB5EkVp6O5x-580fgYjUygL6dHGllYChH3jy4CCBufnJbCh_p9bwGUeMypzcNO21ThMTzZ4T5poPB_ikjoqDZXbheDM552b2-O4oVFgpkfPvyoj/s400/ColumbiaCam+%25281%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">11:30 am PSDT, Tue 09 Feb 2016<br />KOMO Columbia Tower Cam<br />Credit:<a href="http://komonews.com/weather/cameras" target="_blank">KOMO News</a></td></tr>
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Temperatures have been exceptionally warm aloft (Paradise was in the low 70s yesterday!) and they will be once again today. In fact, temperatures aloft are warmer now than our <i>summertime</i> averages. Quillayute hit 70 yesterday... their maximum average summer high is 69. We can get some nice weather during the winter, but it's a truly rare occasion when the coast and areas above 5,400 feet are hitting 70 degrees in early February.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVXENgXVJZu0SN0W7pLF5zjDgJ5V5Fq6z0iRKRbBjRMVuL6txnzx1hKYdecyhc_18KBJLqodyprtFjCRFsvwvdPInTmPqdsycuFe4dJa_u0Dc2A0IZz8RbN-jn0jL-eJnx0zygTmiBU59R/s1600/mountain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVXENgXVJZu0SN0W7pLF5zjDgJ5V5Fq6z0iRKRbBjRMVuL6txnzx1hKYdecyhc_18KBJLqodyprtFjCRFsvwvdPInTmPqdsycuFe4dJa_u0Dc2A0IZz8RbN-jn0jL-eJnx0zygTmiBU59R/s400/mountain.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Paradise Ranger Station.<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm" target="_blank">National Park Service</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk7y7z5Gumj7VawDRHqzxjgyRF6a9SE6HPxcgFZa9Uy34-COKPm5DNthTqufEHUp92Og-F4nFkAHfCUFcbq5atxbDPmGOSDZi9hrKtfBrh5jiPHiGva36OR-APCx_Vi2ATpIgihJSqyqlz/s1600/volcanocamhd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk7y7z5Gumj7VawDRHqzxjgyRF6a9SE6HPxcgFZa9Uy34-COKPm5DNthTqufEHUp92Og-F4nFkAHfCUFcbq5atxbDPmGOSDZi9hrKtfBrh5jiPHiGva36OR-APCx_Vi2ATpIgihJSqyqlz/s400/volcanocamhd.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Johnson Ridge Observatory<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/" target="_blank">US Forest Service</a></td></tr>
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Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-20404192590038536302016-02-08T18:38:00.002-08:002016-02-08T19:11:31.826-08:00The Death Ridge!Monday, February 8, 2016<br />
4:59 p.m.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEsfYCeix3YOPdNtohVoLX55wwA9lLe7HA6mzIxpZ3c5qNmBGZcwROssfEr43GCImcRuZLPHcVx786Rm7jMJveJuvo8VhpNq_J87dgnGI23fiNsir4IOB6crtElVB-JurN4venabEyT9ib/s1600/ScreenHunter_892+Feb.+08+16.58.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="395" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEsfYCeix3YOPdNtohVoLX55wwA9lLe7HA6mzIxpZ3c5qNmBGZcwROssfEr43GCImcRuZLPHcVx786Rm7jMJveJuvo8VhpNq_J87dgnGI23fiNsir4IOB6crtElVB-JurN4venabEyT9ib/s400/ScreenHunter_892+Feb.+08+16.58.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 10:00 am PST, Mon 08 Feb 2016 - 6hr Fcst<br />
Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_thick+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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We’ve seen our fair share of suffixes and nicknames for
atmospheric and oceanic phenomena of all types these past two years. We had
“The Blob,” a simple but very accurate designation given to a massive pool of
warm water in the Northeast Pacific. We’re in the midst of the “Godzilla El
Nino,” an El Nino truly monstrous in size and intensity. Just this past month,
we had Snowzilla/Snowmageddon/Winter Storm Jonas, a blizzard that paralyzed the
eastern third of the country and dumped feet of snow across some of the largest
cities in the country. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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For the first half of this week, an incredibly strong ridge of high
pressure will set up shop over the Western U.S., killing any chance of exciting
weather over thousands of miles for the next several days. The name for this
beast?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Death Ridge!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before I go any further, let me give you some meteorology
