Sunday Windstorm Review

Pi Day 2016
4:55 pm

I apologize for not being in the blogosphere yesterday - I was up at Alpental introducing 5-year-olds to poles. I taught lessons up there this year on the weekends and had a spectacular time, and I'd highly recommend anybody who loves kids and skiing to consider teaching ski lessons up there. The kids are so fun, kind, and carefree, and they don't judge me for being a complete goofball weirdo around them. It seems like we let go of these qualities as we grow older, which is too bad because I think they make us special. I hope the kids learned from me, because I know I learned a lot from them.

Yesterday was stormy throughout Western Washington. There were blizzard conditions at times up on some of the ridgetops at Alpental, and I believe ~250,000 people lost power here in Western Washington. Many of the kids were crying because the fierce winds were very scary! I'd estimate that there were gusts 40-50 mph affecting us at times... it was intense. The NWAC site at Dodge Ridge at Summit West clocked multiple gusts to 68 mph yesterday afternoon, and they are significantly lower in elevation than where we were at Alpental.

Sunday's storm was not very well predicted. Early forecasts showed the potential for a major windstorm across the Puget Sound region, with sustained winds of 30-45 mph and gusts up to 70 mph. Storm warnings (sustained winds of 48-63 knots or 55-73 mph) were issued for Puget Sound, something that happens very rarely. Even late Saturday night/Sunday morning, these storm warnings were still up.

Credit: National Weather Service

However, Saturday night's model runs significantly cut back on the predicted strength of the windstorm, and by early Sunday morning, the National Weather Service had replaced the storm warnings in Puget Sound with lesser gale warnings. However, these models didn't have a good handle on the storm either, and neither did Sunday morning's runs, which were initialized approximately 6 hours before the storm was forecast to make landfall. UW's flagship WRF-GFS model had the low making landfall just to the north of the mouth of the Columbia River around 11 am as a rather elongated 984 mb cyclone.

Valid 11:00 am PDT, Sun 13 Mar 2016 - 6hr Fcst
Credit: University of Washington

Instead, the storm made landfall significantly further north on the northern Olympic Peninsula and deepened to ~978 mb. This caused forecasters to increase the forecast strength of the winds for the coast and North Interior, but tone down their forecasts for the Puget Sound area due to the low traveling further north. Although high wind warnings were still up at this time, some forecasts from various outlets were calling for gusts below 45 mph for most of Puget Sound.

Instead, winds ended up being stronger than forecast, even for the Seattle area. Sea-Tac hit 56, and West Point in Magnolia hit 66! Here are some peak gusts from around the region that I retrieved from the National Weather Service... I bolded gusts from major stations or ones that were particularly high.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

 935 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016

 ...WIND REPORTS PAST 12 HOURS...

 HERE ARE SOME PRELIMINARY WIND REPORTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY

 EVENING/THURSDAY WIND EVENT. REPORTS OF LESS THAN 40 MPH WERE

 OMITTED. REPORTS ARE GUSTS...EXCEPT (P) ARE PEAK WINDS AND (S) ARE

 SUSTAINED WINDS.

 LOCATION                       SPEED     TIME/DATE       LAT/LON             

 ...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...

 MARROWSTONE POINT LIGHT      67 MPH    0406 PM 03/13   48.10N/122.69W      

 WHIDBEY ISLAND NAS           66 MPH    0359 PM 03/13   48.35N/122.67W      

 COUPEVILLE                   45 MPH    0410 PM 03/13   48.22N/122.69W      

 PORT TOWNSEND                45 MPH    0333 PM 03/13   48.11N/122.77W      

 2 W OAK HARBOR               44 MPH    0404 PM 03/13   48.29N/122.69W      

 2 W FREELAND                 40 MPH    0340 PM 03/13   48.01N/122.58W      

 ...BELLEVUE AND VICINITY...

