Monday, February 22, 2010

Return to a Rainier Pattern

Monday, February 22, 2010
9:10 P.M.

It's completely my fault that I haven't made an update lately. The weather has just been too gosh darn boring. I believe I mentioned in an earlier post that I hate El Nino winters. Well I do have some good news for those who are with me on that. El Nino has peaked and is now declining. Models show a steady decline until it levels out in a neutral phase sometime this summer. I predict we will not see a La Nina, as the majority of the models keep the SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) a little above normal (but not enough to qualify as a El Nino year). We saw beautiful weather last weekend as a result of a huge ridge of high pressure over the state. The stronger sun angle we see now (the sun now is as strong as it was back in October) heated up many locations into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Clear skies and light winds allowed for excellent radiational cooling to take place, and many places saw frost. The range in temperature from day to night was over 20 degrees and even over 30 places in a few isolated places, which is very unusual for February.

The rain will be coming in Tuesday and will be widespread by the evening. It will be quite light. Heavier rain will come in Friday. Unfortunately, snow levels will likely stay above pass levels the whole period except in the post frontal showers after Tuesday's front.

The weekend coming up looks like it will be "nice." Not as "nice" as the past one but highs will be in the mid 50s with partly cloudy skies. There is some hope in the models as they have been hinting at a return to a cooler, more showery regime two weeks from now. But that is a long way out. Keep those fingers crossed, skiers and snowboarders!


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