Mega-Millions and Global Warming

Friday, March 30, 2012

10:42 A.M.

The Mega-Millions jackpot is, as of 10:43 A.M., 640 million dollars. I've never bought a lottery ticket, but I'm pretty tempted to do so. Even though it's somewhat of a long shot, it definitely makes for interesting conversation material. What would you do with 640 million dollars? I don't know what I would do.

I'm gonna get a little philosophical on my weather blog. I've never believed that money brings you happiness. I have plenty of mega-rich neighbors, but they don't seem any happier than any other people I know, and in some cases, they seem pretty unhappy. If I won 640 million dollars, I'd probably save a couple million for myself and my family, but I'd end up giving the rest away to fund research on alternative energy to help mitigate the effects of global warming. Although nearly all climatologists believe in global warming, it still amazes me how many tv "meteorologists" don't believe our planet is warming. A study in March of 2010 by researchers at George Mason University and the University of Texas at Austin found that only half of 571 television weathercasters surveyed believed that global warming was occurring, and fewer than a third believed that global warming was "caused mostly by human activities. And it gets even worse. More than a quarter of weathercasters in the survey believed that "global warming is a scam." 

This is pitiful. A national embarrassment. Time after time, scientists have shown that greenhouse gasses trap heat and cause a warming of the planet. This has been verified in laboratory studies, in climate models, and in climate records. Global warming skeptics pick pieces of evidence support their claim that global warming is not occurring, and because they pick and choose their evidence to show to people, their "research" has no scientific value. 

And the whole global warming debate aside, doesn't it make sense to take drastic measures to clean our planet if it is even possible that what models are forecasting may come true?

That's what I want to leave you with today. If I won the mega-millions jackpot, I would focus my efforts on getting the message out there that global warming is very serious, and, frankly, at this point, inevitable. But there are things we can do to lessen the effects of global warming. We can develop alternative energy sources (I'm a big fan of solar and nuclear), we can develop carbon sequestration more effectively, we can make more fuel-efficient cars, we can reduce our population, we can have more sustainable logging industries to prevent deforestation. The list goes on and on. And we can set examples for our fellow citizens of the world. We can take the bus. We can install solar panels on our roofs. We can breathe less (just kidding).

I hope we are ready for climate change and ocean acidification, because these will be the most significant environmental changes we have seen on our planet for at least the past 700,000 years. 

Charlie

Heavy Mountain Snow

Thursday, March 29, 2012
10:33 A.M.

I've yet to go skiing this year (I know, it's pretty bad), but I'm honestly going to try to make an effort to go up this weekend. We are seeing some incredible amounts of snowfall in the mountains for late March. In fact, as of March 25, we were nearly at our average for the entire year, and we have already surpassed it with the snowfall we have seen since then. And if this snow continues to pile up in April, we will see even higher amounts.

I remember the 2007-2008 ski season well, as I skied nearly 30 days that year. That year was a phenomenal snow year, as Snoqualmie Pass nearly got 50 FEET of snow. It was awesome. Most of the snow that year occurred in December, January, and February, but the snowfall persisted long into the spring as well. Alpental   stayed open until Memorial Day weekend, and I was lucky enough to ski the backcountry on the last day it was open. It was so awesome... skiing over waterfalls with the softest corn snow you could imagine.

However, the 2010-2011 ski season was horrible for the traditionally snowy months of December and January. I remember going up to Alpental early in the season and making the mistake of trying to ski in a run that is better skied when there is a lot of snow, as the snow covers a creek bed that is full in the spring and summer. Long story short, I couldn't straight run the creek bed because it was too long, too steep, and too scary, so I tried to side-slip it. Of course, it was very narrow, and I got to a point where my skis were stuck between the edges of the bed. It took some slick maneuvering to get me out of that sticky predicament, and I decided to avoid that run for the rest of the day.

The ski season last year really took off in the spring. We were seeing a pattern very similar to what we are seeing now, with tons of springtime snowfall in the mountains. I should have gone up then, and given that creek bed another shot! It would have been a breeze.

