Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Our forecast and the hurricane season in the Atlantic

Wednesday, September 15, 2010
4:15 P.M.

Greetings my friends! Recently, we've seen a gradual transition to fall from summer. The days are getting shorter, and they are also getting cloudier and rainier. Up until now, though, we've been in pretty good shape. Unfortunately for you sun fans, this rain coming in today will be the first of many rainfalls throughout this La Nina winter, as forecast models show no real strong ridge of high pressure over the area anytime soon and show some weak systems coming through. The systems will get stronger in nature as we head into October, and they will be in full-force by November, peaking near Thanksgiving if statistics are anything to base predictions on. Until then, we will keep it showery in the short term. Expect showers tonight, and another frontal system will arrive on Friday, giving us periods of rain lasting into Saturday morning. The Husky game in the afternoon and Sunday will feature frequent showers, with isolated ones on Monday.

And ok, I lied, we might see some sun next week after Tuesday as a week ridge of high pressure takes over. But it's gonna be just that - a weak ridge of high pressure, and I don't expect it to warm us up at all (we will still be cooler than average). We will also still have a lot of cloud cover.

Ok, the weather is boring here. Nothing new for this time of year. But in the Atlantic, a debate continues. Has this year's hurricane season been a boom or a bust? There have been tons of hurricanes, and there are three storms out there currently. We have Tropical Storm Karl and Hurricanes Igor and Julia, and none pose a threat to land. But that is an awful lot of storms to have at once. You can clearly see Igor (big hurricane in the middle) in this satellite picture, and it once was a Category 4 storm with 155 mile per hour winds. That is almost a Cat-5. Julia is also a major hurricane with 135 mph winds and is to the east of Igor. This is the first time we have had two major hurricanes occuring simultaneously in the Atlantic basin. On one level, this hurricane season seems ferocious. And it is.

But it isn't! We haven't had ONE U.S. landfall, which is very unusual. All of the Cape Verde storms have been curling off to the northeast, and while we have had some storms in the Gulf (and they have intensified VERY rapidly) they have not been over water long enough to strengthen and have made landfall over Mexico, like Karl is expected to. So in that way, the season has been a bust. I kinda wanted to see a hurricane, but it's good for the U.S. that there have been no landfalls because they can cause massive death and destruction, and we don't want that, no matter how amazing a storm is.

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