Friday, December 20, 2013

Less Snow than Forecast

Friday, December 20, 2013
7:43 a.m.

Where's the glacier?

We got significantly less snow than forecast. I'm actually super proud of myself... I called this before several others, including but not limited to Cliff Mass and the Seattle NWS. That takes skill! (and a fair amount of luck)

video

As evidence, here was my Facebook status at 4:17.

I'm awake in my room after my alarm went off because I'm that much of a nerd. It's 4:17, and there is very light snow in the U-District. Heavier snow is on the way... you'll definitely notice it by 6. There is currently a light dusting on the cars.

I have to say, based on comparison of radar and 00z WRF-GFS model shots, this system looks to be taking a track further north than forecast, which would give Seattle less snow. We will see...



Here's what I saw. Look at the radar at 4 a.m., and look at the total predicted past 1-hour precip ending at 4 a.m.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml
Valid 04:00 am PST, Fri 20 Dec 2013 - 12hr Fcst: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_pcp1+2013122000///1

See how the precipitation on the radar is ever so slightly north than it was modeled on last night's run? Man I'm good. The National Weather Service was still sticking to their original forecast in their 3 a.m. forecast discussion. Granted, I had an extra hour 90 minutes, but still. I may have not nailed this event on the button well in advance (no one did), but when it came to short-range forecasting, I knocked it out of the park.

Snow will continue to fall up north. Guys north of Everett are gonna get the 2-6 inches Seattle was supposed to get. Things will transition to rain just after noon.

Time and time again, it has been shown that I am hands-down the best snow forecaster in Seattle. I'm humble about it too; I take my position with great grace.

Have fun in the inch or so there is!
Charlie

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