 1 S EASTGATE                 57 MPH    0246 PM 03/13   47.55N/122.13W      

 1 WNW KIRKLAND               46 MPH    0403 PM 03/13   47.69N/122.22W      

 1 NNW BOTHELL                44 MPH    0403 PM 03/13   47.78N/122.21W      

 KENMORE                      44 MPH    0310 PM 03/13   47.76N/122.25W      

 ISSAQUAH                     40 MPH    0340 PM 03/13   47.53N/122.03W      

 ...BREMERTON AND VICINITY...

 INDIANOLA                    51 MPH    0139 PM 03/13   47.74N/122.51W      

 BREMERTON AIRPORT            40 MPH    0155 PM 03/13   47.50N/122.75W      

 ...CENTRAL COAST...

 HOQUIAM BOWERMAN AP          63 MPH    0122 PM 03/13   46.97N/123.93W      

 1 WNW ABERDEEN               52 MPH    0146 PM 03/13   46.98N/123.84W      

 ...EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...

 LAKE STEVENS                 45 MPH    0333 PM 03/13   48.03N/122.06W      

 2 W SNOQUALMIE               44 MPH    1044 AM 03/13   47.52N/121.88W      

 ENUMCLAW                     41 MPH    0252 PM 03/13   47.21N/122.00W      

 ...EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...

 EDIZ HOOK CG                 45 MPH    1255 PM 03/13   48.14N/123.41W      

 ...EVERETT AND VICINITY...

 PAINE FIELD AP               60 MPH    0316 PM 03/13   47.91N/122.28W      

 ARLINGTON AP                 52 MPH    0355 PM 03/13   48.16N/122.16W      

 HARBOUR POINTE               49 MPH    0300 PM 03/13   47.89N/122.32W      

 ALDERWOOD MANOR              41 MPH    0415 PM 03/13   47.82N/122.28W      

 ...HOOD CANAL AREA...

 1 WSW BRINNON                56 MPH    0312 PM 03/13   47.67N/122.93W      

 SHELTON AIRPORT              52 MPH    0305 PM 03/13   47.24N/123.14W      

 4 E PORT LUDLOW              47 MPH    0425 PM 03/13   47.92N/122.58W      

 ...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA...

 MINOT PEAK                   43 MPH    1100 AM 03/13   46.89N/123.42W      

 ...NORTH COAST...

 QUILLAYUTE AIRPORT           47 MPH    0355 PM 03/13   47.94N/124.56W      

 LA PUSH NOS TIDE GAUGE       42 MPH    0336 PM 03/13   47.91N/124.64W      

 ...OLYMPICS...

 HUMPTULLIPS                  63 MPH    0308 PM 03/13   47.38N/123.76W      

 JEFFERSON CREEK              42 MPH    0536 PM 03/13   47.55N/123.22W      

 ...SAN JUAN COUNTY...

 LOPEZ ISLAND                 66 MPH    0351 PM 03/13   48.53N/122.87W      

 4 SSW ROCHE HARBOR           58 MPH    0549 PM 03/13   48.55N/123.16W      

 NW DECATUR IS. BEACH         51 MPH    0403 PM 03/13   48.51N/122.83W      

 FRIDAY HARBOR AIRPORT        51 MPH    0315 PM 03/13   48.52N/123.02W      

 2 SE EASTSOUND               48 MPH    0445 PM 03/13   48.67N/122.87W      

 ORCAS ISLAND AP              45 MPH    0615 PM 03/13   48.71N/122.91W      

 ...SEATTLE AND VICINITY...