101 and explain what a ridge is. A ridge is simply an area of high pressure that extends into the upper levels of the atmosphere. Ridges, especially strong ones, push the jet stream or storm track northward. Similarly, troughs are areas of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, and they cause the jet stream to sag southward. <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm6o3j6sllOM004lhFSjc8AbbNiWufRA0gwf2oCI89WawYyQH_KcQHuwASvINFv6pK-XmwihFQ2Qm-laWrWS9aU937RIg-dCdrxrp4Myz6FKzyXdONMq4JpLgWga1_Qxf2tRv0FrnBtPRB/s1600/troughridge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm6o3j6sllOM004lhFSjc8AbbNiWufRA0gwf2oCI89WawYyQH_KcQHuwASvINFv6pK-XmwihFQ2Qm-laWrWS9aU937RIg-dCdrxrp4Myz6FKzyXdONMq4JpLgWga1_Qxf2tRv0FrnBtPRB/s400/troughridge.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.meted.ucar.edu/fire/s290/unit7/print.htm" target="_blank">University Corporation for Atmospheric Research</a></td></tr>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
What makes this ridge special is simply how big it is. Many
of the ridges that affect us in the winter, especially those between storm systems, are very weak and only
result in a temporary decrease in shower activity in some areas. This ridge will prevent
any weather system off the Pacific from coming even remotely close to our neck
of the woods, while making snow levels skyrocket to well over 13,000 feet in the
process. Camp Muir, at 10,110 feet on Mt. Rainier, has been hovering between 44 and 48 degrees since 9 am this morning, and their most recent measurement (5 pm) was their coolest. Simply incredible. <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Still don't fully grasp how strong this ridge is? Look at the satellite image below.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinfX38sUjxuoYrFTW-YmAqzTGtIKBwRntSOYzstB1vzhXiB25vNwNWvZm0gwNJIdAazJ9FshhARoJjMXNNTdnMtr3Gzl4NNvGVur_iKC0ixoHKq8iGrELwkDnyjjDnvLe50HrM4b0rYfVO/s1600/Death+Ridge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinfX38sUjxuoYrFTW-YmAqzTGtIKBwRntSOYzstB1vzhXiB25vNwNWvZm0gwNJIdAazJ9FshhARoJjMXNNTdnMtr3Gzl4NNvGVur_iKC0ixoHKq8iGrELwkDnyjjDnvLe50HrM4b0rYfVO/s640/Death+Ridge.jpg" width="452" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image taken ~ 4pm PST from NASA's AQUA Satellite<br />
Credit: <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-02-08&v=-141.22629956485844,29.462221272131927,-93.20286206485845,51.36456502213193" target="_blank">NASA Worldview</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Folks, this is early February during an El Nino year. The West Coast has no business being this calm. There are hardly any clouds in the sky, and the few clouds you see are fog due to local inversions from - you guessed it - this massive ridge of high pressure. Honestly, it's kinda spooky.<br />
<br />
The clear skies give us a great view of the snow lying on the ground, and as the picture below shows, we are at or above normal in most locations.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBNcANnngmjpueM_h6F2y0CczToRXS8irLJ_ymtnTYzNaL2B7k0gPzDPZlSjXaeAHGfhOPQlZDcahOtDa0HwG9S2e2-AcjMOjfLra-TLJcfUpJ0PpW1nWzvnvXutX97l92RSNMC3Edylhs/s1600/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBNcANnngmjpueM_h6F2y0CczToRXS8irLJ_ymtnTYzNaL2B7k0gPzDPZlSjXaeAHGfhOPQlZDcahOtDa0HwG9S2e2-AcjMOjfLra-TLJcfUpJ0PpW1nWzvnvXutX97l92RSNMC3Edylhs/s640/west_swepctnormal_update-page-001.jpg" width="494" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/snow.html" target="_blank">USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service</a></td></tr>
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<br />
Winds aloft are very light as well. Since 1 pm today, Camp Muir on Mt. Rainier has not reported a gust over 5 mph. On Friday, they gusted to 118! I guess you could say it is "dead calm" up there.<br />
<br />
Tomorrow will be similarly spectacular, and although clouds and a few showers may move in on Wednesday, highs should still reach into the mid-upper 50s. The rest of the week looks unsettled at times but we do not look stormy by any means. The days are getting longer, football season is done, and spring isn't too far around the corner.<br />
<br />
Charlie</div>
Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-44261158706559194952016-02-04T17:52:00.000-08:002016-02-04T17:52:21.109-08:00One More Storm To Get Through, Then Spring!Tuesday, February 4, 2016<br />
4:25 pm<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVEXJ_KcN4otHFbzTb37Bx647CwuXJU1Ye2nrXbJp6L5drSyhArw31lLbWJSMt9LYRFmPwq9UOeLingEuTeK4IM1ZxCIQ6bH8CteN51gLJ4x1gRII-nXy0hmgr45V6Q0ftH_LYdbO8Ifca/s1600/CNHNB_l.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVEXJ_KcN4otHFbzTb37Bx647CwuXJU1Ye2nrXbJp6L5drSyhArw31lLbWJSMt9LYRFmPwq9UOeLingEuTeK4IM1ZxCIQ6bH8CteN51gLJ4x1gRII-nXy0hmgr45V6Q0ftH_LYdbO8Ifca/s400/CNHNB_l.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A dreary afternoon at Cannon Beach, OR. Credit: <a href="http://www.surflook.com/live-surf-cams-free-hd-and-non-hd/u-s-north-west/oregon-washington-canada/" target="_blank">Surflook Surf Cams</a></td></tr>
