I'm still here!

April 26, 2011
10:23 P.M.

Hey everybody, I know I haven't posted for the longest time, but those of you who know me know that I've had a ton on my plate and I simply have not had the time to keep this blog up. Everything is starting to settle down and I will have a lot more time in a couple weeks, after AP exams pass, but I just wanted you to know that this blog exists and I am still here! In addition, I will go to the University of Washington next year and study meteorology so I'll know a lot more about weather. Cliff (I should probably start calling him Professor Mass) knows me and knows about my blog and I am very, very excited to study with him next year.

I might as well give you a quick overview on the weather. We have been pretty cold this month, and I think we have only had one day above 60 this entire month, which is about average for this time of year. We have also been pretty wet. Modeling has inferred that we will see more low-lying spring clouds as a result of climate change, and it makes me wonder if we could even cool down during the spring as a result of global warming. Spring can give us all types of different weather and the temperatures we experience have much more to do with the position of the jet stream than anything else at this time of year. If global warming causes us to have cloudier (and rainier?) springs with more upper-level low pressure systems dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska, we will actually be cooler. But that is all speculation and I can't really back it up, it is an interesting thought though.

Looking at the models, it looks as though we will see yet another strong spring storm come through this Wednesday, with this one being stronger than most we have seen lately. It will also be cold, with the mountains having winter storm watches for around a foot of snow, with less at the passes but more at areas with additional elevation. After the front passes, we could see some thunderstorms Thursday as the already unstable post frontal air will be made even more unstable now that we have a springtime sun that is high in the sky and can cause additional warming, adding even more instability to the atmosphere and giving it energy in the form of latent heat. After Thursday, we will calm down and have somewhat normal temperatures and partly cloudy skies until we return to continued cool springtime showers next week.

Thanks for reading, and I plan to resume regular posting within the next couple weeks!

Charlie

Long-term Forecast Uncertain

Thursday, March 24, 2011
3:12 P.M.

Hey everybody, short blog today since there really isn't much going on and the forecast models that I have access to, the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Protection) GFS and NAM models, aren't painting anything interesting for the future. We have a weak deformation zone over the area, which means that the air is diverging aloft and air from the surface is rising up to fill the void, creating clouds and precipitation. The precipitation is pretty weak.

Friday night we will see a slightly consolidated frontal system shift through the area, and Saturday night will feature a similar story. The GFS then builds a strong upper ridge over the area which would deflect systems and precipitation and keep us drier and warmer than normal. I'd like that if it was the summer, but alas, it is just the spring, and I'd like to get our winter weather just a little longer.

Thankfully, there is hope for rain fans like me. The European Model, which is generally regarded as the most accurate model (we should be ashamed), shows rather heavy rains impacting our area next week. The Canadian GEM model also shows this scenario, albeit with only moderate rains. Maybe the American models will change their tone and I can publish on this blog some of the model charts. We will see...

Have a good one,
Charlie

The Warm Day Came!

Wednesday, March 23, 2011
2:13 P.M.

Would you look at that! A weak high pressure system off of our coast is creating a bubble of sunny conditions and a weak area of low pressure arriving from the south is creating offshore flow. You can see some high clouds over the area and both pockets of snow and lover level orographic clouds caused by rising air when it hits the mountains. It’s been a long time since we hit 55. How long? Try 139 days. The last time we hit 55 was November 4th. 

We will have some clouds come over the area, but they will not cause any showers, just cloudier conditions for tomorrow. After that, we will see a few showers over the next week as the flow becomes more zonal straight off the Pacific. Temperatures will be normal for this time of year or a touch below. As has been the case lately, most of the weather will go down south to California. The storm below, forecast to impact California for much of the day tomorrow, is fairly strong by spring standards. The greens denote pretty heavy precipitation.

Enjoy the warm day, we will get cooler, but warmer days are surely right around the corner.

Charlie

A Warm Day is Coming!

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

1:24 P.M.

Hey everybody, this is going to be a real quick forecast, but I do have some good news, and no, it’s not because I saved 15% on my car insurance by switching to GEICO. It has not reached 55 degrees all year long, which is amazing really. By this time last year, we had reached 55 degrees 24 times. But it looks as though that streak will end tomorrow. We will see a weak high pressure system with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and this, combined with weak offshore flow, will likely give us temperatures in the upper 50s. We might even see some 60s near the foothills. After that, our showery weather returns, with temperatures slightly below normal and the threat of some of those awesome spring thundershowers that I love oh so much.

Enjoy the warmest day of the year so far!

Charlie                                                             

Short Weather Forecast , Nuclear Power, and Japan Tsunami

Thursday, March 17, 2011
12:28 P.M.

There isn’t really much to talk about today. We have seen some strong thunderstorms over the past few days, but those will come to an end. We will see a minor storm on Friday that may cause some instability and some showers, but it won’t be anything major. After that, the storm track will shift southward over central or even southern California and give them some rain, with large amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada.
This picture below shows the upper level air flow at the 300 millibar level. This means this is the level of the atmosphere where the pressure is 300 millibars. It varies, but it is generally around 18,000 feet high. It is forecast on the UW WRF-GFS model at 11 A.M. Saturday.

As you can see, there is a large trough of low pressure with associated light upper-level winds over the Pacific Northwest, with the jet stream dipping down towards California. We will still see some showers and cooler than average temperatures, but there will be less rain, which is  good for the people who dislike rain I guess. Unfortunately, if you live in Seattle, you probably like rain, so in my opinion, this isn’t good news. But if it is in the summer, I want sun all the way and 90 degree temperatures. Nothing like swimming in Lake Washington. 
 

Yesterday, I talked about nuclear power and how we still need it. I’ve been thinking over it a little bit, and I actually think that Eastern Washington would be one of the best places to put the power plants. Any earthquake energy from Western Washington would largely be dissipated by the time it gets to Spokane or Pullman, and those places also don’t see much in the way of severe weather. Also, this would help us remove some dams and restore salmon populations. I love salmon and fishing btw, so this would be pretty awesome. And it is a large economic opportunity because since this would be one of the safest places in the country to have these plants, we could sell our energy to other places in the U.S., creating jobs and some greenbacks to spend on more important things, like replacing our viaduct (don’t even get me started on earthquakes there), our light rail system, improved agricultural opportunities, and helping make the cities on the eastside more prosperous and larger. If Washington generated all electricity via green energy (hydroelectricity, wind, and nuclear), I would be a very happy person. And although I said I didn’t really like wind power, wind power works pretty well in some places in central Washington. There is a large wind farm by Ellensburg. I still think solar power is our worst clean energy solution.

I’m at the library right now, so I still have a couple minutes before my jazz band class starts. I might as well talk about the huge whirlpool caused by the tsunami in Japan. Take a look at this bad boy!

This whirlpool in a eastern harbor of Japan was formed because of a unique combination of the rushing water and the bathymetry (topography of the sea floor) of the harbor. I hope that boat was ok!

And one more tsunami video. Absolutely amazing stuff. Tragic, but amazing. 

Thanks for reading,
Charlie