A Period of Nice Weather

Saturday, June 30, 2011
11:48 P.M.

Hello everybody!!! It's great to be back on this blog. Between traveling in Europe, attending college orientation, and helping paint my house, I haven't had much free time. However, my schedule is lightening up and I will get back to these regular blog postings.

This summer has been really cool lately. The last couple days have actually been pretty nice though. If you have enjoyed our recent weather, I have some great news for you. I looked at the GFS Superensemble model, which goes out to 16 days, and it showed a sunny and relatively warm weather pattern anchored over us indefinitely.

The graphic below shows the 1000-500mb thicknesses over our region, which is the height of the atmosphere from the 1000mb level to the 500mb level. Higher thicknesses generally mean higher temperatures.

(UW WRF-GFS Extended model, 00z run - Saturday, June 30th, 11 P.M.)

 One week later...

(UW WRF-GFS Extended model, 00z run - Saturday, August 6th, 11 P.M.)

There are some differences in the strength of the ridge over the Pacific, but all things considered, these two maps are very similar. They both show a big blocking high located around at the 40 North latitude line between 150 and 160 West longitude. This big guy prevents most storms from impacting our area. Right now, we are still at risk for some very weak systems from the northeast side of the ridge, but the ridge will strengthen as time goes on, blocking out those systems. As it strengthens, we will enter a very typical summer pattern, with clouds in the morning and sun in the afternoon.

At this point, I think that the weather will generally get sunnier and warmer as we go through the week, with highs approaching 80 by midweek. I don't see any major heat waves in sight, but if one does surface in the models, I'll be the first to let you know.

Thanks for reading,

Charlie

In Europe

Hey everybody, I am in Europe, that is why I haven't posted in awhile. I am currently in Genoa, Italy, and am having a good time. It is fairly hot and humid here, although it isn't too bad. It is similar to Seattle on a muggy day. Seattle has a Mediterannean climate, so the weather seasons are similar in these two areas (cool and wet in winter, warm and dry in summer). Gotta let some other people use the wi-fi, I'll be back in Seattle in a couple weeks.

Peace,
Charlie

No Change in the Extended

Monday June 20, 2011
12:49 P.M.

I just took a look at the GFS "Superensemble" model, which goes 16 days out. Although it is pretty much useless for actual forecasts 16 days out, it can show trends. Often times, the trends change every time, so there is no point in paying attention to the model. Lately, however, they have all been pointing to a continued onshore flow pattern, meaning we will see light showers and clouds into July. Sorry guys.

Other than that there isn't much going on in the weather department, maybe I'll do another blog post later today about some interesting weather around the world.

Peace,
Charlie

Sunny, then Wet

Sunday, June 19, 2011
6:18 P.M.

Yesterday was very cold and wet. Highs didn't reach 60 in many places, and Seattle got close to a half inch of rain. That would be a pretty wet day for winter, and although it would be very mild as well, there have been warmer days in December and January. Still, that's pretty cold, seeing as we are only a few days away from the summer solstice.

I have some good news and bad news. The good news is that we will return to a partly cloudy pattern with highs in the 70s next week. The bad news is that this will end on Thursday. Remember how I was showing that trough of low pressure with the corresponding low heights just offshore in my last blog post? Well, new forecasts show that this trough will move further onshore, giving us showers, clouds, and cool weather. Bummer.

UW 12z WRF-GFS 1000-500mb thickness at 5 P.M. Thursday, June 23

3-hour precipitation, same model, same time 

Bottom line: Monday-Wednesday - good days to get outside. Thursday onwards will be cool with periods of light rain from time to time.

Thanks,

Charlie

Another Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Friday, June 17, 2011
1:08 P.M.

I am loving this weather right now! Sure, it could be a little warmer, but it is nice and sunny outside, and that is definitely good enough to put me in a good mood. Just like the past few mornings, we had some morning clouds, but they were significantly weaker this time around, and much of the low ones burned off at around 10 A.M.

I am personally hoping we get some massive heat waves to warm up the lake so that I can go swimming in it. Unfortunately, that doesn't look very likely right now. We will have a small disturbance come in over the weekend, bringing some cooler air along with it. The 1000-500mb thickness diagram below for Saturday at 5 P.M. shows the cooler air over our region brought in by a weak system of low pressure. This is from the extended 12z WRF-GFS run from the UW models.

You can also see cooler air over the Aleutians and warmer air in the desert southwest. Thankfully, we are not expected to see this cold air drop into the Pacific Northwest. However, we will see some of the fringe effects of it next week, as this 8 P.M. Wednesday forecast from the same model shows.

You can see a fairly sharp increase in thickness as you head further onshore. However, with that big ridge of high pressure at 140W, we will see an onshore flow, which means we should have morning clouds followed by afternoon sun.

Have a good day everybody! Enjoy the sun.
Charlie