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<br />
Today was one of the grayer days I have witnessed in my 23 years upon this Earth. The skies were gray, the lake looked gray... heck, even my countenance looked gray. It wasn't sunny enough brighten my mood, but it wasn't stormy enough to keep me interested. It was just one of "those days."<br />
<br />
Thankfully, "those days" are over, at least for the foreseeable future. We've got a relatively potent storm headed our way tomorrow, and after that, we get our first taste of spring as a MASSIVE ridge of high pressure settles directly over our area.<br />
<br />
Tonight, clouds will increase, and we won't have much in the way of precipitation until tomorrow. The picture below shows a pretty solid swath of precipitation off our coast at 7 am, but the I-5 corridor should remain relatively dry until the afternoon, as this batch of rain will be slow to progress eastward. Overall, expect around 1 inch of rain on the coast, 0.5 inches here in the lowlands, and 1-2 inches in the mountains, with the highest amounts on the southwestern slopes of the Olympics.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip4KysTuC69r6-kDlxPPBweSw3_9YA9rc5Jo9L74rQR9SPlLlPlqimeFVANOc315vvxPKfoic4K_93ulQPxOMSTc9IBcjeJoF9vwJ6b0KL_XSH4eOF8s-kGMc5jVVGUEQ0Ds2DzDJFujJ2/s1600/pcp3.27.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip4KysTuC69r6-kDlxPPBweSw3_9YA9rc5Jo9L74rQR9SPlLlPlqimeFVANOc315vvxPKfoic4K_93ulQPxOMSTc9IBcjeJoF9vwJ6b0KL_XSH4eOF8s-kGMc5jVVGUEQ0Ds2DzDJFujJ2/s400/pcp3.27.0000.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 07:00 am PST, Fri 05 Feb 2016 - 27hr Fcst<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_pcp3+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
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<br />
This front will deliver a pretty good blow to Western Whatcom County and the San Juan Islands, where a high wind warning is in place for gusts up to 60 miles per hour. There are wind advisories further south in Skagit and Island Counties as well as the Coast and the Strait of Juan de Fuca for gusts up to 50 mph. Winds gusts should stay below 40 in the Puget Sound lowlands. It won't be a blowdown by any stretch of the imagination, but there will be enough wind around to keep things interesting.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguAT1qq457qaD0S6u-3ObccZBen7Oy9gZWCAzrqEiB4gIFZFT3k7FwkfdFztp-szbwRFBZblZ5YkPj8HbDeIbEcssPVH_6Ydpqe4W5fIiOMJqO-rKw2c50QCP-CaWgLrcTMEBG9OBfZjrA/s1600/ScreenHunter_891+Feb.+04+17.17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguAT1qq457qaD0S6u-3ObccZBen7Oy9gZWCAzrqEiB4gIFZFT3k7FwkfdFztp-szbwRFBZblZ5YkPj8HbDeIbEcssPVH_6Ydpqe4W5fIiOMJqO-rKw2c50QCP-CaWgLrcTMEBG9OBfZjrA/s400/ScreenHunter_891+Feb.+04+17.17.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/" target="_blank">National Weather Service - Seattle Office</a></td></tr>
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<br />
Snow levels will be high - over 5,000 feet - so this won't be a big snowmaker for the mountains. However, the Cascades could pick up a half foot or so of snow Friday night into Saturday morning as the front moves on through and cooler air with post-frontal showers move on in.<br />
<br />
We calm down on Sunday and stay that way for a while, as one of the strongest ridges I can <i>ever</i> remember seeing for this time of year sets up camp right over our area and stays there through the first half of next week. Just take a look at the picture below! You don't have to be a meteorologist to know that that is one helluva big ridge.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj93mSZ0Y0VHJtvy8Ubq6qxhTGERge9WeWYwZiQPJTH3TST6vrcVjn0AqGZ40sdYnBo3QfQ5iqIx6OBbXU07MLmSYQ95LyAGyoyq1ss1o8_qmhWUEF362eUkiYnmQoYTxrJI3UUr9kq59Y9/s1600/500vor.102.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj93mSZ0Y0VHJtvy8Ubq6qxhTGERge9WeWYwZiQPJTH3TST6vrcVjn0AqGZ40sdYnBo3QfQ5iqIx6OBbXU07MLmSYQ95LyAGyoyq1ss1o8_qmhWUEF362eUkiYnmQoYTxrJI3UUr9kq59Y9/s400/500vor.102.0000.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Valid 10:00 am PST, Mon 08 Feb 2016 - 102hr Fcst<br />Credit: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd1_x_500vor+///3" target="_blank">University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />This ridge could still give us some areas of pesky morning fog in the South Sound, but overall, it will give us much warmer lowland temperatures than the ridge that settled over our area in early January. Freezing levels will soar to over 11,000 feet, daytime highs could make it into the 60s, and for the first time in several months, it will <i>definitely</i> feel like spring.<br />
