Towelie

Tuesday, May 14, 2013
~2:10 P.M.

It is important to make the distinction between being dumb and stupid. Have you ever heard someone say "I may be dumb, but I'm not stupid"? Well, it turns out that this is not a dumb or stupid statement at all; being dumb and being stupid are two different things. Being dumb is to lack basic cognitive thinking skills, particularly in an academic setting.. Being stupid is to lack basic common sense. When it comes to physics, I'm dumb. When it comes to everything else, I'm just stupid.

I wouldn't say that I've gotten more stupid as I've gotten older; I've simply just come to a better realization of how stupid I am. After the heavy burst of rain yesterday afternoon, I decided to go to the IMA at the UW to pump some iron. After squats/rows/pullups and all those other compound exercises, I was absolutely drenched in sweat, but as I hobbled back to the dorm, I dried off relatively quickly due to the wind speeding up the evaporation of sweat from my body and t-shirt. When I got back to the dorm, I went outside on our McMahon cluster balcony and slipped my t-shirt over a chair to see how quickly it would dry in the wind. I came back about twenty minutes later, and the shirt was completely dry. You could tell that there were a fair number of electrolytes embedded in the cotton, but the shirt still worked.

I was proud of my shirt-drying technique, and I wanted to test it out on some other fabrics. I went ahead and took a shower (and yes, I still take those "sailor showers" that I talk about in this post), and when I was done drying myself off, I loosely wrapped my towel around the same chair that I had used to wrap my shirt around. I was a little apprehensive about the possibility of the towel flying off because whereas I could fit the t-shirt snugly over the chair like a sock, I was only able to drape it over the chair. Still, I wanted to see how long it would take for this towel to dry, so I draped it across in the most strategic way I could think of to maximize evaporation while still keeping the risk of the towel flying off below a certain threshold, and went to grab some dinner.

When I came back up to my cluster after grabbing some grub, it became apparent that the unthinkable happened. My towel was nowhere to be seen. I rushed outside to see if I could locate it. The good news is that I was able to find it. The bad news? It's stuck in a tree.

My towel is currently ~100 feet down, 30 feet west, and ~50 feet to the north of my cluster, snagged in the uppermost reaches of a maple tree. This towel has a lot of sentimental value to me, and I do not want to lose it. As of now, I see two primary options.

First, I could go to somebody else's cluster that is closer to the towel and try and throw a rope with a weight attached or some sort of chain to knock the towel off the tree. The problem is that this is illegal. You aren't allowed to throw anything off the balconies.

 

And for good reason too. Although the area under the towel's location is not easily accessible, has lots of undergrowth, and is, as far as I know, not frequented by people, an object like the anvil above falling 50 feet to the ground could easily kill someone. I'm not going to risk my dining plan OR somebody's life to get this towel. So this option is, as of now, not really an option.

Second, I could wait for a strong gust of wind to try to knock the towel off. The problem is that the strongest winds we'll see for quite some time rolled through the area yesterday, and these winds didn't knock the towel off. Is there any hope? Let's look at the ole' WRF-GFS model to find out!

Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Tue 14 May 2013 - 12hr Fcst: UW 12 WRF-GFS: 36km 500mb Absolute Vorticity, Heights

Our current flow pattern is pretty mundane. We've got weak zonal flow coming off the Pacific that is directing a few weak systems into our area. A setup like this is fairly typical for May and often gives us seasonably cool and showery conditions. Highs this time of year average in the mid 60s, and the highs that we will see with this setup will be a few degrees below that.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT, Wed 15 May 2013 - 36hr Fcst: UW 12z WRF-GFS: 36km 500mb Absolute Vorticity, Heights

This pattern will remain locked over us for Wednesday and beyond. If anything, the flow will become weaker and so will the systems coming into our area. The only thing that will really be producing rain is the upward diurnal convection caused by solar heating during the day, but because this air is flowing directly off the Pacific, it is pretty moderate with respect to temperature and there is not a large change in temperature with height. Without this large change in temperature in height, it is hard to get those strong showers like the ones we saw yesterday to form.

The National Weather Service forecast discussion from this afternoon is pretty pessimistic with regards to any convection causing the blustery conditions necessary to dethrone my towel from the tree. They said: "WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COUPLE OF REALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MUSH ACROSS W WA." "Mush?" I haven't heard that one before. Makes me think of mashed potatoes, which aren't exactly very intimidating.

So, it remains to be seen how I will get Towelie back. I could use a Nifty Nabber like the one above, but those only come in lengths of 48 inches, and I'm gonna need 48 feet to get this bad boy out of the tree.

