A Thank You to KOMO 4

Tuesday, December 31, 2013
7:52 a.m.

 

I can't imagine a happier workplace.

Yes, that's how good KOMO has been to me. Every Wednesday and Friday this quarter, I looked forward to coming here. I knew I was going to have a great time with Steve Pool, and Shannon O'Donnell, and I did have a great time... greater than I could have ever imagined. But I didn't know I'd be developing relationships with Dan Lewis, Connie Thompson, and many of the other employees you see both on tv and behind the scenes. Yesterday, I got a lecture from one of the employees letting me know that I had stood behind anchor Molly Shen during the 4 p.m. show and the camera was catching me staring at her. One time, I realized two minutes before one of the main five or six o'clock weather segments started that I hadn't loaded the show up for Steve, and by the time he was on air, the show still wasn't completely loaded and he had to improvise. About halfway through his cut, the show fully loaded and he was able to run through it. He gave me a lecture, not a stern one though, and just laughed it off. You gotta screw up to learn how not to screw up, right?

I can have another quarter here, but I have to make way for the interns that are seniors. Remember, I'm only a junior. The minimum class standing for interns here is junior status, so I buzzed right in here as soon as I could. So I'm done for the rest of this year in order to let these seniors get a chance to do what I did. I'm definitely going to look into seeing if I can do other work here though that doesn't interfere with other interns (for example, on weekends) and I'm going to see if I can do anything with other stations. The tv meteorologists all know each other and Shannon used to work for KING, so maybe we can figure something out. It's always good to expose yourself to a variety of environments.

One thing's for sure though. I had the time of my life here. I'm still not sure if I want to be a tv meteorologist, but I'm more inclined to than before. Also, I shared a misconception that I think is held by much of the general population; that tv meteorologists are just pretty faces that don't know anything about the atmosphere. NOT TRUE. Steve doesn't have an atmospheric science degree, but he knows his stuff. Shannon has a degree, and she REALLY knows her stuff. These are real forecasters and real meteorologists. They are not reading off a teleprompter... everything is improvised. You have to know what you are talking about in order to do that.

I came in early today... 5:20 a.m. early... to work with Seth Wayne, the morning forecaster, and like Shannon vs. Steve, he has his own way about doing things, but just like both of them, he is incredibly nice and professional. It was a joy working with him this morning.

I can see why Steve has been KOMO's lead forecaster since 1984. This is a place where I feel comfortable. I don't want to leave, but at the same time, I'm gracious for the opportunity I was given, and I'm stoked, yes, STOKED, that others will get the same chance as me. It's just awesome. There's nothing like it.

If you want to go to KOMO or get a tour, contact me. I can hook you up.

Thank you so much everybody! Mom, dad, everybody at KOMO, all my friends for reading my blogs, it's been fantastic. I'll see you sometime soon!

Charlie =D

The Truth About My Snow Forecast

Saturday, December 21, 2013

11:32 a.m.

It wasn't that good.

Simon Cowell is giving me the thumbs down: http://tinyviolets.wordpress.com/category/music/

What?

I think my elitist response yesterday was an insecure attempt to retain my position as Seattle's best snow forecaster. For this snow event, that wasn't true. I was calling for what the models were showing... 2-6 inches of snow, with amounts mainly in the 2-4 inch range but a couple spots hitting 6 inches. Cliff Mass also called for 2-4 inches in the Seattle area. The National Weather Service, on the other hand, was calling for 1-3 inches over all of the lowlands, and they were dead on and they were much much closer. Nearly everywhere got between 1-3 inches. Fantastic work by the National Weather Service, because places north of Seattle looked like they could get 4+ inches based on the model initialized only 12 hours behind the actual event. Amazing.

What I was proud of was my radar interpolation of the incoming precipitation. I neglected to do some research to find out that the NWS had it right all along.

So here's the rating.

1. National Weather Service

2. Charlie Phillips

3. Cliff Mass

* I put myself ahead of Cliff because of my extra interpolation work. His initial forecast may have been ever so slightly more accurate than mine.

So screw the ego. I'm not always the best snow forecaster. 

OK, well I'm almost always the best snow forecaster. I'll get 'em next time. ;)

Charlie

Less Snow than Forecast

Friday, December 20, 2013

7:43 a.m.

Where's the glacier?

We got significantly less snow than forecast. I'm actually super proud of myself... I called this before several others, including but not limited to Cliff Mass and the Seattle NWS. That takes skill! (and a fair amount of luck)

As evidence, here was my Facebook status at 4:17.

I'm awake in my room after my alarm went off because I'm that much of a nerd. It's 4:17, and there is very light snow in the U-District. Heavier snow is on the way... you'll definitely notice it by 6. There is currently a light dusting on the cars.

I have to say, based on comparison of radar and 00z WRF-GFS model shots, this system looks to be taking a track further north than forecast, which would give Seattle less snow. We will see...

Here's what I saw. Look at the radar at 4 a.m., and look at the total predicted past 1-hour precip ending at 4 a.m.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 12hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_pcp1+2013122000///1

See how the precipitation on the radar is ever so slightly north than it was modeled on last night's run? Man I'm good. The National Weather Service was still sticking to their original forecast in their 3 a.m. forecast discussion. Granted, I had an extra hour 90 minutes, but still. I may have not nailed this event on the button well in advance (no one did), but when it came to short-range forecasting, I knocked it out of the park.

Snow will continue to fall up north. Guys north of Everett are gonna get the 2-6 inches Seattle was supposed to get. Things will transition to rain just after noon.

Time and time again, it has been shown that I am hands-down the best snow forecaster in Seattle. I'm humble about it too; I take my position with great grace.