<br />
CharlieCharlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8199276181266004435.post-58204738834349187132016-02-03T17:39:00.001-08:002016-02-03T21:23:33.947-08:00Global Warming: Too Little Action, Too Much Reaction<div>
</div>
Wednesday, January 20, 2016<br />
12:24 pm<br />
<br />
Charles Dudley Warner once said that "everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it." That time has come and passed, as we now have some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world running millions of lines of code and assimilating terabytes of data to make multiple forecasts each day. We have satellite imagery, radiosondes, surface stations, radars, and everything in between. By doing all of this, we have created forecasts that both help people plan their day and safeguard lives and property. We love to talk about the weather, and we love to do stuff about it too.<br />
<br />
Alas, the same is not true for climate. We talk about climate even more than weather, and you need to look no further than the 2016 presidential campaign to notice this. I have not heard one mention of Hurricane Patricia, the 200 mph mutant cyclone that stormed into the Mexican Coast this past October, but I’ve heard plenty of talk about rising sea levels, increasing severe weather events, and linkages between climate change and the devastating civil war in Syria (which, by the way, is not a completely absurd connection). To be fair, we do a lot of research on climate, but that's not what we need to be doing. We need to be decreasing our greenhouse gas emissions. On that front, we haven't done much at all.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSdVOEfl_aoF5JbQuwU0z7TSjTXd1k89SHgLc9-Ezf98-kCyg2DJVCSIKnS4MGY8z3rsJ_5qxhGBjrDpWDOQYngUCFiVZwPNaah1VM_rhS-TrAJI1-guaeBM9WT-kTdfd3r6mTgCWBq_r4/s1600/screen-shot-2015-09-21-10_0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSdVOEfl_aoF5JbQuwU0z7TSjTXd1k89SHgLc9-Ezf98-kCyg2DJVCSIKnS4MGY8z3rsJ_5qxhGBjrDpWDOQYngUCFiVZwPNaah1VM_rhS-TrAJI1-guaeBM9WT-kTdfd3r6mTgCWBq_r4/s400/screen-shot-2015-09-21-10_0.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/us-china-climate-change-deal-presidents-obama-xi-discuss-emissions-goals-white-house-2107277" target="_blank">International Business Times</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Interestingly enough, our carbon dioxide emissions have slightly decreased over the past several years, and that is because of fracking, a new method of extracting methane by fracturing shale underground and releasing methane in the process. While fracking may seem like a gift from heaven because it is a domestic energy source that produces a cleaner-burning fuel than coal, some of that methane escapes and is not captured. Methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and many scientists believe that because of this additional methane escape, fracking is actually a greater contributor to global warming than coal.<br />
<br />
But back to our inaction on climate change. For all of the doomsday rhetoric from newspaper headlines, environmental groups, and uninformed politicians, we haven't gotten our act together and made any serious progress on the issue. There are several reasons why, but they all come back to one main reason.<br />
<br />
<b>As a whole, we would rather contribute to climate change than change our way of life</b>.<br />
<br />
If we really wanted to curb climate change, we'd have fewer kids. If we really wanted to curb climate change, we'd all take mass transit instead of driving hybrid cars. If we really wanted to curb climate change, climatologists, who should be setting an example for the rest of the world, would have Skype sessions instead of flying halfway around the world to climate conferences.<br />
<br />
We'd build hydroelectric dams, and accept that some ecosystems would incur significant damages. We'd invest in wind, and we'd definitely invest in solar. We'd build nuclear power plants, and work to control nuclear waste and prevent meltdowns. Personally, I find it mind-boggling that often times, those who exaggerate global warming the most are also the most opposed to nuclear power. At this point, renewable energy sources alone do not even come close to providing the amount of energy we need to sustain our current lifestyles.<br />