 SEATTLE TACOMA  ARPT         56 MPH    0138 PM 03/13   47.44N/122.31W       

 BOEING FIELD/KING COUNTY INT 54 MPH    0130 PM 03/13   47.53N/122.30W      

 POINT ROBINSON               53 MPH    0400 PM 03/13   47.39N/122.37W      

 NORMANDY PARK                52 MPH    0149 PM 03/13   47.44N/122.34W      

 3 NW WHITE CENTER            49 MPH    0213 PM 03/13   47.56N/122.39W      

 UNIV. OF WASHINGTON          49 MPH    0403 PM 03/13   47.65N/122.31W      

 3 SW SEATTLE                 48 MPH    0507 PM 03/13   47.58N/122.40W      

 RENTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT     48 MPH    0220 PM 03/13   47.49N/122.21W      

 1 NNW FEDERAL WAY            45 MPH    0438 PM 03/13   47.34N/122.35W      

 2 NW WHITE CENTER            44 MPH    0415 PM 03/13   47.55N/122.38W      

 3 NW WHITE CENTER            43 MPH    0320 PM 03/13   47.56N/122.39W      

 4 NW SEATTLE                 43 MPH    0506 PM 03/13   47.67N/122.41W      

 1 SE SEATTLE                 42 MPH    0242 PM 03/13   47.59N/122.32W      

 3 WNW SEATTLE                42 MPH    0455 PM 03/13   47.65N/122.41W      

 1 NE SEATTLE                 42 MPH    0159 PM 03/13   47.62N/122.32W      

 1 NE SEATTLE                 41 MPH    0317 PM 03/13   47.64N/122.33W      

 2 W KIRKLAND                 41 MPH    0330 PM 03/13   47.69N/122.26W      

 ...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...

 OLYMPIA AIRPORT              46 MPH    0239 PM 03/13   46.97N/122.90W      

 YELM                         43 MPH    1250 PM 03/13   46.94N/122.61W      

 1 WNW NISQUALLY              41 MPH    0210 PM 03/13   47.07N/122.72W      

 5 S LACEY                    40 MPH    0202 PM 03/13   46.96N/122.80W      

 ...TACOMA AREA...

 JBLM-FT LEWIS                58 MPH    1258 PM 03/13   47.08N/122.58W      

 JBLM-MCCHORD                 55 MPH    0119 PM 03/13   47.13N/122.48W      

 3 NNE FREDERICKSON           46 MPH    0330 PM 03/13   47.13N/122.34W      

 TACOMA NARROWS AIRPORT       44 MPH    0255 PM 03/13   47.27N/122.58W      

 1 NW FIRCREST                43 MPH    0150 PM 03/13   47.25N/122.53W      

 RUSTON                       41 MPH    0225 PM 03/13   47.30N/122.52W      

 2 NW ARTONDALE               40 MPH    0327 PM 03/13   47.34N/122.67W      

 2 SW FEDERAL WAY             40 MPH    0143 PM 03/13   47.29N/122.38W      

 SOUTH HILL                   40 MPH    0302 PM 03/13   47.14N/122.27W      

 ...WASHINGTON...