This ski season is turning out to be very similar to last year's ski season. December and January were pretty bad months for snowfall, although the burst of snowfall here in the lowlands in January also brought a lot of snow to the mountains and helped give us a little breathing room. I honestly can't remember how February was in the mountains, but March has been incredible. And in the next couple days, we will pile up several more feet of snow in the mountains.

Let's take a look at the current watches, advisories, and warnings over our area.

There are winter storm warnings AND avalanche warnings in both the Cascades and Olympics (but when there are both, the map only shows the winter storm warnings). There is also a flood warning on the Skykomish River for minor flooding, but the main story here is the snow. One to two feet are forecast starting at 3 A.M. this morning and ending at 6 P.M. this afternoon. The NWS said that the snow level is likely to be at 3,500 feet and remain above Snoqualmie Pass, but Snoqualmie Pass is seeing snow now, so I'd say that the snow level is at around 3,100 feet. The snow isn't sticking to the pavement at Snoqualmie as much as it is at higher passes, like Stevens, though, so if you need to go through the Cascades, Snoqualmie Pass is your best bet.

Let's take a look at our ole' trusty WRF-GFS 24 hour snowfall map, starting at 5 A.M. this morning.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Fri, 30 Mar 2012 - 24hr Fcst - UW 4km 12z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

One to two feet of snow in the Cascades, with less around Snoqualmie Pass. Snoqualmie Pass has still seen around 8 inches of new snow since this morning though since the snow level is a little bit lower than forecast.

We'll get an even better shot at mountain snow this coming weekend. Snow levels will be pretty low - around 1,500 feet - so Snoqualmie Pass will definitely see snow this time and travel will be affected over all the mountain passes. AND, the snow won't be too heavy for all you skiers out there. I'm telling ya, this weekend is gonna be epic.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Fri, 30 Mar 2012 - 24hr Fcst - UW 4km 12z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

The extended forecast continues to look wetter and cooler than normal. So enjoy the rain, head up to the slopes. and take some Vitamin D tablets if you must.

Charlie

Wet!!!

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

10:53 A.M.

Photo Credit: Jenni Whalen

So, I was talking a peek at the weather models this morning, and unfortunately, this morning's runs look even wetter than before! I'm not complaining, as this will be great for our mountain snowpack, but it is sure to be an inconvenience for many around here.

Let's take a look at the extracted GFS temperature and precipitation for both Seattle and Portland. These screenshots are courtesy of Brian Schmit, who made the program. I entered the comments.

 

Portland looks to get soaked during this period. Seven inches of rain is a TON of rain. However, one should be careful when reading this extracted data, as the GFS model often overestimates rainfall for Portland due to it not picking up the effects of shadowing from the coast range. The big GFS model (as opposed to our WRF-GFS models at the UW) lacks the resolution to get great estimates of temperature and precipitation for specific locales. It also commonly underestimates high temperatures. Nevertheless, I would expect at least four inches of rain for Portland over the next two weeks, and possibly more. The snow will continue to pile up in the mountains.

The run for Seattle pretty much tells the same story. It is not quite as wet, as the big GFS model is better at accounting for the rain shadow from the Olympics than the rain shadow for the Coast Range in Northwest Oregon, but it is still pretty darn wet and cool. There is that odd 61 degree day, which just goes to show you how unpredictable a model is after around 5 days.

Bottom line: we will be wet and cool for at least the next week and possibly beyond.

Snowfall in the Cascades? You betcha!

Charlie

Entering a Period of Stormy Weather

Tuesday, March 27, 2011

6:31 P.M.

Today, I was woken up my multiple birds chirping right at my window. It was wonderful, and even though they woke me up way too early (my first class is at 11:30 on Tuesdays), I really appreciated them.  I even personally thanked the birds, but seeing as it was 7:00 AM, I fell right back asleep.

I'm no ornithologist, but it seems to me that the birds chirp more when it is sunny. I'm predicting below-average bird chirping for the rest of the week.