<br />
In other words, we talk the talk, but we don't walk the walk. So how do we go about fixing our apathy on fixing climate change?<br />
<br />
First, we need to be more realistic with the American populace about the dangers of climate change. This is particularly true for people with organizations with a lot of public influence. In my opinion, climate change will be the most pressing issue for the world in the 21st century and beyond because it will affect every inhabitant of this planet to a pretty significant extent. Most climate models have the average temperature of the Earth rising anywhere from 3-12 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century, with variations due to different amounts of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. This will have tremendous consequences for many ecosystems across the planet and will force humankind to adapt to a new environment. Heat waves will become more common and more severe, and while greater uncertainty exists with precipitation, droughts and floods could become more severe as well. Tropical cyclones may become more intense. One thing is for sure: the sea level will rise, potentially inundating low-lying areas if they do not adapt. At this point, sea-level rises are expected to be 1-3 feet by 2100.<br />
<br />
Second, and this goes hand in hand with my first proposition, we need to end our hyperbolic, alarmist climate statements and our "skepticism" and/or outright denial of a universally accepted and empirically verified scientific theory. Although the future that I just cast sounds very alarming, the amount of exaggeration and misinformation circulating throughout politics and popular culture is astounding. Moreover, much of this rhetoric is spread by sources we would think to be somewhat reliable.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8bZCEECSLWH6_EOOLl53DDp9vBpe1nojvlLA4N7aFFtq9SG2adF9ohVpfpDYyPwgVsOOsB3y3Y0ig6TxcjiZqIy11_O42LWzXR7sqAZTpTMqe0NOHA7_UR9_azdZu1604wwMoYuMvy4f/s1600/Bernie_Sanders_%252820033841412_24d8796e44_c0%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8bZCEECSLWH6_EOOLl53DDp9vBpe1nojvlLA4N7aFFtq9SG2adF9ohVpfpDYyPwgVsOOsB3y3Y0ig6TxcjiZqIy11_O42LWzXR7sqAZTpTMqe0NOHA7_UR9_azdZu1604wwMoYuMvy4f/s400/Bernie_Sanders_%252820033841412_24d8796e44_c0%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Good intentions, bad science. Credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#/media/File:Bernie_Sanders_(20033841412_24d8796e44_c0).jpg" target="_blank">Nick Solari</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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I like Bernie Sanders, and I truly feel like he is one of the few "good guys" in politics. However, I must admit, while making combating climate change a central tenet of his campaign, he has resorted to incorrect and exaggerated claims to push his agenda and is doing a disservice to the American people in the process. He also seems to claim on his website that the reason we haven't stopped global warming isn't because the vast majority of people are doing their part, it is because of billionaires who are responsible for preventing climate change legislation. <b>We should be less focused with blaming other people and more focused on decreasing our greenhouse gas emissions, because the vast majority of people are NOT making enough of an effort to do this... myself included.</b> <b> </b><br />
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On the other hand, most of the Republican candidates are either apathetic about global warming or deny it altogether. None of them are even remotely committed to taking drastic action, which is what needs to be done. If combating climate change is a priority for you, don't vote for any of the Republicans running in the general election.<br />
