October 18, 2010
So, that strong surface low that looked like it was going to plow right into Western Washington has gone away, but the models are still showing an active pattern with a lot of rain possible. Here are some shots from this morning's MM5-GFS run (12 UTC cycle).
The next image shows it in the process of what is called "explosive cyclogenesis," or as seasoned meteorologists around here say, "bombing." This basically means that the central pressure of the low is dropping rapidly and the system is quickly increasing in intensity.
As you can see, the occluded front is well-formed, there is a very strong and moist warm front out ahead of
the system, and there is a long cold front trailing behind it. And look where the bulk of the moisture goes!
Remember, this is only one possible scenario. Other models are not showing this situation quite yet, so we might end up with a fairly dry day (though we would probably still see some rain). But it is never fun to analyze those models. I guess we will just have to wait and see how everything unfolds! It's that time of year...