What Does the Model Say?

Saturday, September 28, 2013
10:49 p.m.

I'm sure many of you are familiar with Ylvis' international hit: "What Does the Fox Say?". I've heard the song once or twice, and that's one or two many times too many. The fox does not say "gering-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding" or "Wa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pow."

The fox goes "WAArra!!!" Everybody knows that. So what's with the annoying song?

A far better question is "what does the model say?" Here, we can look at the various models and interpret what they are saying. No need for any of that ring-a-ding-ding nonsense. However, because models make no sound, if one wanted to write a song about the varying statistical output of models, it would have to be called "What Does the Model-Watcher Say?". "I LIKE THE 500mb PATTERN" or "NEED MORE CAPE" (convective available potential energy) or "WHERE'S THE RAIN SHADOW" could be lyrics, and they'd make more sense than "What does the fox say (bass drop, cue jibberish)."

But this blog is in written form, not audio form, so we don't need to worry about any of those logistics. Let's take a look at what some of the models are saying.

First, let's look at some important differences in this evening's (00z) runs from those this morning (12z). The 'z' is just a synonym for UTC or GMT (Coordinated Universal Time or Greenwich Mean Time). The 12z MM5-NAM had a deeper low than the 00z, but the 00z WRF-GFS was stronger.

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Sorry for this brief change of subject, but the fraternity next door (Phi Kappa Sigma/Phi Pools/Pi Fools) just started playing that fox song. Let me get my earplugs real quick...

Alright... ear plugs are in. Back to weather stuff.

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The bigger differences were in the WRF-GFS, so let's compare those two real quick.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Sun 29 Sep 2013 - 36hr Fcst: temperature at 925 mb (C), SLP (hPa), 10-meter wind speed (knots).  UW WRF-GFS 12km Resolution: Initialized 12z Sat 28 Sep 2013. Retrieved from the (University of Washington) Pacific Northwest Environmental Forecasts and Observations website. Chart URL: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+2013092900//84/3

Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Sun 29 Sep 2013 - 24hr Fcst: temperature at 925 mb (C), SLP (hPa), 10-meter wind speed (knots).  UW WRF-GFS 12km Resolution: Initialized 00z Sun 29 Sep 2013. Retrieved from the (University of Washington) Pacific Northwest Environmental Forecasts and Observations website. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+2013092900//84/3

As you can see, the most recent run is much deeper and a tad further north. It gives high winds (gusts over 58 miles per hour) to the coast, northern interior, and Puget Sound from Seattle northward. This is an encouraging sign for high-wind lovers.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to the European model, but I do have access to the Canadian one. It is... to say the least.. smile-inducing.

The Canadian model brings a ~960 millibar low to southern Vancouver Island. This scenario would bring the highest winds in recent memory throughout Western Washington. It's an outlier at this point, but it's fun to look at.

What does this model-watcher say? BRING IT ON! Either way, us meteorological enthusiasts are gonna have a good time. Stay safe!!!

Chuckles