 DESTRUCTION ISLAND           79 MPH    0300 PM 03/13   47.68N/124.49W      

 1 SW KBLI                    68 MPH    0510 PM 03/13   48.78N/122.56W      

 WESTPORT TIDE GAUGE          68 MPH    0200 PM 03/13   46.90N/124.11W      

 CHERRY POINT                 66 MPH    0436 PM 03/13   48.86N/122.76W      

 WEST POINT                   66 MPH    0400 PM 03/13   47.66N/122.44W      

 SMITH ISLAND                 60 MPH    0300 PM 03/13   48.32N/122.84W      

 POSSESSION SOUND             59 MPH    0413 PM 03/13   48.02N/122.27W      

 CAPE ELIZABETH BUOY          58 MPH    0250 PM 03/13   47.30N/124.70W      

 S. LOPEZ ISLAND              56 MPH    0304 PM 03/13   48.40N/122.90W      

 HOOD CANAL BRIDGE            56 MPH    0420 PM 03/13   47.86N/122.62W      

 PORT TOWNSEND NOS TIDE GAUGE 55 MPH    0336 PM 03/13   48.12N/122.75W      

 RICHMOND BEACH               55 MPH    0405 PM 03/13   47.77N/122.39W      

 BLANCHARD                    54 MPH    0350 PM 03/13   48.59N/122.43W      

 SEATTLE                      52 MPH    0306 PM 03/13   47.60N/122.34W      

 HEIN BANK BUOY               49 MPH    0550 PM 03/13   48.30N/123.20W      

 GOLDEN GARDENS SEATTLE       48 MPH    0305 PM 03/13   47.69N/122.40W      

 HENDERSON BAY                48 MPH    0330 PM 03/13   47.38N/122.63W      

 WINSLOW FERRY DOCK           44 MPH    0310 PM 03/13   47.62N/122.51W      

 POINT WELLS                  43 MPH    0410 PM 03/13   47.80N/122.40W      

 KEYSTONE FERRY DOCK          43 MPH    0415 PM 03/13   48.16N/122.67W      

 PORT OF TACOMA #1            42 MPH    0230 PM 03/13   47.28N/122.42W      

 4 ESE PORT LUDLOW            40 MPH    0327 PM 03/13   47.90N/122.60W      

 ...WEST SLOPES NORTH CASCADES AND PASSES...

 KIDNEY CREEK                 41 MPH    0128 PM 03/13   48.92N/121.94W      

 SUMAS-RAWS                   40 MPH    0509 PM 03/13   48.91N/122.22W      

 ...WEST SLOPES NORTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES...

 SNOQUALMIE PASS              68 MPH    0500 PM 03/13   47.42N/121.43W      

 ...WEST SLOPES SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES...

 PARADISE                     45 MPH    0400 PM 03/13   46.78N/121.74W      

 ...WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY...

 SEDRO WOOLLEY-RAWS           47 MPH    0642 PM 03/13   48.52N/122.22W      

 BURLINGTON/MOUNT VERNON      46 MPH    0355 PM 03/13   48.47N/122.42W      

 ...WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY...

 SANDY PT. SHORES             68 MPH    0354 PM 03/13   48.80N/122.71W      

 BELLINGHAM INTL AP           64 MPH    0510 PM 03/13   48.79N/122.54W      

 LYNDEN                       52 MPH    0535 PM 03/13   48.96N/122.41W      

 3 N FERNDALE                 50 MPH    0532 PM 03/13   48.90N/122.58W      

 LUMMI ISLAND                 47 MPH    0435 PM 03/13   48.73N/122.70W      

 3 W FERNDALE                 47 MPH    0427 PM 03/13   48.85N/122.67W      

 4 SSW LYNDEN                 47 MPH    0505 PM 03/13   48.89N/122.49W      

 BLAINE                       46 MPH    0515 PM 03/13   49.00N/122.74W       

 4 ENE FERNDALE               44 MPH    0534 PM 03/13   48.88N/122.51W      

 3 WSW SUDDEN VALLEY          44 MPH    0415 PM 03/13   48.69N/122.40W      

 BLAINE                       42 MPH    0523 PM 03/13   49.00N/122.75W      

 BELLINGHAM                   41 MPH    0504 PM 03/13   48.74N/122.45W      

 1 WNW LYNDEN                 41 MPH    0505 PM 03/13   48.96N/122.48W

These gusts are strong, but they aren't anything we've ever seen before. Still, it's pretty impressive to have a 66 mph gust at West Point in mid-March! The Seattle NWS office dubbed this storm the "Pre-St. Patty's Day Punch," which is pretty awesome. When it comes to naming notable weather events, alliteration counts.

Retrieved from Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Here's a picture I took from Cliff Mass' blog of max gusts recorded during the windstorm. As you can see, higher winds were located over the coast and North Interior. There are quite a few low gusts (10s and 20s), and these are from stations that are not well-exposed to the wind. Over water, gusts were in the 45-60 mph range across the region, and coastal headlands (like Destruction Island) accelerated these winds. Camp Muir at 10,110 feet on Mt. Rainier was the wind winner with a gust to 95 mph.