The first storm of the week is impacting us right now, and it's not forecast to be super strong. But as the diagram above shows, we could be in for some hardcore action Wednesday night and Thursday. Take a look at the model below.

Valid 02:00 am PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 33hr Fcst - UW 36km 00z WRF-GFS 3-hour precip, SLP

You can see a well-defined front off the Washington coast. This front will give moderately heavy rain in the lowlands (around a half inch for most places), with heavier amounts of precipitation on the coast and in the mountains. Snow levels may initially be above the passes, but they will quickly fall below 3,000 feet, meaning all passes will see gobs of snow from this storm.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 48hr Fcst - UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall

Widespread amounts of 6-12 inches in the Cascades, with some places receiving much more. And the snow will continue for the rest of the week. By Sunday, Snoqualmie Pass will probably have picked up 2-4 feet of snow.

This pattern looks to hold for at least the next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it holds on for even longer. La Nina commonly brings cool, wet springs with tons of mountain snow. I'm looking to spend some time looking at the cherry blossoms in the quad, but I'll definitely have to look at the radar before heading out, because it will be pretty busy for the next week.

Have a g00d one!!!

Charlie

New Quarter, Old Weather

Monday, March 26, 2012
10:34 A.M.

UW Quad: 3/22/2012

UW Quad: 3/24/2012

Both of these photos were taken from http://seattlejapanesegardencommunityblog.blogspot.com/.

It's a new quarter at UW. It's springtime in the northern hemisphere. The cherry blossons in the Quad are blooming. And, as of 10:47 A.M., the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up precisely 129.00 points. Everything is happy in the Pacific Northwest.

Except the weather.

We had a very nice stretch of weather over the weekend. Saturday and Sunday featured light winds, temperatures well into the upper 50s, and a few high clouds overhead. I hope you savored these days, though, because they'll be the last warm days we will see for a while.

You see, springtime in the Pacific Northwest is unpredictable. The sun can rise high in the sky and give you a high of 50 after a brief snow shower in the morning. I remember one spring day in 2007 when I saw heavy graupel, almost got struck by lightning (don't even get me started on this one), and saw a weak tornado form and touch down right before my very eyes. If you take a look at the ensemble chart below, you'll see just how hard it is to predict springtime weather in the Pacific Northwest. Comment courtesy of Greg Carstens.

This chart shows the different GFS ensemble members, and the operational, ensemble mean, and control models are highlighted. The climatology for the season is highlighted in red. As you can see, we have some pretty good agreement up to March 29th, with a few periods of light precipitation and near normal temperatures. Take a look at the upper-level 500mb vorticity chart of the 12z WRF-GFS initialization at 5 A.M. this morning.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Mon, 26 Mar 2012 - UW 36km 12z WRF-GFS 500mb vorticity, heights

If you look at the height lines over our area at this point, you'll see that there is a trough offshore and a ridge over our area. There may be a thermal trough down in Oregon as well. But the main thing here is that the flow over our area is light, and we are not seeing much in the way of weather. We do not have a super strong ridge overhead, and we do not have a strong zonal flow, which is generally indicative of stormy weather here.

But all of this is going to change.

Take a look at the same chart a mere 36 hours later. The trough has shifted towards us and is directing cooler air into our region.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Tue, 27 Mar 2012 - 36hr Fcst

But it gets even worse. The dreaded strong zonal flow will begin to impact our area, bringing with it rain and windy conditions, particularly for the coast. Take a look at the chart 72 hours in advance.

Valid 05:00 am PDT Thu, 29 Mar 2012 - 72hr Fcst - UW 36km 12z WRF-GFS 500mb vorticity, heights

I'm not going to give you the details right now because if you remember that ensemble chart above, there are lots of variations between the models. I also gotta find out where my math class is. But one thing is clear. We will remain cool, wet, and windy down here in the lowlands for the coming week, particularly for the latter half of it.

As for the mountains? Expect 2-4 feet of snow by Saturday. Don't put away those skis yet. :)

Charlie