Friday, March 30, 2012

Mega-Millions and Global Warming

Friday, March 30, 2012
10:42 A.M.

The Mega-Millions jackpot is, as of 10:43 A.M., 640 million dollars. I've never bought a lottery ticket, but I'm pretty tempted to do so. Even though it's somewhat of a long shot, it definitely makes for interesting conversation material. What would you do with 640 million dollars? I don't know what I would do.

I'm gonna get a little philosophical on my weather blog. I've never believed that money brings you happiness. I have plenty of mega-rich neighbors, but they don't seem any happier than any other people I know, and in some cases, they seem pretty unhappy. If I won 640 million dollars, I'd probably save a couple million for myself and my family, but I'd end up giving the rest away to fund research on alternative energy to help mitigate the effects of global warming. Although nearly all climatologists believe in global warming, it still amazes me how many tv "meteorologists" don't believe our planet is warming. A study in March of 2010 by researchers at George Mason University and the University of Texas at Austin found that only half of 571 television weathercasters surveyed believed that global warming was occurring, and fewer than a third believed that global warming was "caused mostly by human activities. And it gets even worse. More than a quarter of weathercasters in the survey believed that "global warming is a scam." 

This is pitiful. A national embarrassment. Time after time, scientists have shown that greenhouse gasses trap heat and cause a warming of the planet. This has been verified in laboratory studies, in climate models, and in climate records. Global warming skeptics pick pieces of evidence support their claim that global warming is not occurring, and because they pick and choose their evidence to show to people, their "research" has no scientific value. 

And the whole global warming debate aside, doesn't it make sense to take drastic measures to clean our planet if it is even possible that what models are forecasting may come true?

That's what I want to leave you with today. If I won the mega-millions jackpot, I would focus my efforts on getting the message out there that global warming is very serious, and, frankly, at this point, inevitable. But there are things we can do to lessen the effects of global warming. We can develop alternative energy sources (I'm a big fan of solar and nuclear), we can develop carbon sequestration more effectively, we can make more fuel-efficient cars, we can reduce our population, we can have more sustainable logging industries to prevent deforestation. The list goes on and on. And we can set examples for our fellow citizens of the world. We can take the bus. We can install solar panels on our roofs. We can breathe less (just kidding).

I hope we are ready for climate change and ocean acidification, because these will be the most significant environmental changes we have seen on our planet for at least the past 700,000 years. 


Thursday, March 29, 2012

Heavy Mountain Snow

Thursday, March 29, 2012
10:33 A.M.

I've yet to go skiing this year (I know, it's pretty bad), but I'm honestly going to try to make an effort to go up this weekend. We are seeing some incredible amounts of snowfall in the mountains for late March. In fact, as of March 25, we were nearly at our average for the entire year, and we have already surpassed it with the snowfall we have seen since then. And if this snow continues to pile up in April, we will see even higher amounts.

I remember the 2007-2008 ski season well, as I skied nearly 30 days that year. That year was a phenomenal snow year, as Snoqualmie Pass nearly got 50 FEET of snow. It was awesome. Most of the snow that year occurred in December, January, and February, but the snowfall persisted long into the spring as well. Alpental   stayed open until Memorial Day weekend, and I was lucky enough to ski the backcountry on the last day it was open. It was so awesome... skiing over waterfalls with the softest corn snow you could imagine.

However, the 2010-2011 ski season was horrible for the traditionally snowy months of December and January. I remember going up to Alpental early in the season and making the mistake of trying to ski in a run that is better skied when there is a lot of snow, as the snow covers a creek bed that is full in the spring and summer. Long story short, I couldn't straight run the creek bed because it was too long, too steep, and too scary, so I tried to side-slip it. Of course, it was very narrow, and I got to a point where my skis were stuck between the edges of the bed. It took some slick maneuvering to get me out of that sticky predicament, and I decided to avoid that run for the rest of the day.

The ski season last year really took off in the spring. We were seeing a pattern very similar to what we are seeing now, with tons of springtime snowfall in the mountains. I should have gone up then, and given that creek bed another shot! It would have been a breeze.

This ski season is turning out to be very similar to last year's ski season. December and January were pretty bad months for snowfall, although the burst of snowfall here in the lowlands in January also brought a lot of snow to the mountains and helped give us a little breathing room. I honestly can't remember how February was in the mountains, but March has been incredible. And in the next couple days, we will pile up several more feet of snow in the mountains.