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However, it's not just our politicians. It's also the media. Take a look at some headlines I found that were published in the last 24 hours.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghj0OaqSFFqwhkbaOZRn_HZ9VKY0GlSjcC1GMf5bQOXersJUYt_FVYtlXMsBDeVzUrW-MBhyphenhyphenNYQrEqq25cwOAq94Pfrp0anwM6qpTWR2xtuNn0b3qZOi1hFLFwuSZH3AdsN7zPi-jmO21K/s1600/ScreenHunter_874+Feb.+02+10.57.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghj0OaqSFFqwhkbaOZRn_HZ9VKY0GlSjcC1GMf5bQOXersJUYt_FVYtlXMsBDeVzUrW-MBhyphenhyphenNYQrEqq25cwOAq94Pfrp0anwM6qpTWR2xtuNn0b3qZOi1hFLFwuSZH3AdsN7zPi-jmO21K/s320/ScreenHunter_874+Feb.+02+10.57.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/climate-change-the-chief-culprit-for-stormy-winter-weather-1.2518556" target="_blank">Irish Times</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisVgZwPgFwVGUfl0MaAFroWORvdjeZ_2wjmxht6sNDm4ICXre6ifWrLJiFuU2jO6IA44A2lGsMnKncf2mfXlW85SjEF-8wu2rqt5LqQfVVdkBHY7cn_ds6kQd16JLqEH_cn-AWxOYnYLik/s1600/ScreenHunter_881+Feb.+02+11.29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisVgZwPgFwVGUfl0MaAFroWORvdjeZ_2wjmxht6sNDm4ICXre6ifWrLJiFuU2jO6IA44A2lGsMnKncf2mfXlW85SjEF-8wu2rqt5LqQfVVdkBHY7cn_ds6kQd16JLqEH_cn-AWxOYnYLik/s320/ScreenHunter_881+Feb.+02+11.29.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-will-unleash-increasingly-devastating-floods-in-coming-years-scientists-warn-a6847471.html" target="_blank">UK Independent</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXRGiTR8Dm2goSzZXqw-eEmbStG7Jt9KEygrMuQ03zxxmcM3u637I-ml0se5HA2vFAWvWhsgXl-waB7FxPEz6rB9CU8X_3UYzSBqJmUKZLqDs4Azwp0sZrxgycbRS9ovy91-Ay1bRMpus/s1600/ScreenHunter_882+Feb.+02+11.32.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrXRGiTR8Dm2goSzZXqw-eEmbStG7Jt9KEygrMuQ03zxxmcM3u637I-ml0se5HA2vFAWvWhsgXl-waB7FxPEz6rB9CU8X_3UYzSBqJmUKZLqDs4Azwp0sZrxgycbRS9ovy91-Ay1bRMpus/s320/ScreenHunter_882+Feb.+02+11.32.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/640519/What-global-warming-Large-parts-of-Earth-expected-to-COOL-over-next-five-years" target="_blank">UK Express</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCrkJok2hVXXRwxKay0pV4LKEtAx8YCFmYo4ihdvlaBrC0qEc6B16TWULl8J6F2XuUdhnxUUfzvsUp2eCVvtCz3WzgGs5ng6MQEpyjr3A0YW-atoQCrjDHoXTi7_AgBCLhv4Cr5lQYqxR0/s1600/ScreenHunter_880+Feb.+02+11.25.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="66" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCrkJok2hVXXRwxKay0pV4LKEtAx8YCFmYo4ihdvlaBrC0qEc6B16TWULl8J6F2XuUdhnxUUfzvsUp2eCVvtCz3WzgGs5ng6MQEpyjr3A0YW-atoQCrjDHoXTi7_AgBCLhv4Cr5lQYqxR0/s320/ScreenHunter_880+Feb.+02+11.25.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="http://www.thefrisky.com/2016-02-02/punxsatawney-phil-confirms-global-warming/" target="_blank">The Frisky</a></td></tr>
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The thing is, most of these articles cite some scientist, but the writers twist his/her words so they can write a straightforward article that will get a lot of views. Common examples include scientists citing one study that shows that there may be a connection between an increased possibility of winter storms and global warming, and then news media outlets blaming the storm solely on global warming. Other headlines use hyperbole, like the one from the UK Independent. My personal favorite here is the satirical piece about everybody's favorite groundhog, as it perfectly illustrates how the media has a tendency to blame one event on global warming.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnn-48ZK8mK2T4AlJyjbKlWZbP3ZWxz395lud5Myb3cNTy1rWJn_6xHlKbadFu9VzEiBJdAEbx0lIIbrI6MDa0PIyqSI-EXW28yZ6fHQ111llGZksuwo40w3Q9oF_lRdYjVKaYRBFPP-pV/s1600/ScreenHunter_883+Feb.+03+17.03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnn-48ZK8mK2T4AlJyjbKlWZbP3ZWxz395lud5Myb3cNTy1rWJn_6xHlKbadFu9VzEiBJdAEbx0lIIbrI6MDa0PIyqSI-EXW28yZ6fHQ111llGZksuwo40w3Q9oF_lRdYjVKaYRBFPP-pV/s400/ScreenHunter_883+Feb.+03+17.03.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/" target="_blank">Watts Up With That</a></td></tr>
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Fortunately, there aren't too many scientists who take part in the hyperbole/skepticism of global warming. Unfortunately, the ones that do gain a lot of media attention. <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/" target="_blank">Watts Up With That</a>, a site that claims to be the world's most viewed on global warming and climate change, is dedicated to selecting and twisting scientific information in an attempt to disprove the theory of global warming. And let's not forget about Dick Lindzen, the MIT atmospheric scientist who did groundbreaking work in atmospheric dynamics but still denies global warming (and the fact that smoking causes cancer). The majority of scientists believe that the effects of climate change are subtle at this point, but that the Earth's climate will be very different 100 years from now.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwFF_VTy_60oYB7NMkCNPfgQcesgZviYaUL2SYNAFFO_lpWBelFrYLjUZy-2VgGgz3_qT5T1QYPy_vGkgzFwVaoqVezzbIRJlMPnfCRWfu-O1xlY2g9KR0YNCwsr1dgPvgm9oBYUGRYWuf/s1600/ScreenHunter_886+Feb.+03+21.12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwFF_VTy_60oYB7NMkCNPfgQcesgZviYaUL2SYNAFFO_lpWBelFrYLjUZy-2VgGgz3_qT5T1QYPy_vGkgzFwVaoqVezzbIRJlMPnfCRWfu-O1xlY2g9KR0YNCwsr1dgPvgm9oBYUGRYWuf/s400/ScreenHunter_886+Feb.+03+21.12.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Credit: <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf" target="_blank">IPCC 5th Assessment Report</a></td></tr>