The most amazing thing about this storm, however, was simply how it appeared on radar and satellite. This was a compact storm, and had a very distinctive bent-back occlusion (the swirl of clouds that spirals counterclockwise to the center of the low). Take a look!

09:15 am PDT, Sun 13 Mar 2016
Credit: University of Washington

As this visible satellite image shows, the storm was off the mouth of the Columbia around 9:15 am, and was heading to the NNE. You can see the tight circulation around the low and the intense cold front along the Oregon Coast. Strong winds are occurring along the coast and mountain ridgetops at this time, but winds in the lowlands are relatively low.

I've seen some cool shots from our coastal radar, but this may very well be the coolest one yet. Take a look at the low! It almost looks like a hurricane. You can really see the movement of the storm with the animated gif below. Moreover, you can see how the reflectivity in the vicinity of the radar increases as time (and wind speed) goes on, and this is due to "sea clutter," or the radar beam reflecting off the top of wave crests. More wind, bigger waves, and thus more sea clutter.

Created with NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit

Here's the view at 12:10 pm. Compare it to the image from the NASA TERRA polar-orbiting satellite below, which was also taken around 12:10 pm.

Image taken ~12:10 pm by NASA's TERRA satellite
Credit: NASA

There were strong winds over 520, and the bridge was closed for a while. I can't remember the last time that happened, but it has been a long time!

Credit: National Weather Service

But, of course, the day finished on a beautiful note. Take a look at this incredible photo out at Alki Point from Tim Durkan. That has to be one of the most brilliant double rainbows I've ever seen.

Credit: Tim Durkan

Thanks for reading! Things look much calmer this week, especially after Wednesday. Inclement weather returns for the weekend, but it won't be anything like what we saw this past week.

Thank you!

Charlie

Windstorm on Sunday?

Saturday, March 12, 2016

11:21 pm

Just a really quick post... I got back home really late tonight and have to wake up in six hours to go hit the ski slopes and teach some ski lessons! 

We've got the potential for a strong windstorm on Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and track of this system, and even though those uncertainties are relatively small, a storm even a little bit weaker than forecast and further away from us could leave us with a few broken limbs here in Seattle, while a stronger storm closer to our region could result in widespread power outages.

Credit: National Weather Service

The National Weather Service currently has high wind warnings for Western Washington and Storm Warnings for all waters (excluding the western entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca). Any time there are Storm Warnings for Puget Sound, it's time to prepare for a major windstorm. 

The National Weather Service is calling for gusts up to 70 mph throughout much of the region, including the Seattle area. However, tonight's models are more bearish with the low. At this point, I'd expect gusts to top out around 50-55 mph for most folks. However, as previously stated, small changes in the track and strength of the low could result in huge differences in wind speeds.

Credit: National Weather Service

Right now, the low doesn't look all that threatening, but it is developing at a very fast clip right now. Take a look at the water vapor satellite pic below.

Image taken 11 pm 3/12/2016
Credit: National Weather Service

One thing's for sure - the mountains will a LOT of snow. Even the passes will likely get close to a foot of snow from noon Sunday to noon Monday, so bring chains if you are headed into the mountains. You might need them!

Charlie

Brief Southeast Sucker Review

Thursday, March 10, 2016
3:00 pm

That "Southeast Sucker" I blogged about last night stormed ashore early this morning, and delivered a sucker punch to a wider area of the region than I initially forecast. The system actually ended up coming a little closer to our region than the models showed, so the I-5 corridor got a good dose of wind as well. Here are some wind gusts from across the region as compiled by the Seattle National Weather Service.

The most impressive winds were at mountain sites. An anemometer at the top of Mission Ridge recorded a gust of 127 mph from the WSW this morning, and as you can see, both Mt. Baker and Crystal Mountain received gusts over 100 mph as well. Coastal headlands were the next windiest place, with Naselle Ridge on the southwestern Washington Coast hitting a staggering 104 mph and nearby Megler hitting 99 mph! Areas in the Northern Interior were quite windy as well, with many areas hitting 60 mph. Even the Central Sound got some action, with gusts approaching 50 at many locations around Seattle. Sea-Tac hit 44.