Have fun in the inch or so there is!

Charlie

Oh Heck Yeah!

Thursday, December 19, 2013

8:32 p.m.

OK, so when I saw the latest model run, I absolutely jumped for joy. Why? Because the newest WRF-GFS model run upped the forecast snow amounts. At first, this model gave us a lot of snow, but then it sharply pulled back. Now, it’s trending whiter again. Let’s take a look at how this trending has turned out.

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 48hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_wa_snow3+2013121900///3

This was last night's run, and was as close to a Snowmageddon as the models ever came to showing. Half a foot just to the north of Seattle? Please sir, may I have another? 

But then came this morning's run. I cried.

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 36hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_wa_snow24+2013121912///3

Snow amounts decreased three-fold over north Seattle. Those poor folks in Tacoma weren't getting any. I got over myself fairly quickly... this was never expected to be the snow event of the century, and I honestly didn't even think it was gonna happen... but still. It's like walking out of a test feeling great about your performance, and then seeing that you failed it. OK, maybe not failed it, but didn't perform as well as you thought you would.

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 24hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_wa_snow24+2013122000///3

Then came this evening's run (and the numbers are still rolling in). It definitely wasn't as good as last night's run, but it was significantly better than this morning's run. There's that 6-inch bulls-eye over North Seattle. In any event, things look snowy tomorrow morning, especially from Northern Seattle northward. Kids - don't do your homework.

By the way, this snow event is brought to you by evaporative cooling. When the atmosphere is dry like it is right now, it acts like a "sponge" in that it absorbs some precipitation that falls from the sky. It takes energy to evaporate this precipitation and turn it into water vapor - heat energy - and this cools the atmosphere. If the atmosphere was moist, we'd be talking about a cold rain.

You can see that the moisture starts to come in around 4 a.m.

Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 12hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_pcp3+2013122000///3

By 7 a.m., it has solidly engulfed our area.

Valid 07:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 15hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_pcp3+2013122000///3

This model says the front will pass through Western Washington from south to north during mid-morning and probably cross Seattle around 10 a.m. Afterwards, it looks like some precipitation may keep falling in the form of rain as showers and a possible convergence zone set up. Showers will be sparse in nature up north, and Seattle and the central Puget Sound region will probably be shadowed by the Olympics. The westerly flow behind the front will be VERY conducive, however, to orographic snowfall in the Cascades, so hopefully the Summit and Snoqualmie can open before too long. All in all, I'm not expecting too much rain, which is a good thing, because rain on snow is just really, really depressing.

Southern Washington, however, will receive more rain. The same thing goes for Oregon. With the exception of the Longview-Vancouver area perhaps picking up an inch, however, the snowfall doesn't look to be all that spectacular. Excepting that region, Olympia southward to Salem look to pick up trace amounts.

I'll probably wake up early to see the snow and/or I'll stay up late to see what happens, either by choice or by instinct. Either way, I'll keep you posted.

At this point, my LAWES rating is 5.3d

5 = 80-100% chance of snow with snow observed in area (Victoria, BC earlier this evening)
.3 = 2-6 inches of snow
d = 3 or more models consistent

Have a good one folks!
Charlie

Snow Update

Wednesday, December 18, 2013
11:26 a.m.

I was pretty happy when I saw the UW's WRF-GFS model this morning.

http://replygif.net/941

I wasn't quite stunned. If that was the case, this would be my reaction.

http://www.reddit.com/r/pictureswithspongebob

But hey, I'll take what I can get. This run was an improvement over yesterday's runs. I'm still a little skeptical for the same reason as I said in the previous post, as snow levels will be RIGHT on the edge, but the models have been pretty consistent, and as I inferred in the previous post, models can catch your eye, especially when the event is less than 48 hours out.

That being said, let's look at the setup.

Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 48hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_thick+//84/3

One thing we look at when making a forecast for snow is the thickness of the atmosphere. The colder the atmosphere, the denser it is, and the lesser the distance between pressure levels (the 1000-500 mb/hPa levels in this map). The warmer the atmosphere, the thicker it is. The highest thicknesses appear at the center of hurricanes, where the air is extremely warm throughout the atmosphere. Around Seattle, we generally need thicknesses to be around ~522 to start talking about snow. Here, they are 543. So how is this same model still forecasting snow?

Well, the upper atmosphere may be warming, but this moisture is forecast to arrive right in the early morning hours, when temperatures are the coldest at the surface.

Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 48hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+//84/3

Another thing - Thursday is expected to be mainly cloudy, but the clouds look to decrease Thursday night. This keeps the temperatures down during the day and lets radiational cooling take over at night. It's like a 1-2 punch.

That's the thing though. This situation is SO dependent on timing. If things get shifted by a couple hours, then the lower atmosphere will likely be too warm, and we'll just get rain. Right now, the timing looks PERFECT - the precipitation starts to come in at 4 a.m. That means the models are showing the best-case scenario. But let's not think about that. :)

Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 48hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_pcp3+//84/3

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 60hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_ww_snow24+///3

Not too bad, eh? Three inches of snow over Seattle. If you want more, go north to the Everett area. If you want a lot more, go to the mountains. If you want less, go south. And if you don't want any, swim to China.

Now, the moment, you've all been waiting for... my LAWES rating.

4.2b

Meaning a snow event within 3 days with up to 4 inches of snow with one consistent model showing it. Other models besides the WRF-GFS are also showing snow, but I decided not to include them because they are not showing as much.

This event, save perhaps a snowy Puget Sound Convergence Zone, is the hardest type of snow event to predict here in Western Washington.

Yay.

Charlie