Saturday, December 21, 2013

The Truth About My Snow Forecast

Saturday, December 21, 2013
11:32 a.m.

It wasn't that good.

Simon Cowell is giving me the thumbs down:


I think my elitist response yesterday was an insecure attempt to retain my position as Seattle's best snow forecaster. For this snow event, that wasn't true. I was calling for what the models were showing... 2-6 inches of snow, with amounts mainly in the 2-4 inch range but a couple spots hitting 6 inches. Cliff Mass also called for 2-4 inches in the Seattle area. The National Weather Service, on the other hand, was calling for 1-3 inches over all of the lowlands, and they were dead on and they were much much closer. Nearly everywhere got between 1-3 inches. Fantastic work by the National Weather Service, because places north of Seattle looked like they could get 4+ inches based on the model initialized only 12 hours behind the actual event. Amazing.

What I was proud of was my radar interpolation of the incoming precipitation. I neglected to do some research to find out that the NWS had it right all along.

So here's the rating.

1. National Weather Service
2. Charlie Phillips
3. Cliff Mass

* I put myself ahead of Cliff because of my extra interpolation work. His initial forecast may have been ever so slightly more accurate than mine.

So screw the ego. I'm not always the best snow forecaster. 

OK, well I'm almost always the best snow forecaster. I'll get 'em next time. ;)


1 comment:

  1. Charlie, you are by far the most entertaining forecaster. Couple that with your high accuracy and you are bumped to the top of the list!