Another Big Storm and Tons of Snow in the Mountains

Sunday, March 28, 2010

9:23 P.M.

Hey all, I'm sorry I haven't updated in so long. Junior year man... if you are an underclassman, get ready for it. It's intense. And the fact that I want to be successful in life is what is keeping me bogged down with work and causing me stress. I think that's a bit messed up... schools assign way too much work. They are basically discouraging successful individuals from continuing from assigning so much work. They say they are preparing them for the workplace but my parents don't stay up till 12 each night doing homework. I think it's a bit rediculous. But anyways, I'm on spring break now and can finally talk. And a big storm is coming right on tap!

Ok so I fell asleep before I could finish this, so that's the storm we saw. My bad....

Anyways, let's get to the snow, something I am very excited about. Following this storm, we will be in a post-frontal cool showery regime, which will bring tons of snow to the mountains. A winter storm warning is in effect for 18-30 inches of snow above 3000 feet. That's the most snow we've seen from a single storm all year long. And it's spring! Now that El Nino is gone we are finally seeing some glimpses of what a normal Pacific Northwest winter is like. You can see the cold cumulus clouds on the visible satellite image, and that is what we will be under the influence of today and for much of next week. Lightning strikes have already been recorded off the coast and we may see some thundershowers here today. Also, don't be surprised if you see some snow flurries in the mornings this week! Nothing will stick, it may catch you by surprise.

This picture shows the predicted snow totals from 5 A.M. Monday to 5 A.M. Tuesday, and as you can see there are widespread amounts of snow totals of one foot or greater. The snow will continue throughout the week with amounts of 6 to 12 inches occuring each day. Winter is back!

Charlie

お！ そうですね！ (O! Soodesune!)

Friday, March 5, 2010

11:16 P.M.

The expression above is one in Japanese that expresses surprisement or amazement. It's basically the translation of "wow!" Why do I say "wow?" Well, take a look at one of the forecasted storms for later next week, shown at the top. That frame shows the estimated three hour precipitation rates ending at 1o:oo P.M. Wednesday. As you can see, there is a broad swath of moderate to heavy rain, and the storm will actually still be intensifying at that time. It will also have a steep pressure gradient and even though it looks to head off into the Queen Charlottes or northern Vancouver Island it could go further south. Those hoping for a storm like the one forecasted should not get their hopes up, though, as most forecasts with storms like that haven't come true so far this season for some reason for another, probably because the El Nino conditions have some effect on the models. In any event, I'm excited to see what happens.

As this satellite image shows, we are under a ridge of high pressure with a front dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska. This front will come through Sunday, and bring rain with it. Another front will come Tuesday, and in between these fronts rain showers will be seen in the lowlands with orographic snow showers in the mountains. Highs will range from near 60 tomorrow to the lower 50s Sunday to perhaps the lower 40s Monday! Then, they will gradually rise up to the lower 50s/ upper 40s.

I am going to the annual 2010 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop tomorrow! I'll let you know how it goes.

Charlie

Wednesday, March 3, 2010
9:50 P.M.

Hey everybody! So I have some absolutely fantastic news for skiers and snowboarders! For the first time in a really, REALLY long time, it looks as though we could get into a snowier pattern for the Cascades. Why are we going to see snow later on there as opposed to other times? The answer is all in the jet stream. Take a look at this picture of the jet stream. The jet stream is the "highway" for the storms; they ride from west to east along it. The reason why we have had a fairly mild winter is because the jet stream has been splitting right around us as a result of high pressure centered off of our coast.

This is an example of the split flow pattern that we have seen so regularly this year and is the forecasted atmospheric conditions for 00 UTC Sunday. Since there is a split flow at that time, there will not be cool conditions. The cool pattern will resume when the jet stream looks more like this. This graph shows the 06 UTC Wednesday atmospheric conditions.


See the difference? The latter one has the jet stream entering from a much higher latitude - the Gulf of Alaska as opposed to off the Oregon/Californian coasts. Also, there is no split in the jet stream over us. There is one in the picture though. Can you identify it? It is way down south.
Let's take a look at the weather conditions forecasted. From now on to Sunday, where a jet stream similar to the first picture is in place, warm and dry conditions will be in place over the region. However, from Monday on, we will be under the influence of the jet stream from the Gulf of Alaska, bringing us cool and showery conditions.

Our first shot at precipitation will come later Sunday but our first shot at mountain snow will come after that as we are under the influence of post frontal showers. Here is a picture of another system early Wednesday morning (1 A.M.). You can clearly see the main front pushing through, and by then, it should be cold enough that even the main front will have snow in the passes with levels possibly as low as 1500 feet. See the showers behind the front? Those will fill into the area later and cause snow in the mountains and showers down here. With strong sun angles and an unstable atmosphere I wouldn't be surprised if some of these showers grew quite strong or had some ice pellets. We'll see.
Peace and love,
Charlie

Not much to talk about

Wednesday, March 3, 2010
12:46 A.M.

There really isn't that much to talk about it. It's late and I need to go to bed. This is just an update to tell you I'm still alive and well. I have tons of school stuff but I think I can update tomorrow. Peace guys

Charlie