November 17, 2009
I tend to either get a lot of things accomplished during the month of November or not very many things at all. The distinction between the two lies in one thing; weather. When it's sunny outside, I just want to go outside and play, or I can't concentrate because I'm desperately looking for something interesting in the models so I don't die of boredom. But when there is a big storm headed our way, I can't concentrate at all (for obvious reasons). Looking at this storm slated for late Wednesday into early Friday, I think I will be able to get a lot of work done and work productively. It will definitely keep me inside, but it doesn't look so strong that all I'll be doing is looking at wind observations and not reading about Henry Clay and the American System. Rain is always huge when it comes to studying and really makes it or breaks it; if there is a strong, steady rain throughout the day, trust me, you'll get a lot of work done. I know I have.
This storm looks to be very strong, with heavy precipitation (5-10 inches Olympics, 3-6 inches North Cascades) once again in the mountains and moderate precipiation in the lowlands (about an inch). There is a bit of a dilemma for the forecast; one American model, the NAM, which is generally a little less accurate, brings a fair amount of rain to the our area, with 1-2 inches in the Puget Sound lowlands but only 3-6 in the Olympics and less than that in the Northern Cascades. The GFS, however, brings about a half inch of rain to the area, but much heavier rain to the SW slopes of the Olympic mountains, where the stalled out front (called the "baroclinic band" in meteorology) will be located.
In either event, high winds will occur on the coast, with gusts to 70 there, and in the north interior, with gusts to 60 there. Again, the Seattle area will be spared for the most part but we will still see gusts in the 30-40 mile per hour range.
It looks right now like we will see another storm Saturday and another one Monday, but these don't look to be too major. I have to read up on some early American literature right now but I'll have a more meteorological forecast discussion tomorrow.
Have a good night!