Let's take a look at the current watches, advisories, and warnings over our area.

There are winter storm warnings AND avalanche warnings in both the Cascades and Olympics (but when there are both, the map only shows the winter storm warnings). There is also a flood warning on the Skykomish River for minor flooding, but the main story here is the snow. One to two feet are forecast starting at 3 A.M. this morning and ending at 6 P.M. this afternoon. The NWS said that the snow level is likely to be at 3,500 feet and remain above Snoqualmie Pass, but Snoqualmie Pass is seeing snow now, so I'd say that the snow level is at around 3,100 feet. The snow isn't sticking to the pavement at Snoqualmie as much as it is at higher passes, like Stevens, though, so if you need to go through the Cascades, Snoqualmie Pass is your best bet.

Let's take a look at our ole' trusty WRF-GFS 24 hour snowfall map, starting at 5 A.M. this morning.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Fri, 30 Mar 2012 - 24hr Fcst - UW 4km 12z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

One to two feet of snow in the Cascades, with less around Snoqualmie Pass. Snoqualmie Pass has still seen around 8 inches of new snow since this morning though since the snow level is a little bit lower than forecast.

We'll get an even better shot at mountain snow this coming weekend. Snow levels will be pretty low - around 1,500 feet - so Snoqualmie Pass will definitely see snow this time and travel will be affected over all the mountain passes. AND, the snow won't be too heavy for all you skiers out there. I'm telling ya, this weekend is gonna be epic.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Fri, 30 Mar 2012 - 24hr Fcst - UW 4km 12z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

The extended forecast continues to look wetter and cooler than normal. So enjoy the rain, head up to the slopes. and take some Vitamin D tablets if you must.


Wednesday, March 28, 2012


Wednesday, March 28, 2012
10:53 A.M.

Photo Credit: Jenni Whalen

So, I was talking a peek at the weather models this morning, and unfortunately, this morning's runs look even wetter than before! I'm not complaining, as this will be great for our mountain snowpack, but it is sure to be an inconvenience for many around here.

Let's take a look at the extracted GFS temperature and precipitation for both Seattle and Portland. These screenshots are courtesy of Brian Schmit, who made the program. I entered the comments.

Portland looks to get soaked during this period. Seven inches of rain is a TON of rain. However, one should be careful when reading this extracted data, as the GFS model often overestimates rainfall for Portland due to it not picking up the effects of shadowing from the coast range. The big GFS model (as opposed to our WRF-GFS models at the UW) lacks the resolution to get great estimates of temperature and precipitation for specific locales. It also commonly underestimates high temperatures. Nevertheless, I would expect at least four inches of rain for Portland over the next two weeks, and possibly more. The snow will continue to pile up in the mountains.

The run for Seattle pretty much tells the same story. It is not quite as wet, as the big GFS model is better at accounting for the rain shadow from the Olympics than the rain shadow for the Coast Range in Northwest Oregon, but it is still pretty darn wet and cool. There is that odd 61 degree day, which just goes to show you how unpredictable a model is after around 5 days.

Bottom line: we will be wet and cool for at least the next week and possibly beyond.

Snowfall in the Cascades? You betcha!


Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Entering a Period of Stormy Weather

Tuesday, March 27, 2011
6:31 P.M.

Today, I was woken up my multiple birds chirping right at my window. It was wonderful, and even though they woke me up way too early (my first class is at 11:30 on Tuesdays), I really appreciated them.  I even personally thanked the birds, but seeing as it was 7:00 AM, I fell right back asleep.

I'm no ornithologist, but it seems to me that the birds chirp more when it is sunny. I'm predicting below-average bird chirping for the rest of the week.

The first storm of the week is impacting us right now, and it's not forecast to be super strong. But as the diagram above shows, we could be in for some hardcore action Wednesday night and Thursday. Take a look at the model below.

Valid 02:00 am PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 33hr Fcst - UW 36km 00z WRF-GFS 3-hour precip, SLP

You can see a well-defined front off the Washington coast. This front will give moderately heavy rain in the lowlands (around a half inch for most places), with heavier amounts of precipitation on the coast and in the mountains. Snow levels may initially be above the passes, but they will quickly fall below 3,000 feet, meaning all passes will see gobs of snow from this storm.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 48hr Fcst - UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

Widespread amounts of 6-12 inches in the Cascades, with some places receiving much more. And the snow will continue for the rest of the week. By Sunday, Snoqualmie Pass will probably have picked up 2-4 feet of snow.