IF YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW HAS ANY CLEVER IDEAS TO OBTAIN TOWELIE, CALL ME ON MY CELLPHONE @ 206-494-0827 OR SEND ME AN EMAIL AT CHARLIEP127@HOTMAIL.COM. TOWELIE NEVER GAVE UP ON ME IN MY TIME OF COLD AND SUFFERING, AND I'M SURE AS HELL NOT GOING TO GIVE UP ON HIM.

GOD BLESS.
CHARLIE 

A Welcome Change

Monday, May 13, 2013
12:18 P.M.

I'm a huge fan of streaks, particularly of sports and weather streaks. Whether it's Brett Favre's streak of 321 consecutive games started or Seattle's recent streak of 48 dry days this past summer. Speaking of that dry streak we had, I was super frustrated when I learned that 0.01 inches of rain put an end to it, and that we could have had a 60+ day dry streak if that one pesky little rain shower missed Sea-Tac. Sometimes, I get stuck in a predicament between wanting interesting weather and wanting a streak to continue. Inversions are exceptionally boring, but if we had an inversion in Seattle for 30 straight days, you might as well keep the streak going as long as possible. It's almost like you get bragging rights for being in a certain place when a record streak, no matter how pathetic, was broken.

The beginning of May was exceptionally warm and dry. The previous record for the most number of days to start May with zero rainfall and highs above 65 was 8. This May, the first 10 days were dry and had highs over 65. Now, normally I'm not a fan of that warm, dry weather that everybody loves so much, but when that record was going, I was hoping to extend it for as long as possible.

But I'd end any warm/dry streak for a day like today.

Here's our brief synopsis. We have a small trough swinging through our area as we speak, but there is a lot of convection associated with this trough. There's this thing called CAPE, which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy, and we are going to have a lot of it over our area today. CAPE is complicated and the amount of CAPE corresponds to a variety of factors, but the main thing to know is that the higher the CAPE, the higher the potential for convective activity and thunderstorms. Here is the CAPE forecast for 2 P.M. today from last nights 00z WRF-GFS run. I retrieved this picture from the National Weather Service's graphical area forecast discussion here.

As you can see, there is relatively high CAPE over the Puget Sound lowlands. Midwesterners may scoff at this CAPE, but it's pretty good for the Puget Sound area. We'll take what we can get.

The picture I posted at the top of this blog was the radar picture an hour before the present. Let's take a look at what the radar looks like now.

Zounds! Look at that squall line developing! By the time many of you read this post, it will be over the Seattle area.

Stay dry, and take some pictures/video of the squall line coming through! I don't know when the next time we will see one of these is, so savor the moment.

Peace,
Charlie

Dreadfully Hot

Friday, May 10, 2013

1:42 A.M.

Good morning everybody! The weather outside today is wonderful… much better than that dreadful weather we had Monday. “Dreadful?,” you might ask?

Dreadful. At least for me.

At some time during autumn 2012, I decided that I was no longer going to wear shorts (excepting formal occasions, like weddings and stuff). It worked out wonderfully… I wore a sweatshirt, so I did not get cold, and I just felt so free with my shorts. There was no need to wear constricting jeans that prevented me from having any spontaneous long-jump contests.

As I wore shorts daily throughout the winter, I adapted to the cool Seattle days. Even if I was chilly, I was so used to the feeling that I didn’t pay attention to it and it didn’t interfere with any of my activities. I simply just set any discomfort aside and went along enjoying my life. After a couple months, however, I had become so used to the sensation of wearing shorts in 40 degree weather that wearing anything long seemed to be akin to microwaving my legs. When I was required to wear long pants for jazz gigs, my legs suffocated under the heat that was being trapped by my pants.

Then came Monday.

Monday was hot. Extremely hot. For one day, Seattle tied Phoenix as the hottest major city in the United States. I don’t know the statistics, but I can’t ever remember that happening. The previous record high of 79 degrees at Sea-Tac was absolutely crushed by a high of 87 that day. Yet, I still saw a fair number of people walking around campus in long pants. How they managed this, I will never know, but they deserve some props. That’s impressive stuff right there.

Now, we are thankfully in a much cooler regime, as it is very apparent that I still need some time to readjust to the sunny Seattle summers. Let’s take a look at what we have in store for us next week.

