Latest on Seasonal Forecast

Wednesday, October 12, 2011
11:59 A.M.

Taken from "The International Research Institute for Climate and Society" (IRI)

These models all show the forecast SST for the Nino 3.4 region every month, and you can clearly see that most of the models predict cooler than normal temperatures in Nino 3.4. Cooler SST temperatures in the Eastern Pacific indicate La Nina conditions. Also, the table below shows the individual model outputs, since it can be hard to make out everything on the above chart.

Taken from "The International Research Institute for Climate and Society" (IRI)

The general indication from these models is that this La Nina will be weaker than last year's. However, the NCEP CFS model has been particularly accurate in forecasting La Nina conditions, and it is forecasting some moderate to perhaps strong conditions this winter. I have been looking at the SST in the tropical Pacific (check out my "Tropical Pacific SST" link) and I have noticed that our La Nina has slowly but steadily been strengthening, so I am forecasting tropical Pacific SST anomalies similar to the ones the CFS is showing.

Because a La Nina is expected, the Climate Prediction Center has forecast a wetter and cooler than normal winter for the Pacific Northwest. Below, I show the temperature and precipitation outlooks all the way out to one year. Pay special attention to the winter months though. You can enlarge the pictures by clicking on them.

Temperature

Precipitation

In general, wetter and cooler conditions than normal can be expected in the northern tier of the country, with warmer and drier weather south. Unfortunately, Texas will likely still experience drought conditions.

It would be interesting to study the relationship between ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and Global Warming. It seems like we haven't had many neutral years lately!

Thanks for stopping by!

Charlie