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And then there are those <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjmtSkl53h4" target="_blank">environmentalists</a> who <i>really</i> exaggerate the facts to push their agenda. Much of the <a href="http://350.org/about/science/" target="_blank">science section of 350.org</a> is bogus. For example, they say scientists warn that sea levels could rise as much as several meters this century, when the scientific consensus as well as the most recent and sophisticated climate models with the most aggressive carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) have it rising a meter at most. <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/global-warming/climate-science/" target="_blank">Greenpeace</a> and <a href="http://www.sierraclub.org/" target="_blank">The Sierra Club</a> are a little better.<br />
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I apologize for being so inflammatory, but the way some politicians, the media, environmentalists, and even scientists approach climate change is unacceptable. The basic science is settled, and with a situation as serious as global warming, people deserve to know the truth.<br />
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So, now that I've finished ranting, what actions should we take to mitigate global warming?<br />
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There are many, many ways we can reduce our carbon footprint. Let's start with some basic ones. This is just a partial list.<br />
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<b>Conserve: </b>This is fairly straightforward. Turn down the thermostat and wear a giant coat. Take "sailor showers," and if you have the money, invest in insulating your home. Sometimes, it's just as simple as turning off a light you aren't using, or replacing your incandescent bulbs with fluorescent or LED ones. Stop watching TV and go play outside (but still read my blog). In all cases, our climate and your wallet will thank you. I do all of these things pretty regularly, but I tend to listen to music through a power-hungry speaker system.<br />
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<b>Don't Drive Everywhere: </b>Again, fairly straightforward. Unfortunately, Seattle's public transportation system leaves a lot to be desired, but our light rail system is becoming more expansive. Seattle is relatively bike-friendly compared to other major cities as well, although a lot more work could be done on that front as well. If I were mayor, I would make public transportation free so that people would be more encouraged to use it. I'd add that air travel also produces tons (literally) of carbon dioxide per passenger, so if you want to reduce your footprint, skipping that trip to Bali is a good place to start.<br />
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<b>Buy Used: </b>Manufacturing takes resources - you have to mine the minerals used in the manufacturing process, synthesize them into usable compounds for the appropriate manufacturing facility, make the product, advertise the product, ship the product, etc. If you buy something used on Craigslist or at your local thrift store, you save money and limit waste products.<br />
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<b>Get Involved: </b>Write your legislator to tell them that you want them to take action on climate change in some specific way, and if they don't do it, you'll tell all your friends to not vote for them for reelection. It works, trust me. Educate people on the science of climate change without resorting to alarmist claims... it's scary enough as-is. Call out people and organizations that hype, are skeptical of, or deny climate change altogether. Start organizations, make petitions, go the whole nine yards. Just don't be a hypocrite when you do it.<br />