This pattern looks to hold for at least the next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it holds on for even longer. La Nina commonly brings cool, wet springs with tons of mountain snow. I'm looking to spend some time looking at the cherry blossoms in the quad, but I'll definitely have to look at the radar before heading out, because it will be pretty busy for the next week.

Have a g00d one!!!

Monday, March 26, 2012

New Quarter, Old Weather

Monday, March 26, 2012
10:34 A.M.

UW Quad: 3/22/2012

UW Quad: 3/24/2012

Both of these photos were taken from

It's a new quarter at UW. It's springtime in the northern hemisphere. The cherry blossons in the Quad are blooming. And, as of 10:47 A.M., the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up precisely 129.00 points. Everything is happy in the Pacific Northwest.

Except the weather.

We had a very nice stretch of weather over the weekend. Saturday and Sunday featured light winds, temperatures well into the upper 50s, and a few high clouds overhead. I hope you savored these days, though, because they'll be the last warm days we will see for a while.

You see, springtime in the Pacific Northwest is unpredictable. The sun can rise high in the sky and give you a high of 50 after a brief snow shower in the morning. I remember one spring day in 2007 when I saw heavy graupel, almost got struck by lightning (don't even get me started on this one), and saw a weak tornado form and touch down right before my very eyes. If you take a look at the ensemble chart below, you'll see just how hard it is to predict springtime weather in the Pacific Northwest. Comment courtesy of Greg Carstens.

This chart shows the different GFS ensemble members, and the operational, ensemble mean, and control models are highlighted. The climatology for the season is highlighted in red. As you can see, we have some pretty good agreement up to March 29th, with a few periods of light precipitation and near normal temperatures. Take a look at the upper-level 500mb vorticity chart of the 12z WRF-GFS initialization at 5 A.M. this morning.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Mon, 26 Mar 2012 - UW 36km 12z WRF-GFS 500mb vorticity, heights

If you look at the height lines over our area at this point, you'll see that there is a trough offshore and a ridge over our area. There may be a thermal trough down in Oregon as well. But the main thing here is that the flow over our area is light, and we are not seeing much in the way of weather. We do not have a super strong ridge overhead, and we do not have a strong zonal flow, which is generally indicative of stormy weather here.

But all of this is going to change.

Take a look at the same chart a mere 36 hours later. The trough has shifted towards us and is directing cooler air into our region.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Tue, 27 Mar 2012 - 36hr Fcst

But it gets even worse. The dreaded strong zonal flow will begin to impact our area, bringing with it rain and windy conditions, particularly for the coast. Take a look at the chart 72 hours in advance.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 72hr Fcst - UW 36km 12z WRF-GFS 500mb vorticity, heights

I'm not going to give you the details right now because if you remember that ensemble chart above, there are lots of variations between the models. I also gotta find out where my math class is. But one thing is clear. We will remain cool, wet, and windy down here in the lowlands for the coming week, particularly for the latter half of it.

As for the mountains? Expect 2-4 feet of snow by Saturday. Don't put away those skis yet. :)


Monday, March 12, 2012

Trends in Extreme Weather Events Due to Global Warming

Monday, March 12, 2012
1:26 P.M.

Hi everybody, I recently finished writing a short essay about extreme weather events due to global warming, so I thought I'd post it here. It's not too long or science-heavy and it took me a little over a day to write. Let me know what you think!