 

Valid 02:00 am PDT Fri, 10 May 2013 - 9hr Fcst: UW 00z WRF-GFS: 36km 500mb absolute vorticity, heights

I hope you don't like upper-level winds, because it is dead calm in the upper atmosphere above us. Thankfully, most of us don't feel too strongly one way or the other. You can see a large trough over the central Pacific and a ridge over us, but as is evidenced by the lack of significant height lines over area, the upper atmosphere is essentially stagnant over our area.

Things get a little more exciting later in the week. We'll have a system come in on Sunday, and this system will be followed by another one on Monday and yet another one on Wednesday. These systems will not be strong, but the rain will certainly be felt across the area. Many of my friends (including my roommate!) have been suffering through some horrible allergies, and the precipitation and onshore flow of marine air should alleviate the suffering for those unfortunate enough to have hay fever. I have dreadful hay fever, but it peaks far earlier in the spring and coincides with the blooming of the cherry blossoms. Those who have been suffering as of late will surely welcome this break from their constant sniffling.

Thanks for reading! Time for me to go to bed. I'll write some higher-quality posts when I have less stuff on my plate.

Charlie

Snow in Plain Sight

Friday, May 3, 2013
8:24 A.M.

The last couple days have been pretty darn nice around the Pacific Northwest, but if you are a fan of the weather now, just wait until the weekend. Highs are expected to top 80 Sunday and Monday here in Seattle, and it will be even hotter near the Cascades. The average high for this time of year is 62.

Photo taken from Barbara Robertson (my aunt) from Belton, Missouri on May 2, 2013

But while we’ve been simmering in summerland, my mom’s side of the family two time zones to the east has been seeing some extremely rare early-May snowfall. The last time Kansas City saw this much snowfall this late in May was back in 1907, when Teddy Roosevelt was president and people were driving the Ford Model N, which made the Model T look like a Bugatti Veyron in comparison. As you can see from the picture above, it didn’t take a whole hell of a lot of snow to break a 100 year old record… I believe 1.7 inches fell on Kansas City in 1907. By now, 2-3 inches have fallen in most of the city and suburbs, with another possible inch in spots before the snow is over and done with.

What’s causing all this snow? Well, we’ve got an extraordinarily cold pool of air for this time of year that is plunging southward across the plains, and when you sprinkle some precipitation over that air mass due to an upper-level trough over the area, you get snow. There have been some pretty hefty storm totals from this trough, with some portions of the Upper Midwest receiving over 18 inches of snow from this storm. Had this occurred in the winter, it would likely be regarded as a fairly run-of-the-mill storm. For this time of year, however, a storm like this is unprecedented.

Ford Model N - 1906: Photo retrieved from Wikipedia Commons. Uploader - Harz4

The snow is starting to wind down over much of the area now, but it is being replaced with a likely greater threat: the risk of flash flooding. The same frontal boundary responsible for all this snow will continue to crawl eastward, but a surface low will develop due to the aforementioned upper low closing off over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low will not be particularly strong pressure-wise, but it will be fed by ample subtropical moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, and, most importantly, will be slow to make eastern progress through the states. The combination of ample, subtropical moisture and the lack of upper-level winds to carry the storm eastward is very conducive to flooding events because certain regions have the potential to get soaked with tons of rain for long periods of time.

As you can see, there are a bunch of flood warnings currently up along the Mississippi River. Just by looking at this radar, you can tell that the Mississippi and points east are getting absolutely drenched. As of 12:44 A.M. PDT Saturday, Alabama and central Tennessee look to be taking the brunt of the rainfall.

The good thing is that we will not see much in the way of severe thunderstorm activity from this system. Powerful, long-lasting supercells need wind shear to keep the updraft and downdraft separated and the storm structure intact, and this wind shear can lead to a rotating updraft if the conditions are right. Because the winds aloft are weak and there is very little shear going on, tornadoes/hail/high winds are not a major threat from this system.

Enjoy the weekend here! I'm definitely planning on going swimming in Lake Washington. Water temperatures are still in the mid 50s, but with our first heat wave of the year upon us, you shouldn't have any problem staying warm.

Charlie

Divesting in Fossil Fuels

Saturday, April 27, 2013
12:48 A.M.

Seattle Mayor, Mike Mcginn stands in solidarity with students from University of Washington, and Seattle University for divestment! This photo was taken with permission from the "Divest University of Washington" Facebook group.

On Thursday night, I was cordially invited by a wonderful wonderful friend to come to a talk on climate change that was hosted in Bagley Hall on the Seattle UW campus. The talk was hosted by SAGE, which stands for the "Student Association for Green Environments."