The map below shows some of the peak gusts recorded over the past 24 hours (from 5 pm Wednesday to now). As you can see, the mouth of the Columbia really got hit hard... Astoria had four separate gusts over 70 mph!

Credit: National Weather Service - Western Region Headquarters

You may have heard that there was a spectacular solar eclipse yesterday (an event worthy of its own blog). Although the eclipse itself did not affect us, it meant that there were abnormally high astronomical tides, since the sun and moon were in perfect alignment. Combine this with low pressure, strong winds, and high waves, and you've got a recipe for coastal flooding. Check out some of the flooding in downtown Vancouver yesterday!

Credit: Kirk Williams

There was plenty of coastal flooding in Washington as well. Check out some pictures of a road in Lummi Island being flooded this morning! Photos retrieved from the Bellingham Fire Department Twitter feed.

There was plenty of damage away from the water though. Take a look at what happened to this poor Home Depot in Bellingham! It's one thing to see trees down, but to see significant structural damage like this is pretty impressive.

Credit: KGMI Radio

With the North Interior and Coast taking the brunt of this storm, this was a classic Southeast Sucker event. It may have gotten breezy in Seattle, but there's no comparison to what we experienced here in the Seattle metropolitan area and what the Home Depot experienced in Bellingham.

It's hard for me to concentrate while writing this right now... I'm listening to the Donald talk about how he is a unifier. This debate is relatively boring compared to debates past.

Charlie

The Southeast Sucker!

Wednesday, March 9, 2016
12:09 pm

Meteorologists used to have very interesting names for different types of weather. I was introduced to the famed "Pineapple Express" back in elementary school, when it rained 5.02 inches at Sea-Tac during one incredibly rainy 5th grade day. Unfortunately, Pineapple Express seems to have fallen out of favor among meteorologists due to the rise of a potent cannabis strain of the same name, and has been replaced by the much more lifeless "atmospheric river." Indeed, it seems like creativity is being thrown out in favor of bland scientific jargon. How many times have you seen a meteorologist add the word "event" to any type of weather we experience? A "cyclone" has become a "wind event," a flood has become a "rain event," and in my opinion, it's only a matter of time before a "heat wave" becomes a "temperature event."

Thankfully, there are still plenty of meteorologists out there who have given creative yet intuitive names to the different types of weather we experience. We have "Tornado Alley," "snowpocalypse," and the "ozone hole." In our neck of the woods, we have the "rain shadow," the "convergence zone," and, of course, the "Blob." We have cyclogenic bombs and omega blocks, cloud streets and mackerel sky, El Nino and La Nina... the list goes on and on.

But my favorite of all of them? The "Southeast Sucker."

The Great Coastal Gale, the "mother of all Southeast Suckers" - Wolf Read
Image taken 09:00 pm PST, Sun 02 Dec 2007
Credit: University of Washington Online Weather Data Archive

Our current Southeast Sucker
Image taken 02:30 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016
Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences

A Southeast Sucker is simply a strong windstorm that, due to a fairly far track offshore, creates a pressure gradient over our area that is more east-west oriented than north-south oriented. When this happens, the peak winds in many regions have a strong easterly component. With these storms, the strongest winds are generally found over the coast, the northern interior, and places that are exposed to easterly "gap" winds coming off the Cascades. Enumclaw and North Bend are two places that commonly get strong winds during southeast sucker events, but areas closer to the I-5 corridor can still get breezy if they have ample southeastern exposure.

However, with the exception of the foothills and Northern Interior, most of the Pacific Northwest lowlands west of the Cascades only get moderately breezy from these types of storms. This is because mountain ranges (the Olympics in Washington and the Coast Range in Oregon) help shelter these areas from strong winds and pressure gradients associated with the Sucker.