         Much of current climate science pertaining to anthropogenic global warming focuses on averaged changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and other factors. The 2007 IPCC conference, though comprehensive, was dominated by the discussion of the broad, long-term repercussions of global warming such as the decrease of summer arctic sea ice extent and increases in sea level due to ice sheets melting worldwide. Among the most impactful effects of global warming on society, however, are not these long-term averages, but the extreme events that come with them. Previous research by many climate scientists has shown that global warming will, on average, not only cause an increase in the number of record-breaking events but in the severity of them as well. I will focus on the changes that will be expected in the number and extremity of three specific types of extreme weather: heat waves, hurricanes, and tornadoes.
A plethora of previous research has been done on these extreme events; Tyler Ruff and David Neelin have done extensive research using Gaussian curves to prove that even a small increase in mean temperature can have drastic consequences for the frequency and strength of major heat waves. Kevin Trenberth’s research shows a mixed picture for hurricanes; hurricanes are predicted to increase in intensity due to warmer SST (sea surface temperatures) and a moistening of the lower troposphere, but their individual tracks are uncertain, meaning that it is hard to know at this point if highly populated places like the U.S. coastline will see an increased number of hurricanes or if hurricanes will trend away from the U.S. coast. Although 2011 was a record-breaking year for tornadoes and 2012 is off to a fast start, Diffenbaugh, Trapp, and Brooks attest that it is difficult to forecast any future trends at this time due to seasonal variability, subjective tornado data, and unclear model predictions. However, some conclusions about what the future may hold for tornadoes can still be made, and these authors stress that much more research needs to be done on the subject. Indeed, many of the mechanisms that cause extreme weather events are poorly understood, but we still have a wealth of information to draw reasonable and scientifically sound predictions on future extreme meteorological events. It is essential that we understand the predicted effects the future greenhouse climate so that we, as a society, can prevent catastrophic losses of life and property due to extreme events in the future.
            Nearly all of the scientific community believes that anthropogenic global warming is real, but there are differences in opinion regarding the exact effects of anthropogenic global warming on the frequency and severity of extreme events, particularly for specific regions. Climate models are the main tools used to predict future extreme events, and although climate science is far from intuitive, many of the results shown by the models are similar to what would be expected based on our current knowledge of how weather works. For example, climate models pick up on the fact that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing causes enhanced tropospheric temperature, and they go even further to forecast that increases in temperature lead to increases in the amount of water vapor in the air and enhanced precipitation rates as a result. Additionally, confidence in models is increased through their agreement with observed changes in Earth’s climate. Many models have forecast an increase in the intensity of rainfall events and an increase in the severity of heat waves, and these forecasts have been validated by recent observations in many parts of the world (Easterling, 2000). Unfortunately, climate models are continually hampered by the relative lack of data in certain regions of the world for optimal model initialization and the lack of computing power to increase model resolution. These two problems make it difficult for scientists to predict the tendencies of extreme events in the future greenhouse climate for specific regions.
            Short-term climate records of extreme events are also very important for scientists aiming to forecast the tendency of extreme events. These records only extend 150-200 years back in many parts of the U.S., but they provide the detailed information needed for the historical analysis and future forecasting of short-duration extreme events. Many of these records show trends in themselves; northern California and southern Oregon have shown a decrease in extreme flooding and wind events from extratropical cyclones over the past 50 years, while northern Oregon and Washington have seen an increase in these events. Coupling these observed climate trends with model output helps scientists gain insight into the particular climate trends in certain regions, especially if the climate models and observations show strong similarities in terms of extreme events.


Ruff and Neelin propose that although many localities have Gaussian distributions of temperature extremes, there are many places that have non-Gaussian “tails” of temperature distribution, and that these tails play a huge role in determining the future for extreme temperature events in a particular locale. The figure to the left shows the distribution of the probabilities of three temperature variables:  Tmax (the daily maximum) Tavg (the daily average), and Tmin (the daily minimum) over a Gaussian curve. Graph (a) shows the distribution over June, July, and August, and graph (b) shows the distribution over December, January, and February. This input data was derived from the synoptic/hourly observations contained in U.S. Air Force DATSAV3 Surface data and Federal Climate Complex Integrated Surface Data (Lott et al., 2008).
The asymmetry of these curves shows us that a uniform mean increase in temperature throughout several different regions does not necessarily correspond to a uniform distribution of record-breaking temperature events. An increase of 2 degrees Celsius could have profound effects on the strength and occurrence of heat waves in Phoenix while having little impact on the heat waves in Los Angeles. If the mean temperature is increased and the Gaussian curve is shifted to the right, the occurrence of future extreme temperature events increases at different rates for different regions. Locations with high-side tails that are roughly Gaussian, such as Phoenix and Houston in the summer, will see a large increase in the number of extreme heat events if the curve is shifted to the right because the slope of the curve at the ends is very steep and therefore very sensitive to a slight change in the mean temperature. Long Beach and Los Angeles may see the same mean warming effect, but because the tails at these locations for maximum temperature are long and have a more gradual slope, the increase in instances where a given high threshold value is exceeded will be proportionately lower than those experienced in Phoenix and Houston. Additionally, because places like Los Angeles and Long Beach already have strong heat waves in the summer that depart from the average temperature, they likely have the infrastructure in place to deal with an increased number of these events in the future. Places with curves like Phoenix and Houston do not experience such a range of extreme heat waves during the summer, and therefore likely lack the infrastructure to deal with a sharp increase in the severity and number of particularly hot periods in the summer. The curves for winter temperatures suggest that there will be a relatively gradual decline in the occurrences of extreme cold events but a sharp increase in wintertime warm events. In order to predict the risks from increasing average temperature in a given location, applying known Gaussian curves and the exponential tails that often come with them is necessary.