There were three principal presenters: Thomas Ackerman, Nick Bond, and Stephen Gardiner. I'll give you a brief background on each of them and talk about their respective presentations.

Tom Ackerman

Tom Ackerman is the director for the Joint Institute for the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) and professor of atmospheric sciences at the UW who has done research related to clouds, radiation, remote sensing, and aerosols. For this presentation, he talked about climate change basics, such as the science behind the greenhouse effect, and also forayed into ocean acidification. I was already familiar with most of the diagrams he presented and phenomena he described, but it was a very interesting and well-laid-out talk nonetheless. One thing that stood out about his presentation is that he stressed that while certain meteorological events will become more or less frequent as the Earth warms, you cannot blame any single event on global warming. As an example, he explained how models currently predict there will be a slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic but an increase in their intensity, but reiterated that Hurricane Sandy was just a single storm and that you cannot base your future predictions off one event. I forget who came up with this metaphor, but somebody compared global warming and extreme weather events to steroids in baseball. A baseball player on the juice might hit a higher number of home runs, but you can't blame any single home run on steroids. After the lecture, I introduced myself to him and learned that I will probably be taking one of his classes next year, so I'm excited for that.

Nick Bond

Nick Bond is the head honcho Washington State Climatologist and is also both a scientist working with JISAO and an affiliate associate atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington. His research covers a broad range of meteorological and climatological topics in the Pacific Northwest, and he also does some research relating the health of the marine ecosystems in the North Pacific to changes in global climate and ocean acidity. For his presentation, he posted PowerPoint slides containing two statements, and we were supposed to choose the one that was most correct. Some of them were trick questions in that both choices were correct. Mr. Bond was a great speaker and seemed like an awesome dude. I hope I get to spend more time with him in the future.

Stephen Gardiner

Stephen Gardiner is actually a professor for the Department of Philosophy at the UW and specializes in environmental ethics, particularly those related to climate change. He also holds the Ben Rabinowitz Endowed Professor in Human Dimensions of the Environment in the College of the Environment at the UW, so he is a very multidisciplinary man. His talk was on "The Ethics of Climate Change," and he discussed the morality of emitting fossil fuels such as carbon dioxide to sustain our lifestyles as human beings. He believed that completely cutting off all fossil fuel emissions with no forewarning would be highly unethical, as we need fossil fuels to sustain our economy, grow food for the population, and keep the human race afloat. On the other hand, he stressed that continuing on the path we are going on right now is unethical as well because we are  not being good stewards of the Earth for future generations of not only humans but cheetahs/blue whales/cyanobacteria as well. One of the most thought-provoking things Gardiner said was that future generations will look back upon this one with disdain for not taking more action to mitigate climate change. I can't remember if he gave any specific examples or not, but one example that immediately jumped into my mind was that of slavery. Two hundred years ago, we thought it was perfectly ok to own a person like they were a piece of property. Now, we look shamefully upon those who pushed for slavery, and anybody who still supports slavery today is nearly universally denounced as a racist and bigot. In two hundred years, will humans look shamefully upon the people who didn't take steps to reduce their carbon emissions? Maybe not as strongly as those who supported slavery. Maybe more strongly. It's an interesting topic to think about.

These three guys gave some very interesting talks, but honestly, the highlight of the evening was not their talks, nor was it an extended, intimate question-and-answer session with a panel consisting of the three guys above and three others: Michelle Koutnik (Ice and Glaciers), Jeffery Arnold (Army Corp of Engineers, Climate Change Adaptation, and Guillaume Mauger (Climate Imapcts Group: Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest).

The highlight was a brief presentation by some UW students about a new organization called Divest UW. Divest UW aims to reduce the economical power that oil companies have by calling upon universities' endowments to divest from these companies and reinvest in funds that are more environmentally and socially responsible. More specifically, Divest UW calls upon the University of Washington to divest from the top 200 publicly-traded companies that own the majority of carbon reserves.

Divest UW has a Facebook page here. Much more about the organization can be found on the page. There's not much point in just moaning and groaning about all the horrors of climate change (they may not be horrors now, but tell that to Bangladesh in 150 years); we have to do something. And Divest UW looks like a great opportunity to get involved in some sort of activism prompting a change in the way our society and economy work. I still have yet to go to a meeting, so that's something that I need to do. I'd encourage anybody who goes to the UW and has any interest in divesting in these companies to come with me.

I hope to hear from some of you! Thanks for reading, and have a nice rest of the day/night/applicable time for your reading of this post.

Charlie