Here's what the National Weather Service had to say about the Sucker this morning.

"INLAND AREAS OF WRN WA WILL ALSO GET SOME WINDY WEATHER...THIS DEEP LOW IS A CLASSIC SOUTHEASTERLY SUCKER FOR THE INLAND PTN OF WRN WA AND THE WINDY SPOTS WILL BE FROM ADMIRALTY INLET UP THROUGH WHIDBEY AND THE SAN JUANS AND FROM ANACORTES TO BELLINGHAM BAY. FULL GALES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND...LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE."

They also produced a handy graphic to outline the impacts of the storm, shown below.

Credit: National Weather Service - Seattle

As you can see, the coast is expected to be the windiest, as it is closest to the storm and receives strong winds coming off the ocean, and it is currently under a high wind warning. The North Interior actually just got bumped up from a wind advisory to a high wind warning, and winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 60 are expected there. Meanwhile, there are no wind warnings, advisories, or watches anywhere else in Western Washington, as the Olympics shelter many of us from these strong southeast winds. With our storms, the coast and north interior are almost always more windy than the Puget Sound lowlands, but this effect is amplified during these Southeast Sucker events.

Let's take a look at the track and winds of the current storm.

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 12hr Fcst

At 4 pm, the storm is between 130 and 135 degrees west longitude and around 45 degrees latitude. There are two centers of low pressure within the general cyclone itself, and this is not conducive to rapid storm development. Nevertheless, the cyclone is pretty deep at ~977 mb and will continue deepening. The coast, particularly the Oregon Coast, is experiencing high winds at this time.

Valid 10:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 18hr Fcst

By tonight, the storm has deepened further and is generally heading to the northeast. The two individual low pressure centers are doing a drunken waltz around each other and hindering the storm's development in the process. The front is approaching the coastline, and is bringing very strong winds with it. I would not be surprised if Cape Blanco, an exposed headland on the Southern Oregon Coast, receives gusts well over 100 mph from this storm.

Valid 04:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 24hr Fcst

The storm continues to deepen early Thursday morning, and a powerful round of high winds approaches the Washington coast. It is now traveling to the NNE.

Valid 10:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 30hr Fcst

The storm continues its northeastward trajectory before weakening and slipping to the south. Through it all, the coast has gotten absolutely pounded, the North Interior has taken a good beating, and most inland areas have escaped relatively unscathed. However, they will be wet, with some of the volcanic peaks such as Mt. Rainier and Mt. St. Helens possibly picking up as much as 10 inches of rain in 24 hours!

Valid 04:00 am PST, Thu 10 Mar 2016 - 24 Fcst

One more picture, and then I'll peace for now. This graphic shows the surface winds just like the graphics above, but does so at much higher resolution. If you look carefully, you can really see the easterly component to the winds north of the dramatic warm front near Grays Harbor.

Additionally, you can see that there are strong winds at the exit regions of gaps, with breezy conditions near Enumclaw, Randle, Gold Bar, and many other locations in the Cascade foothills. The northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula is particularly windy, with sustained winds of 45 knots near Tatooosh Island. I'm looking forward to reviewing some of the wind velocities from Tatoosh Island after this storm has passed, as they could be quite impressive.

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 09 Mar 2016 - 12hr Fcst

Even though it will be mild, snow levels won't be sky high. It's snowing at Snoqualmie Pass right now. Let's hope it stays that way!

Peace for now,

Charlie

Seattle's Rainiest Winter Ever

Monday, March 7, 2016
1:43 pm

The Snohomish River topping its banks on December 9, 2015.
Credit: Brie Hawkins

I'll be the first to admit that weather forecasters are often wrong. After all, weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 90 percent of the time and keep your job. Still, this winter has flummoxed many seasonal weather forecasters on the West Coast, and although it may not cost them their jobs, it is certainly bringing to light our ineptitude with regards to seasonal forecasting. Forecast models were adamant that the Pacific Northwest would see drier-than-normal conditions throughout the winter, and that the Southwest would be wetter than normal, bringing desperately-needed rainfall to drought-stricken California. Instead, the Pacific Northwest had one of their wettest winters on record, and the southwest was actually drier than normal. Although farmers in our region aren't complaining, I'm sure that many in California are absolutely furious at meteorologists. I know I would be!