            It is safe to say that there will be an increase in extreme temperature events under global warming, but it is harder to draw conclusions to the number and strength of hurricanes forecast in a future greenhouse climate. It would seem intuitive that the warmer sea-surface-temperatures (SST) forecast due to global warming would fuel a greater number of hurricanes, but this isn’t necessarily the case. Greg Holland and Peter Webster found in their “Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend?” paper that there was an increase in the number of observed storms in the North Atlantic basin over the past century, but this was quickly refuted by Chris Landsea’s “Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900,” which states that the observed increase in hurricanes is due to improved monitoring via satellites and other instruments over the past century. Even if the Atlantic has seen an anomalous period of enhanced hurricane activity recently, it is hard to know if this activity is due to global warming or is simply the result of decadal oscillations and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation).
            Kevin Trenberth makes an important distinction between the differences in the number of tropical cyclones and the number of intense hurricanes. Tropical cyclones form when a group of tropical thunderstorms develops an axis of rotation, and the main obstacle they face to forming is wind shear, which can tear these thunderstorms apart before they can organize and become a stronger system. Once a tropical system has formed, though, it derives its energy from warm, moist air over a warm ocean that is at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit for up to 150 feet in depth. The effects of global warming on wind shear are not yet known, but climate models increase SST over nearly every world region, and these predictions have been verified in observed trends throughout the world. It is unclear if hurricanes will increase in number, but they are forecast to increase in intensity.
            These forecast increases in intensity have been verified by Kerry Emanuel in his 2005 paper “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years.” Emanuel plotted the PDI, or “Power Dissipation Index,” which measures the total energy that a hurricane releases over a year, and the increases in SST over the past 90 years and found a closely correlated increase in both PDI and SST over the past 30 years, even though he admits that the number of hurricanes in most regions around the world has stayed relatively constant.
The figure to the right shows the PDI and averaged SST in the North Atlantic. The increase in the power dissipation index is either because the storms have become more intense or lasted longer (or both). The duration of storms in both the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific has increased by around 60 percent since 1949, and the average peak wind speed for storms has also increased by 50 percent. Stronger storms usually live longer, because it takes them more time to obtain a certain high wind speed and takes them longer to dissipate from this peak. This figure additionally shows that SST and PDI are strongly correlated, and that SST is much more important for the strengthening of hurricanes than wind shear in the atmosphere. In conclusion, it is hard to know if there will be an increase in the number of hurricanes, but if models are correct and trends continue, we will likely see an increase in the number of major, destructive hurricanes in the future.


2011 was the most was one of the most prolific years on record for tornados and was capped off by one of the greatest natural disasters in the history of the U.S. – the April 25-28th 2011 Super Outbreak. While it is even more difficult to forecast how tornadoes will change in severity in a warmer climate than hurricanes, it is very important to attempt to do so, as major tornado outbreaks have major consequences in the U.S. and abroad.
            The diagram on the next page shows an increasing trend in the number of tornado reports and a flat or even slightly downward trend in the number of F2 to F5 tornadoes. These observations should be taken with a grain of salt, however, because they are likely not indicative of major changes in tornado activity. As the U.S. observational network has expanded, more and more weak tornadoes are being reported now than ever before. Most significant (F2-F5) tornadoes were observed and recorded in earlier decades, but the decrease in them is most likely due to subtle changes in strength ratings as time goes forward (Diffenbaugh, Trapp, and Brooks, 2008). Because tornadoes are rated via a human-based assessment of damage, it is hard to set a common definition for tornado strength, especially when the damage that a given strength of tornado can cause varies widely based on topography, terrain, and infrastructure of an affected region.