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In my opinion, these sacrifices are worth it. They require relatively little effort, don't affect your life in any major way, and keep money in the bank. Here are some more that are even more effective, but that many people might not be willing to do.<br />
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<b>Don't Have Kids: </b>Or at least don't have very many. This is a big one. If we had one billion people on this planet, we wouldn't be talking about global warming - at least not the type of warming we are seeing right now. The best way to reduce a carbon footprint is to not have a footprint in the first place. Achieving zero or negative population growth in industrialized would be very effective for reducing carbon emissions. I do not know what the social and economic repercussions of this would be, but they would probably be significant. This would be an interesting research topic and is definitely something that should be studied more.<br />
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<b>Become A Vegetarian: </b>This may be hard for some people. I was a pescetarian (seafood-eater) for a while, but after a year, I broke down and went on a meat binge. Still, I may resume being a pescetarian. It is cheaper, much more environmentally friendly, and more humane. The fewer animals you kill, the better.<br />
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Additionally, there are things that politicians, the media, and people with a little more authority can do.<br />
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<b>Stop The Alarmism/Denial</b>: Global warming is a serious issue, and it is imperative that those who act on behalf of the public and/or disseminate information to the public do so in an accurate manner. I'm not saying that the government shouldn't censor free speech. However, I am saying that there is a moral obligation of those in power to put the health of our planet and people over their profits.<br />
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<b>End Subsides for Fossil Fuels</b>: We need to invest heavily in clean, renewable energy and nuclear power if we wish to reduce our carbon footprint without changing our lifestyles. Clean energy, not coal and oil, should be subsidized by the government.<br />
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<b>Create a Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax</b>: We have failed on combating climate change because of the “tragedy of the commons;” one person’s contributions to global warming are negligible and don't affect them personally, so why would they want to change their lifestyle? Of course, when everybody thinks like this, problems arise. The best way to discourage people from contributing to global warming is to have it affect them personally, and the best way to do that is to institute a carbon tax. Nobody likes taxes, so in exchange for this added tax, we could lower other taxes (ex: sales tax). Depressingly enough, a petition for just, I-732, that got hundreds of thousands of signatures, but has been opposed by both Republicans and Democrats. Remember what I said about contacting your legislator? This would be a great time to do it. You can learn more about it/contact your legislator <a href="http://yeson732.org/" target="_blank">here</a> and also read Cliff Mass' <a href="http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/01/why-is-both-political-left-and-right.html" target="_blank">excellent blog post</a> on the issue.<br />
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I could blog until the proverbial cows came home about this issue. We talk too much, and do too little, and our efforts tend to be halfhearted at best. In the words of Yoda...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnAwfAqlOMI2XNfdsZe7GhQrEEIe2g-K6pgRYg_BHj1MZ_MBKJvu1kYcHJhjrYbmkx_v9sRLt3fXqEeYiR3jOfgY-_l9FqKDbXqDJnyo858iom3vZRe98AqWk1Zttf1BCaJIit-7hMEFIQ/s1600/tumblr_lx709p6pN81r98lguo2_500.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnAwfAqlOMI2XNfdsZe7GhQrEEIe2g-K6pgRYg_BHj1MZ_MBKJvu1kYcHJhjrYbmkx_v9sRLt3fXqEeYiR3jOfgY-_l9FqKDbXqDJnyo858iom3vZRe98AqWk1Zttf1BCaJIit-7hMEFIQ/s400/tumblr_lx709p6pN81r98lguo2_500.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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Thanks for reading!</div>
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Charlie</div>
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Charlie Phillipshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00714553915658896340noreply@blogger.com1