Credit: Western Regional Climate Center

In fact, since our October 1st, which is the beginning of our "water year," some places in the Pacific Northwest have received more than 20 inches above average of their precipitation for this period. In fact, many areas on the Olympic Peninsula have picked up over 100 inches of rain since then!

Meanwhile, Los Angeles and other areas in Southern California are running several inches below average. Talk about no rest for the weary!

Credit: National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Credit: Western Regional Climate Center

So, what happened?

El Ninos generally give wetter-than-normal conditions to California after the New Year (there is little correlation before January 1st), and this is due to a large area of low pressure setting up in the Eastern Pacific, allowing the jet stream to sag southward into California. We had a wet October and November and a downright stormy December, and while an El Nino pattern did develop after the New Year, there was also a persistent ridge of high pressure over Southern California, pushing the jet stream back north into our region for extended periods of time and giving us relatively warm and wet southwesterly flow in the process. In the graphic below, the negative anomalies correspond to areas of lower pressure and vise versa.

Credit: NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

"Astronomical winter" is defined as the period from the winter solstice to the vernal (spring) equinox, which is approximately from December 21st to March 20th, with the dates occasionally changing due to one calendar year not being exactly equal to the period of the Earth's orbit around the sun. However, most people would agree that Hanukkah feels more winter-ish than St. Patrick's Day, so we've come up with the term "meteorological winter" to define winter based on what the weather is like outside.

Meteorological winter is officially defined as December 1st to February 28 for the entire country. We had the wettest meteorological winter on record by far here in Seattle, with 24.54 inches of rain from December to the 28th of February (and 24.63 inches if you count February 29th), besting the record of 22.77 inches set in 1998-1999.

Cliff Mass, one of my atmospheric sciences professors at the University of Washington, defines our "meteorological winter" as the period from October 1st to March 1st, and while this is a fair bit broader than the previous definition, it makes sense, considering that these are the primary months that our storms come through. For this reason, October 1st is said to mark the beginning of the "water year," and boy oh boy did we have a lot of water this year. From October 1st to March 1st, we had 38.62 inches of rain in Sea-Tac, breaking the previous record of 38.19 (also set in 1998-1999). That's more rain than Sea-Tac usually receives in an entire year! Seattle has nearly 40 inches as of Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rains and flooding are predicted Wednesday night, with unsettled weather the rest of the week.

My personal definition of meteorological winter is from Veteran's Day to Valentine's Day, because it's nearly impossible to get significant lowland snowstorms here outside of those dates. Compiling statistics for my own "meteorological winter" definition would be extremely time-consuming and not very productive, but I'm willing to bet that 2015-2016 was also the wettest year for the Veteran's Day to Valentine's Day time frame.

An interesting thing to note was that although this winter was very wet, we didn't have a ton of record-breaking rainfall events. Instead, we simply remained in a rainy pattern for the entire winter and had relatively few dry spells.

Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences

Even though we've been wet, we've also been warmer than normal (though not nearly as warm as we were last year). As such, our snowpack is right around normal. But you can bet your bonnet that our streams and reservoirs are running high and that our soils are saturated. Salmon will have a much easier time getting up the rivers to spawn this autumn, and hopefully we will have less fire danger this summer due to increased soil and crop moisture.

In the meantime, long range forecasts are predicting us to be cooler and wetter for next winter as we head into a La Nina pattern! However, after this winter, I'm not sure whether I should ever believe the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks again.

Cliff Mass at the 2016 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop talking about how bad our seasonal precipitation forecasts were this year. Credit: Logan Johnson

Thanks for reading!
Charlie