Sunday, November 21, 2010

Snow chances today and tomorrow

Sunday, November 21, 2010
12:28 P.M.

Hey guys. Some of you saw some snow flurries this morning. Some of you did not. It depends on where you live and your elevation. I say some flurries but no accumulation. It was pretty though.

Let's discuss snow probabilities. I read Cliff Mass' blog the other night and he said "forget about snow in Seattle, it's going to Oregon." He's probably right. The models which are usually more accurate (the Euro and GFS) have been showing this scenario, and they have been showing it consistently. The Canadian model has also been showing it as well. The latest 12z run of the UW 4 km GFS, our region's best model, shows absolutely no accumulating snow for Seattle (except traces).
Notice how there is a good amount of snow south of Olympia. But we don't get any.
However, the NAM model does paint a better picture for snow enthusiasts and school procrastinators around the region. It shows a bit of snow later today, maybe accumulating to an inch in spots, although most places will see no accumulation. The bigger story is the Puget Sound Convergence Zone that it is forecasting for Monday. The timing would be weird - it is forecast to occur during the morning of the school day. But it might deliver a few solid inches of snow to the area if it does verify. However, the NAM has not been consistent, and the GFS is the preferred model here. Sorry guys.
However, as you can see, through 4 P.M. Monday, it shows 1-3 inches of snow over Seattle. Your biggest tool here will be the radar. Keep your eyes peeled to the radar because we may not know what is actually going to happen until it actually is.

I need to do more hw, but I'll update this more if needed. However, that's most of it right there. Perhaps some snow, but not likely. Any snow we do have is likely to be focused on South Seattle with points north and south getting some as well.

However, the models aren't accounting for the large wave of hope providing HOPE on some of the clouds here as well as a possible arctic front of BELIEVE sweeping down from the north. Thanks will. :)

Have a nice day,

UPDATE - 1:09 P.M. The National Weather Service now has a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for all of Western Washington. 1-3 inches expected Monday, according to them, and up to two inches in isolated spots tonight. I'm not sure if I believe it yet though...


  1. Where is your god now, Mr. I Predict Weather?

  2. Love the blog, Charlie. =)