Even so, this data is useful in that tornado reports for a certain year can be applied to the climatological record for that year, and, through statistical models, be used to estimate what the tornado activity was like in a given year, but it will take a longer period of modern, detailed tornado observations to be able to outline clear trends in tornado activity.
Tornadoes spin out of supercell thunderstorms, which get their energy from CAPE (convective available potential energy) and get their rotation and longevity from wind shear. Global warming is expected to increase CAPE by increasing temperature and humidity within the atmospheric boundary layer while simultaneously decreasing vertical wind shear by weakening the meridional temperature gradient (Diffenbaugh, Trapp, and Brooks, 2008). These two changes may offset each other with regard to tornado frequency and intensity in many locations, but they are likely to significantly change tornado seasons and occurrences. The meridional temperature gradient is greatest during cold seasons, and increased CAPE year-round may lead to an increased number of tornadoes in the winter. Many models also shift the peak meridional temperature gradient and the associated mid-latitude jet stream northward under global warming, meaning that there may be a northward trend in peak tornado activity in the future. The limitations in current knowledge and model resolution at this time pose challenges to accurately predicting tornadoes, much more so than heat waves or hurricanes. To accurately predict trends in future tornado activity requires that models have enough resolution to account for local, small-scale features and the physics of thunderstorm growth within these regions, and this resolution will require massive amounts of computing resources. Forecasting changes in the prevalence and intensity of tornadoes for different regions is in its infant stage at this point, but as computing power increases and climate model resolution becomes finer, we should be able to see clearer predictions of what may happen.
High-impact extreme weather events from global warming are projected to increase in severity in many regions, but it is misleading to simply say that global warming will cause more extreme weather. Global warming is a worldwide problem, but the repercussions of it, particularly extreme weather events, are very region specific. Mesoscale climate modeling is necessary both to accurately predict extreme events for certain regions and the regional implications of these events.  Los Angeles should experience a slight increase in record-breaking heat waves, but Phoenix, 350 miles away, could experience many more in the future. Even though predicting hurricanes in the future climate requires more synoptic scale modeling, the effects of extreme hurricanes for certain regions, such as New Orleans, need to be modeled with high resolution. The University of Washington has taken some steps with its WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) climate models, but for the rest of the country, an increase in resolution is necessary to determine the regional implications of extreme weather due to global warming.

Works Cited:

Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J., Trapp, R., & Giorgi, F. (2005). Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to climate change. PNAS, 102(44), 15774-15778. Retrieved from

Diffenbaugh, N. S., Trapp, R. J., & Brooks, H. (2008). Does global warming influence tornado activity?.American Geophysical Union, 89(53), 553-560. Retrieved from

Easterling, D. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289(5487), 2068-2074. Retrieved from

Holland, G. J., & Webster, P. J. (2007). Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the north atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend?. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A365(1860), 2695-2716. Retrieved from html

Landsea, C. W. (2007). Counting atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900. American Geophysical Union,88(18), 197-208. Retrieved from

Lubchenco, J., & Karl, T. R. (2012). Predicting and managing extreme weather events. Physics Today,65, 31-37. Retrieved from

Ruff, T. W. and J. D. Neelin (2012), Long tails in regional surface temperature probability distributions with implications for extremes under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04704, doi:10.1029/2011GL050610.

Trenberth, K. (2005). Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming. Science, 308(1753), 1753-1754. Retrieved from


Thanks for reading!
I've already turned my paper in,but if you have any suggestions for my writing, let me know!

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Almost Done with Finals

Saturday, March 10, 2012
10:05 P.M.

Hey everybody. I've done a horrible job maintaining this blog, but at least I have a good excuse. College is fun, trust me, but the classes I'm taking are...

And by good I mean hard as hell.

Alas, it is "dead week."

From Urban Dictionary:

"The week before finals are administered and most major projects and assignments are due for submission. The late night working and hardcore studying for finals gives the students a zombie like atmosphere, and causes an eerie silence and many blank, unseeing expressions."

Some would argue that it is no longer dead week since I have completed a final. That is an untrue statement. More work is on the horizon. On the other hand, the work I am doing is on extreme weather events due to global warming. I'll be sure to post my essay on this blog after I am done with it, or I can re-write it in a more blog-friendly tone.

But after Wednesday, forecasts galore.
Hang in there!