New Year and a New Pattern

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

10:01 P.M.

Greetings, my friends and fellow weather lovers. As 2009 draws to a close, we can look toward one thing in the weather department - a more active weather pattern. All I can say to this is it is about time. Let's take a look at our coming system.

This picture shows the 3 hour precip ending at 7 A.M. tomorrow. As you can see, most of the energy is headed into Oregon. Washington will still get wet later in the day tomorrow though, as the front picks up strength and moisture as it undergoes frontogenesis. What I'm really looking forward to though are the post-frontal showers after the storm.

This pic shows the 24 hour snow totals expected as of 4 P.M. New Years day. As you can see, the Olympics will see tons of snow and the Cascades will see lesser but still large amounts. I still need to get some first turns in, and hopefully this mountain snow will goad me to get off my butt and start skiing.

Happy New Year everybody! Enjoy a more active weather pattern! (and more blog posts by me as a result)

Charlie

Not much going on

Sunday, December 27, 2009

10:02 P.M.

Greetings everybody! I have to say, I'm not all that sorry that I haven't updated this blog because the weather has been unbearably boring. Most people like this "nice" weather but for me "nice" weather consists of floods, hurricane-force winds, and lightning powerful to make the galaxy rumble. That's right. The galaxy. I did get some excitement with regard to booms in my life when I shot my first shotgun today (I've already shot rifles) and I look forward to getting my hunters safety liscence and hunting in the future. However, even the boring weather created treacherous conditions on some of the regional roads, with my dad's Chevrolet Suburban fishtailing all over local streets on Whidbey Island.

We've been stuck in a pattern of inversion lately, with air above us slightly warmer than that at ground level. This is because when the air is stagnant enough, warm air will rise and cool air will sink, since warm air is lighter than cool air.

We will see a weak system Tuesday, followed by one a little stronger New Year's Eve into New Year's Day. Details get fuzzy after that but I don't see any strong storms in the near future and with El Nino taking more of a hold I don't really expect much in the way of severe weather for the rest of the winter in the Pacific Northwest. The mountains will also have their troubles getting some snowpack. But hey, it doesn't hurt to do a dance or two. :)

Charlie

Global Warming Misconceptions

Monday, December 21, 2009
11:29 P.M.

Hey everybody! There's not much to talk about in terms of weather, seeing as the pattern is pretty benign right now, but as I'm sure you are all aware of (or at least most), there was a large climate conference called Climategate. I'm not sure where exactly it was, but it was international. Cliff Mass talked about it on his blog, and I highly encourage you to check his blog out, but here are some biases I've noticed about global warming from people around and about.

Since Seattle is fairly liberal, most people here seem to think that global warming is going to do all sorts of crazy things. They think that Seattle is going to get hammered by hurricanes and snow on back to back days. Or they point to a single storm and say "global warming was solely responsible for that storm." I was on facebook the other day looking at some group or something calling for Obama to stand up for America on leading the world in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions (something I am very frustrated with - he has not kept his promises here) and all over the wall I saw people saying that global warming was going to result in snowstorms in Florida or just crazy weather anomalies that have no scientific basis, and that the whole reason the snowstorm on the east coast was occurring was because of climate change (that was quite a storm too!). It frustrates me because when I try to explain that that is not what global warming is I get dismissed as one of the "non-believers" and that people like me are going to end up destroying the world. Kinda frustrating. :(

On the other hand, there are the more conservative types who believe global warming is a hoax. There are not as many of them in Seattle but there are lots in our country. The evidence is clearly there. CO2 levels have risen dramatically since the beginning of the industrial revolution, arctic ice is melting, average temperatures have risen, etc. Of course, these people say that these don't have anything to do with man made global warming because the Earth's climate goes in phases. The Earth's climate does go in phases, but this warming has been brought on by an increase in CO2. I'm a skeptic on most things but the evidence for global warming occuring is on par with that for evolution.

The problem is that the people who have it "right" often don't get their ideas published before they are construed and edited by biased editors, so the "truth" remains relatively behind the scenes. The moderate side is the correct one in this issue, but there are only two real sides that dominate America right now, and those are the conservatives and liberals. Can't we just look at the facts and use common sense? Is that too much to ask? I'm a moderate myself and sometimes it seems like it is...
Happy Holidays!
Charlie

Not much to talk about

Thursday, December 17, 2009
9:45 P.M.

Greetings everybody, and I hope you had a good Thursday. I'm just going to make this brief because the forecast is looking essentially the same as yesterday and there isn't really much to talk about. The only thing of real interest is that the GFS now shows temps a little cooler, with lows perhaps getting around to 30 mid week, and if you couple that with a passing shower, we could see snow, but no accumulations. Other than that, not much is going on. The majority of the cold air will be passing to our east, and after about Christmas Eve we will return to a sunnier and slightly warmer regime as a ridge off the Pacific slides over the area. Have a good night!

Charlie

Heavy Showers Now

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

3:28 P.M.

Hey everybody! Look at the radar! As you can see, heavy post-frontal showers are swinging through the region after a warm front passed through today. This radar image provides a good example of what orographic enhancement is. Look at the Cascades. There are much more showers around them than around the sound. Why? Because when the westward-traveling air is forced up the topography there, it condenses into clouds, and the cloud droplets later condense into precipitation.

The weather upcoming is pretty non-eventful... snow is completely out of the question (my brother is still in denial that we didn't get any... I'm telling him to blame the news stations and not me). Another storm will arrive Thursday while Friday will have a few showers, and Saturday will largely be dry. After that, models diverge, but the ECMWF (more accurate) model gives us sorta rainy conditions but nothing too serious while our GFS model builds a strong ridge over the area. zzzzz... I'm hoping for the former. Highs would be above average (around 50) throughout the period in both scenarios.

I'm glad I walked on my pond when I did!

Charlie