Monday Storm

Friday, September 23, 2011
12:10 A.M.

Hi everybody, I just moved into my dorm today. The weather system coming in for next Monday looks significantly different in the models from what it looked just a day ago. Whereas the models before showed a large front sitting over the area and giving us heavy rain, the new models show a front that would likely give us less rain but has the potential for fairly breezy conditions. There definitely isn't anything to be worried about, and these winds will not cause damage unless the forecast changes drastically. However, locations on the north Washington coast could get fairly windy, with the windiest conditions likely being around Tattoosh Island.

Overall, this new storm is weaker. The earlier forecasts showed the Olympics getting pounded with over 6 inches of rain in spots, with the potential for up to 10 inches in isolated, orographically-favored locations. Now, they'll be lucky to get three inches. Seattle was forecast to receive over an inch, and now we'll be lucky if we see a half inch.

But take a look at some of the winds...

Valid 08:00 am PDT Mon, 26 Sep 2011 - 87hr Fcst - UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 10-meter winds

You can see some high winds near the coast. Puget Sound will not have high winds. If this storm was further south, we could have some action.

This is a radically different system than was forecast a day ago, and it is common for forecasts to be inconsistent this time of the year. Often, tropical moisture gets imbedded in the westerlies, and that has proven to be a challenge for the models. The forecast will probably change again, though it has become more consistent lately.

It's late! Time to go to bed.

Charlie